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23 Sep 2020

International Economy

All eyes are on fluctuations in commodity prices...in light of China’s stockpiling policy (Current Issue No.3140)

In September 2020, China sent a positive signal in regard to its economic development plan that laid out the country’s strategies for the next five years, from 2021 through 2025. Of particular interest is China’s return to stockpiling commodities with an emphasis on food security. Such actions will lead to increased demand for Chinese agricultural products, which may drive global agricultural commodity prices to see renewed upward trend....Read more

14 Sep 2020

International Economy

Fed set to keep interest rates in a range of 0-0.25% at FOMC meeting Sep. 15-16, having passed a resolution to adjust long-term inflation in the previous month (Business Brief No.3884)

KResearch has assessed that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will continue to keep interest rates in a range of 0.0-0.25 percent at the next Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting which will be held on September 15-16, as the Fed is thought to have already used all the tools necessary to sustain the US economy. Recently, the Fed adjusted its policy rate downward to near zero percent and continuously implemented Quantitative Easing (QE). ...Read more

10 Sep 2020

International Economy

Drafting of the UK’s Internal Market Bill set to trigger no-deal Brexit by the end of 2020 (Current Issue No.3133)

Ever since the results of the EU Referendum on June 23, 2016, led to the planned withdrawal of the United Kingdom from the EU, the event that all parties concerned have hoped for is a negotiation to finalize the economic and trade relations between the UK and the EU going forward. However, after the revelation of the referendum, the UK under the leadership of Prime Minister Teresa May announced the implementation of Article 50 of the Treaty of Lisbon in March 2016 to formally pave the way for the UK’s withdrawal from the EU. However, the road to negotiations was strife-torn, and the UK went through several political trials which culminated in the change of premiership to Boris Johnson, who promised sufficient support in the UK Parliament to exercise the Withdrawal Agreement, which was delayed to January 2020 from its planned enactment in late 2019. Nevertheless, it is clear that, while four years have passed, the future relationship between the UK and the EU remains ill-defined....Read more



1 Oct 2020


ประเด็นเกี่ยวกับนโยบายกระตุ้นการใช้เหล็กภายในประเทศ (กระแสทรรศน์ ฉบับที่ 3146)

จากการที่เหล็กไทยสูญเสียความสามารถในการแข่งขันด้านราคาต่อเหล็กนำเข้าจากจีน ทำให้ผู้ผลิตเหล็กในไทยยื่นหนังสือถึงหน่วยงานรัฐเพื่อขอมาตรการช่วยเหลือ และเมื่อวันที่ 1 กันยายน 2563 ที่ผ่านมา คณะรัฐมนตรีจึงได้มีมติเห็นชอบอนุมัติหลักการร่างกฎกระทรวงกำหนดพัสดุและวิธีการจัดซื้อจัดจ้างพัสดุที่รัฐต้องการส่งเสริมหรือสนับสนุน (ฉบับที่ 2) เพิ่มหมวด 9 พัสดุ ส่งเสริมพัสดุที่ผลิตในประเทศ ศูนย์วิจัยกสิกรไทยมองว่า นโยบายนี้น่าจะช่วยเพิ่มการผลิตเหล็กในประเทศอีกปีละประมาณ 3.6 แสนตันต่อปี ในช่วง 3 ปีข้างหน้า ทำให้อัตราการใช้กำลังการผลิต เพิ่มจาก 55% เป็น 58.6% ในขณะเดียวกันอาจมีผลให้ต้นทุนก่อสร้างในโครงการภาครัฐเพิ่มขึ้นประมาน 0.5-0.8%...Read more

24 Sep 2020


Mooncake Market 2020: Turnover set to contract by 15.8%, reflecting grim economic conditions (Current Issue No.3141)

KResearch expects the mooncake market for 2020 to be valued at an estimated THB800 million, or a contraction of 15.8 percent YoY, as the market has suffered a severe setback from deteriorating purchasing power as a result of COVID-19. This projected fall in market value is attributed to fewer participants in this year’s Mid-Autumn Festival and an amount of mooncake purchases which has declined on average....Read more

24 Sep 2020


August Exports Contracted Slower than Expected at 7.9%, but Close Attention Must be Paid to Global Economic Risks (Business Brief No.3886)

Thailand’s outward trade contracted 7.9 percent YoY in August 2020. As a result, 8M20 exports shrank 7.8 percent YoY. Excluding oil, gold and arms exports, Thai shipments, however, contracted 14.1 percent YoY in August 2020, accelerating over the 13.0 percent YoY shrinkage reported for July 2020. August gold exports skyrocketed 71.5 percent YoY, whereas shipments of industrial and agricultural exports recorded steady contractions, in particular automobiles, machinery, iron, integrated circuits, plastic pellets, refined petroleum products, rubber, fresh, chilled and frozen fruit, rice and refined sugar. Steady export growth were seen in work-form-home related products, home electrical appliances, products related to the prevention and reduction of disease transmission, some types of food, rubber gloves, cassava products, canned tuna, pet food, refrigerators, microwave ovens, washing machines, computers, furniture and related parts. ...Read more



25 Sep 2020

Financial Markets

The Baht weakened while the SET fell on negative factors both at home and abroad

The Baht pared losses somewhat, after having hit an almost 2-month low of THB31.67/USD. The Baht weakened along with falling risky assets and other regional currencies. Its sentiment was also weighed down by domestic political factors. Meanwhile, the US dollar rose on concerns about the global economic outlook and higher risk of the COVID-19 situation in many countries, especially in Europe. The Baht’s losses were capped later in the week while market participations awaited key events next week....Read more

18 Sep 2020

Financial Markets

The Baht strengthened while the SET fluctuated but remained positive over-week

The Baht strengthened further in line with the Yuan and other regional currencies, supported by news regarding the development of COVID-19 vaccines. Meanwhile, the US dollar faced sell-offs after the Fed signaled an easing monetary policy stance and vowed to keep low interest rates for a longer period. The US dollar was also pressured by weak US economic data (i.e. an unexpected fall in housing starts in August). A stronger Baht was also in line with net foreign bond buying orders. ...Read more

11 Sep 2020

Financial Institutions

Understanding THOR … New Thai Reference Rate (Business Brief No.3883)

Preparedness for a new context in the financial world resulting from permanent cessation of the London Interbank Offer Rate (LIBOR) as an interest rate benchmark for financial transactions is an important mission of financial regulatory authorities in many countries. For Thailand, the Bank of Thailand (BOT) began promoting the Thai Overnight Repurchase Rate (THOR) in April 2020, representing an important milestone for the development of an overnight repurchase reference rate for borrowing in Thai Baht. The move is consistent with other countries, such as the US, which has developed the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) to potentially be used as a US Dollar interest rate benchmark after LIBOR discontinuation....Read more