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Industry Outlook Analysis

5 May 2020


COVID-19 Causes New Normal of Rubber Prices...Thailand Must Adjust to Era of Prolonged Low Rubber Prices (Current Issue No.3106)

KResearch assesses that the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic in 2020 will be a short-term factor causing the rubber price structure to change over the long term. This represents an important turning point that will result in a new normal of rubber prices, i.e., rubber prices will likely move within a... Read more

24 Apr 2020


COVID-19 Causes 2020 Thai Exports to US to shrink for the First Time in 10 Years at 9.2% (Current Issue No.3101)

Thai exports to the US contracted 2.7 percent YoY in 1Q20. Excluding products related to arms and tanks for military drills, which caused our export base to become volatile, our shipments to the US grew 15.8 percent YoY. The increase was supported by the US-China trade war, which helped bolster our ... Read more

21 Apr 2020


Thai Exports Grew 0.9% in 1Q20 bolstered by Short-Term Gold and Electronics Shipments (Business Brief No.3862)

The value of Thailand’s outward trade reverted to growth for the first time in five quarters of 0.9 percent YoY in 1Q20, boosted by favorable gold and electronics shipments. However, oil-related exports were dampened by plummeting crude oil prices. ... Read more

10 Apr 2020


China moves to invest and expand its automobile market abroad; quick preparations needed for Thailand, especially in EVs (Current Issue No.3097)

At present, China has established a rising trend in car exports and increasingly invested in automobile production across multiple countries around the world, especially in the category of electric vehicles (EV), which have been considerably well-received, even in the automobile markets of developed... Read more

10 Apr 2020


COVID-19 Pandemic in Neighboring Countries to Cause 2020 Border and Cross-Border Trade to Shrink 12.8% (Current Issue No.3098)

Plummeting oil prices and measures aimed at combating the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic in some of Thailand’s neighboring countries caused our border-trade and cross-border exports to contract 8.6 percent YoY during 2M20. The spread of the COVID-10 respiratory disease in all member ASEAN states a... Read more

9 Apr 2020


Hybrid Biomass Community Power Plants Meet Business Goals and Bolster Farm Income (Current Issue No.3096)

Community power plant project is considered one of the important strategic policies to not only build sustainability in energy consumption across communities, but also generate extra income for local residents via sales of agricultural-based materials as fuel. Biomass community power plants may help... Read more

3 Apr 2020


COVID-19 Bolsters Demand and Retail Egg Prices During Most of 2020 (Current Issue No.3095)

Chicken eggs are low-cost source of protein. However, as demand for eggs has soared amid fears over the COVID-19 pandemic, they have been in short supply in several areas. As a result, egg prices skyrocketed during March 2020, triggering concern among consumers. To help alleviate such as an impact o... Read more

1 Apr 2020


Thai rice exports for 2020 slip further… Developing soft white rice into a ‘Fighting Product’ (Current Issue No.3094)

Thai rice exports for 2020 may face the same negative conditions that continue to plague all aspects of trade from the previous year, whether it is a highly competitive global market, world economic problems, depreciation of the Baht, drought, the change in China’s role from importer to exporter, or... Read more

30 Mar 2020


Retail and Restaurant Businesses: Focus on Online Channel Needed amid COVID-19 Outbreak (Current Issue No.3093)

Retail and restaurant businesses will continue to face challenges ahead as steady increases in the number of COVID-19 infections in Thailand have prompted the government to introduce a number of measures, including a temporary closure of certain venues and declaration of a state of emergency, to cur... Read more

27 Mar 2020


Despite the COVID-19 crisis, exports of fresh, chilled and frozen chicken to China are expected to grow up to 20 percent in 2020 (Current Issue No.3092)

Fresh, chilled and frozen chicken are commodities that Thailand can still make good profit from in China, even though closures of key Chinese trade ports to control the spread of COVID-19 from post-Chinese New Year to mid-February 2020 led to some delays and suspension of shipments of fresh, chilled... Read more

23 Mar 2020


Gold – Crude Oil: Major Factors affecting Thai Exports in Feb.2020 (Business Brief No.3856)

Thai Exports in February 2020 remained a hodgepodge of temporary factors, being supported by consistent growth in gold exports but inhibited by a high base effect as a result of munitions rexports and crude oil prices in the preceding year. Meanwhile, the COVID-19 outbreak continued to affect Thai e... Read more

9 Mar 2020


Restaurant Business, 2020: Turnover to Decline by THB26.5-36.5 billion due to COVID-19 Fears (Current Issue No.3090)

The coronavirus (COVID-19) epidemic has had a broad impact on many industries. One of the major casualties is the restaurant business because the slowdown in the number of international tourist arrivals to Thailand has adversely affected food and beverage spending, which accounts for roughly 15 perc... Read more

5 Mar 2020


COVID-19 and Sagging Purchasing Power Threaten Thai Retail Market…2020 Turnover Projected to Contract 0.8-2.2% (Current Issue No.3089

We at KResearch view that turnover in the Thai retail market may report a sharp contraction during 1H20 due to a number of factors. These include risk stemming from the COVID-19 outbreak, which is expected to persist during 1H20, and continuing weakness seen in domestic purchasing power resulting fr... Read more

26 Feb 2020


Biofuel Faces Challenges from Car Owners….New Stimuli Needed to Bolster Demand (Current Issue No.3088)

Demand for biofuel blended with diesel and gasoline fuels has increased steadily in recent years, supported by pricing mechanism and the increase in the number of biofuel-powered vehicles. Although prices of biofuel blends are attractive, thanks to state subsidies, such blends with lower proportion ... Read more

24 Feb 2020


2020 Thai Fruit Exports May Shrink on COVID-19 while NTMs Present Long-Term Challenge (Current Issue No.3087)

The novel coronavirus (COVID-19) epidemic has forced China to close its key border checkpoints and extend the Lunar New Year holidays to February. In addition, cross-border land transportation routes from Vietnam to China have contemporarily been suspended to monitor the COVID-19 outbreak, prompting... Read more

14 Feb 2020


COVID-19 affects 2020 Thai auto market to the tune of 900,000 units and Thai OEM parts for local market and exports (Current Issue No.3086)

The outbreak of novel coronavirus (COVID-19) with the epicenter in China has become unpredictable as it is spreading, adversely affecting the economy worldwide, including China’s automotive sector and the global auto industry, including Thailand’s. All automotive sectors are suffering contraction. C... Read more

12 Feb 2020


Investment in 5G technology...telecom operators face various challenges in terms of market, costs and technology (Current Issue No.3084)

In 2020, Thailand’s wireless communication technology is about to experience another turning point. The National Broadcasting and Telecommunications Commission (NBTC) will auction the 5G spectrum in the 700 MHz, 1800 MHz, 2600 MHz and 26 GHz frequency bands on February 16, 2020, aiming to roll out t... Read more

6 Feb 2020


Thai Manufacturing Sector May Lose at Least USD1.5 Billion amid Coronavirus Crisis in China (Current Issue No.3081)

The World Health Organization, January 30, 2020, declared that the novel coronavirus (2019 n-CoV) outbreak is a public health emergency of international concern as the virus has spread internationally. In China, the 2019 n-CoV epidemic, which originated in Wuhan, Hubei province, has also spread to o... Read more

5 Feb 2020


Coronavirus outbreak dampens airline business, causing Thai airline business value to contract by 4.3-6.2 percent. (Current Issue No.3080)

The airline businesses have faced tough challenges due to pricing competition, which has steadily reduced the average airfares. Moreover, the demand for air travel began to slow, resulting in a drop in airline business value for the first time in 2019 to 314 billion Baht.... Read more

4 Feb 2020


2020 Car Exports: Shrinking at Least 3% as Thailand’s Trade Partner Economies Hurt by Novel Coronavirus Outbreaks (Current Issue No.3079)

2020 may be another difficult year for Thai car exports. Despite a positive factor, i.e., a likelihood that the Baht may not be as strong as that seen in 2019, there are a number of factors that may inevitably cause Thai car shipments to shrink in 2020. These include economic problems continuing fro... Read more

31 Jan 2020


The ban on single-use plastic bags…pushes business of more than 400 million eco - friendly bags in 2020 (Current Issue No.3078)

From January 1, 2020, Thailand has begun a campaign to ban single-use plastic bags under the Plastic Waste Management Road Map 2018-2030 of the Pollution Control Department. KResearch views that the ban will significantly reduce the amount of single-use plastic bags. It will affect supply chains of ... Read more

24 Jan 2020


Closely monitoring effects from an outbreak of 2019 Novel Coronavirus in China on 2020 Chinese tourism market in Thailand (Current Issue No.3077)

The outbreak of the 2019 Novel Coronavirus (n-CoV) that originated in Wuhan, Hubei province, in late 2019 has caused more patients to sicken and the death toll has risen. Meanwhile, more confirmed cases have been found in other Asian countries, including Thailand, and the US. The Chinese authoritie... Read more

22 Jan 2020


2019 Exports Contracted 2.65% ... Strong Baht and Slowing Global Economy Represent Risks to 2020 Exports (Business Brief No.3845)

The total value of Thai exports came in at USD246,244.5 million, shrinking 2.65 percent YoY in 2019 while the total import value reached USD236,639.9 million, contracting 4.66 percent YoY. As a result, Thailand enjoyed a trade surplus for the fifth consecutive year of USD9,604.6 million.... Read more

17 Jan 2020


Drought Crisis Likely in 2020…Initial Economic Costs Estimated at about THB17-19 Billion (Current Issue No.3074)

Drought has arrived earlier than the previous year in 2020 and it is expected to be prolonged because water levels at dams across the country have declined 33.1 percent YoY. Such water levels are more critical than those seen during the severe drought reported in 2015.... Read more

7 Jan 2020


The first-phase MRO at U-Tapao will almost double growth of Thailand’s aviation maintenance and repair market; Thailand should focus on wide-body aircraft to avoid competition with other main competitors in ASEAN (Current Issue No.3069)

Thailand is one of the aviation hubs in the Asia Pacific region, which is expected to experience a rising demand for aviation maintenance and repair services in the future. The future outlook has become clearer after a cooperative agreement for a Maintenance, Repair, and Overhaul (MRO) facility at U... Read more

3 Jan 2020


2020 is a challenging year for inbound tourism…with international travelers expected to increase 2.0%-3.0% or 40.5-40.9 million people (Current Issue No.3068)

Inbound tourism in 2020 faces a daunting prospect, which affects the number of international tourists and their spending. The market lacks new factors while risks remain and have even worsened. For example, the gloomy global economic sentiment could discourage the international travelers’ activities... Read more

2 Jan 2020


In 2020, restaurant business braces for challenges amid changing forms of competition as the industry is expected to reach THB437– 441 billion (Current Issue No.3067)

The restaurant business is one of the most important to the country’s service sector and economy with small and big operators involved and the turnover exceeding 400 billion Baht, representing 4.7 percent of the gross domestic product (GDP) of the service sector.... Read more

27 Dec 2019


Private Hospitals, 2020: Profit Pressured by Numerous Factors…Income Generated from Non-Hospital Businesses Needed (Current Issue No.3066)

We at KResearch expect that net profit of Thai private hospitals (listed on the Stock Exchange of Thailand) will grow 3-6 percent in 2020, declining from the 6-9 percent pace projected for 2019. Private hospitals targeting high- to medium-income patients, in particular, will likely see their profit ... Read more

26 Dec 2019


2020 Thai agricultural direction…will be driven by the government’s policy (Current Issue No.3065)

The outlook of Thai agricultural products in 2020 will continue to be under pressure from drought and the global economic slowdown. Thailand may face severe drought conditions, which will continue from 2019. As of December 25, 2019, the amount of usable water in the dams nationwide stood at 21,197 ... Read more

23 Dec 2019


Global economic slump sinks Thai exports, leading to a contraction for a fourth-straight month in November 2019 (Business Brief No.3840)

Thai exports in November 2019 totaled USD19.657 billion, dropping below USD20 billion for the first time in seven months and plunging for four consecutive months by 7.4 percent YoY, which marks the worst contraction in 43 months. Consequently, Thai exports in the first 11 months (Jan-Nov) of 2019 sh... Read more

12 Dec 2019


Ready-to-Eat Food Market, 2020: Growing 3-5%...Adjustments to Market Conditions and Weak Consumer Purchasing Power Needed (Current Issue No.3060)

We at KResearch view that turnover in the ready-to-eat food market may reach THB20.2-20.5 billion, increasing 3.0-5.0 percent YoY in 2020, thanks to the diversity of new products developed by related entrepreneurs as a result of heightened competition. Meanwhile, the domestic food and beverage marke... Read more

4 Dec 2019


Auto market in 2020 is likely to remain unchanged from 2019 at best… while the market for eco cars and EVs is set to grow (Current Issue No.3059)

KResearch views that the overall auto sales throughout 2019 will contract 2.5 percent from 2018, or totaling 1,015,000 units. The Bank of Thailand’s control measure for auto loan approval, launched in the middle of this year, has become a key factor pressuring auto loan sales.... Read more

28 Nov 2019


Tech disruption due to the trend for electric vehicles globally is affecting auto part producers, especially over 600 Tier-2 producers after 2027 (Current Issue No.3057)

In the past 2 to 3 years, the automobile industry has awakened to the realization that the era of electric vehicles (EV) is coming, resulting in a massive restructuring of the automotive part supply chain worldwide, including Thailand, in 2 aspects; the internal combustion engine (ICE) supply chain ... Read more

28 Nov 2019


Emergence of E-Fulfillment Centers to Transform Thai Warehouse Business Amid Thriving E-Commerce (Current Issue No.3058)

Currently, e-marketplace has begun to increase investment in e- fulfillment centers because e-fulfillment is the key to their business; i.e., it can help create the most satisfying service experience to customers, leading to repeat purchases and bolster sales other than just a product delivery servi... Read more

27 Nov 2019

Real Estate and Construction

New Aid Package to Bolster Residential Property Market in 4Q19 (Current Issue No.3056)

The Cabinet, November 26, 2019, approved new economic stimuli for 4Q19. These include a 50,000-Baht subsidy on a home purchase down payment to ease financial burden of new home buyers, being the government’s third property stimulus measure so far this year. ... Read more

25 Nov 2019


10M19 Shipments Shrank 2.35% 2019 Export Growth Forecast Revised Downward to (-) 2.5% (Business Brief No.3834)

The value of Thai exports reached USD20,757.78 million in October 2019, shrinking 4.54 percent YoY. As a result, 10M19 shipments contracted at a faster pace than that seen during 9M19 of 2.35 percent YoY. The shrinkage in October exports was due to a number of factors, including persistent sluggishn... Read more

15 Nov 2019


Unlocking of Thai-Myanmar land transport bottleneck, border trade is set to turn around in 2020 (Current Issue No.3055)

The latest development at the Thailand-Myanmar border this year is very interesting with the opening of the second Thai-Myanmar Friendship Bridge at the Mae Sot checkpoint in Tak on October 31, 2019. The new bridge was built to ease traffic congestion at the first friendship bridge. Moreover, the au... Read more

11 Nov 2019


Thailand Will Become an Aged Society in 2022 at the Earliest Amid Business Opportunities and Challenges in Terms of Income (Current Issue No.3053)

The rapid aging of population is being seen in many developing countries, while most advanced nations have become full-fledged aging societies. Thailand has been an aging society since 2005 and is expected to become an aged society in 2022 or three years at the earliest. Currently, about 6-8 provinc... Read more

8 Nov 2019


E Logistics Marketplace: Opportunity for Thai carriers amid intensifying competition in the digital era (Current Issue No.3051)

Over the past five years, Thai companies offering road transport services have faced fiercer competition due to an expansion of international logistics giants in Thailand. In the past, these international logistics giants used to focus on serving export oriented industrial manufacturers. Recently... Read more

8 Nov 2019


Retail Trade, 2020: Growing 2.8%...Weak Purchasing Power Continues to Dampen Business (Current Issue No.3052)

As subdued consumer purchasing power continues to pressure the retail business, we at KResearch expect that retail sales will grow approximately 2.7-3.0 percent YoY in 2020, against the 3.1 percent pace projected for 2019. Traditional retail stores and hypermarkets, focusing on grassroots and low-to... Read more

7 Nov 2019


E-Sports drives the gaming industry transition from recreation toward professional sports events to create opportunities for related businesses (Current Issue No.3049)

The multi-sport 30th SEA Games to be held from November 30 – December 11, 2019 in the Philippines will include E-Sports for the first time with the presence of Thai contestants, who are now gearing up to get ready for the competition.... Read more

5 Nov 2019


Hybrid Pickup as Thailand’s New Product Champion is Key to Bolster Pickup Export Growth to Europe to over 47% in Five Years (Current Issue No.3048)

Europe is another important market for Thailand’s pickup exports. However, because of more stringent environmental measures for commercial vehicles in Europe, we at KResearch view that most of Thai pickups shipped to Europe will inevitably have to be upgraded to hybrid pickups over the near future. ... Read more

30 Oct 2019


US GSP Cut: Thai Businesses Need to Brace for Uncertainties Ahead (Current Issue No.3047)

The US, October 25, 2019, announced the suspension of trade preferences for Thailand under the Generalized System of Preference (GSP), covering 573 items and costing approximately USD1.3 billion, effective over the next six months or April 25, 2020. Items that will no longer be eligible for GSP bene... Read more

28 Oct 2019


Upgrade Thai plastic resin quality to become a production base for internationally-accredited medical devices (Current Issue No.3046)

Thailand has so far relied on the imported materials for medical equipment production such as high-quality catheters, even though the Thai plastic industry is regarded as having a solid base throughout the supply chain. However, Thailand’s upstream and midstream manufacturers have focused on product... Read more

24 Oct 2019


Traceability in Agricultural Products to Bolster Thai Organic Product Market (Current Issue No.3045)

The agricultural traceability system serves as an important tool to link production data in each supply chain. The increasing role of modern agricultural technologies will support the adoption of traceability in the entire production process. ... Read more

22 Oct 2019


4Q19: Bangkokians are travelling inside the country more… tourism receipts expected to hit 60 billion Baht (Current Issue No.3043)

During October-December 2019, 76.9 percent of people living in Bangkok have planned to travel, up slightly from the survey in the same period last year; 22.2 percent of the sampled group said the government’s tourism stimulus measures (in October-November 2019) affect their decisions to travel.... Read more

22 Oct 2019

Real Estate and Construction

The reduction in transaction fees for property sector helps boost the market amid various challenging issues (Current Issue No.3044)

Since the beginning of 2019, the residential property market has faced several challenges due to a slowing economy, which affects the confidence of buyers. Moreover, the purchasing power of consumers has not fully recovered. The loan-to-value (LTV) ratio requirement, designed to control the mortgage... Read more

21 Oct 2019


Slowing economy causes Thai exports (excluding gold) in 3Q19 to shrink 4.5%, exports in 4Q19 may come back into positive territory due to front-loading (Business Brief No.3827)

Thai exports in September fell from the previous month, lower than the consensus of the analysts. The lackluster performance is in line with exports of other countries in the region which were affected by the worse-than-expected global economy and the prolonged trade war between the US and China. Ou... Read more

18 Oct 2019


Growth of Thailand’s F&B exports in 2020 is expected to decelerate; consumer trends will determine future export direction (Current Issue No.3042)

KResearch predicts that Thailand’s food and beverage exports in 2019 will increase 3.5 percent YoY, or equivalent to USD26.6 billion, driven by key export items, namely, fresh and frozen and chilled fruit, poultry products (chicken), wheat products, other ready meals and non-alcoholic beverages whic... Read more

10 Oct 2019


Number of European Tourists Visiting Thailand Projected to Reach 6.66 Million, Shrinking 1.5% YoY in 2019 (Current Issue No.3040)

Europe is Thailand’s important foreign tourist market because a large number of European tourists tends to visit Thailand during the final quarter of every year. In addition, they typically take long vocations here and help generate substantial income for travel-related businesses.... Read more

3 Oct 2019


Thai electronic industry opportunity…is presented by the advent of EV and IoT electrical appliances which will drive exports by additional USD1.3 billion in 3 years (Current Issue No.3037)

Thailand’s electronic industry is about to reach a saturation point, and its stance in the global supply chains has gradually become weaker. Thailand, therefore, needs to speed up reforming its electronic industry in line with the evolving technology products in the world market, instead of trying t... Read more

26 Sep 2019


Growth Seen in Chinese Tourists during the Remainder of 2019, Bringing Total Arrivals to 10.80-10.99 Million in 2019 (Current Issue No.3035)

The number of Chinese tourist arrivals to Thailand is recovering gradually, with growth seen for the first time in July through to August 2019 at 1 million visitors. The rebound was attributable to a number of factors, including a visa on arrival (VOA) fee reduction scheme, proactive marketing campa... Read more

24 Sep 2019


Turnover in Last-mile Delivery Business May Reach THB36 Billion in 2020 amid Challenges (Current Issue No.3033)

We at KResearch expect that the last-mile delivery business will grow steadily at 11.0 percent p.a. over the next 2-3 years. Its turnover is projected to reach approximately THB36-37 billion in 2020, supported chiefly by steady growth in the e-commerce business in terms of the number of online shopp... Read more

23 Sep 2019


As neighboring countries enter global supply chains, Thai industry must safeguard its competitive edge (Current Issue No.3032)

Thailand may lose its comparative advantage and soon be surpassed by emerging countries such as Vietnam mainly because Thailand is no longer competitive in terms of labor cost. This is particularly evident in the electronics and textile and apparel industries. Although Thai industry still has a comp... Read more

20 Sep 2019


8M19 Exports Contracted 2.2% while Trade Surplus Continues to Drive up the Baht (Business Brief No.3821)

The slowing global economy, persistent trade war and strong Baht caused Thailand’s outward trade to shrink 2.2 percent p.a. during 8M19. The value of August exports reverted to a contraction of 4.0 percent p.a. However, our industrial exports overall to the US continued to grow, including computers,... Read more

13 Sep 2019


Income Guarantee for Rice, Rubber and Oil Palm Farmers to Bolster 2019 Farm Income Growth to 3.5-3.8% (Current Issue No.3031)

As part of the efforts to lift farm income, the government has a policy of guaranteeing income for farmers growing important crops: i.e., rice, rubber, oil palm, sugarcane, cassava and maize, during 4Q19. The Cabinet, August 27, 2019, approved the income guarantee program for rice farmers for the fi... Read more

9 Sep 2019


Mooncake market in 2019: Price factor...pushes market value up 2.1% (Current Issue No.3029)

KResearch has surveyed consumer behavior during the Mid-Autumn Festival this year and found that most Thais are still interested in buying mooncakes with the proportion of mooncake purchases rising to 61.4 percent in 2019 from 59.6 percent registered in 2018. Most consumers buy Chinese delicacies fo... Read more

28 Aug 2019


Thai Luxury Car Exports to China Look Promising Amid the US-China Trade War (Current Issue No.3026)

Amid a new round of the US-China trade dispute, China has announced a 25 percent tariff hike on US car imports, effective December 15, 2019. This is expected to adversely affect US car shipments to China later on. However, it may benefit Thailand because luxury carmakers, namely BMW and Mercedes Ben... Read more

28 Aug 2019


Supply shortage pushes glutinous rice prices up and it is expected to increase expenditures on food by 2.3-3.2% (Current Issue No.3027)

Domestic prices of glutinous rice rose sharply due to a supply shortage of glutinous paddy during the main crop season 2018/2019 as farmers shifted to grow more Hom Mali fragrant rice. Therefore, the main-crop glutinous rice output fell 1.18 percent YoY. Moreover, the widespread drought, resulting i... Read more

23 Aug 2019


2019 Thai Car Shipments to Shrink 2.7%, But Pick-Up Truck Exports May Grow 2.4%...FTA Negotiations, Especially with EU Needed to Maintain Export Growth (Current Issue No.3025)

KResearch projects that Thai car exports overall may contract 2.7 percent to 1,110,000 units in 2019, dampened by a number of factors. These include the protracted trade war, stronger Baht and substantial declines in our automobile shipments to major markets, namely Australia, as they are experienc... Read more

21 Aug 2019


July Thai exports resume growth as gold shipments surge, 3Q19 exports set to rise before the US imposes tariffs on China (Business Brief No.3815)

Surging gold exports for the second consecutive month helped Thai shipments overall to resume growth for the first time in five months in July 2019. The value of July shipments came in at USD21,205 million, increasing 4.28 percent YoY, driven partly by skyrocketing gold exports for the second conse... Read more

20 Aug 2019


Tourism Stimuli to Help Bolster Domestic Tourism Income to THB1.12 Trillion in 2019 (Current Issue No.3024)

On August 20, 2019, aside from the extension of visa-on-arrival fee waiver for Chinese and Indian citizens, which is scheduled to expire at the end of October 2019, to the end of April 2020, the Cabinet also approved a number of measures, aimed at stimulating domestic tourism. These include: 1) A 1,... Read more

14 Aug 2019


Hong Kong’s protests take a toll on economy…causing Thai exports to lose USD500-900 million (Current Issue No.3021)

Hong Kong’s protests have escalated to the shutdown of Hong Kong international airport, shaking the reputation of one of the Asian financial hubs. Air transportation for passenger and cargo is disrupted. KResearch views that since the volume of Thailand’s outbound shipments to Hong Kong is small; H... Read more

13 Aug 2019


Hong Kong Airport shutdown will affect earnings from inbound Hong Kong tourists to at least THB1.4 billion (Current Issue No.3020)

The standoff between the authorities and protesters in Hong Kong since June 2019 has escalated to the airport shutdown last weekend from August 9-12, 2019. Flights were cancelled with chaotic effects spreading out across the island. Although the airport reopened on August 13, 2019, uncertainty still... Read more

9 Aug 2019


Closely watch the State Oil Fund Act 2019 ... and future of biofuels (Current Issue No.3019)

The State Oil Fund Act 2019, effective on September 24, 2019, will terminate price subsidies for biofuels within three years. Nonetheless, the government has not announced criteria or regulations in the aftermath of price subsidy abrogation. KResearch views that the termination of the price subsidy ... Read more

8 Aug 2019


Electric vehicle sales in 2019 expected to reach 32,000 units, surging 61%, while overall vehicle sales growing only 1.8% (Business Brief No.3018)

For the vehicle market in 2019, KResearch views that although the auto market registered decent growth in 1H19, there are negative factors dragging on the market in 2H19, especially the Bank of Thailand’s measures to control auto loans approved by commercial banks. Consequently, auto sales in 2H19 ... Read more

5 Aug 2019

Real Estate and Construction

Consumer purchasing power of residential property in Greater Bangkok has not fully recovered, leading to a high number of unsold units in 2019 (Current Issue No.3014)

The residential property market in Bangkok Metropolitan Region in the remainder of 2019 still faces several challenges, prompting developers to adopt a cautious approach in launching new projects and adjust their business plans in response to the market conditions in 2H19. Some have shifted to pro... Read more

23 Jul 2019


Off-season drought in 2019 hits output of main season rice crop…damaging over THB15 billion (Current Issue No.3011)

The off-season drought situation in 2019 (May-July 2019) has caused extensive damage. The influence of a mild El Nino condition has resulted in lower than normal rainfall. The amount of water in the dams remains low, adversely affecting main agricultural products such as in-season rice that farmer... Read more

22 Jul 2019


Cassava mosaic virus may not damage output in 2019...but still poses challenges for the government to manage (Current Issue No.3010)

Regarding the ongoing cassava mosaic virus epidemic, KResearch views that in 2019 the cassava mosaic virus epidemic may not damage the overall cassava output for this year because normally a small amount of cassava will enter the market in the second half of the year. The cassava price in 2H19 is li... Read more

22 Jul 2019


1H19 Thai Exports Contracted 2.9%, but Growth Seen in 2H19 on Low Base of 2H18 (Business Brief No.3809)

Skyrocketing gold exports supported Thai shipments to shrink at a slower pace in June 2019. Thailand’s June outward trade reached USD21,409.3 million, representing a contraction for the fourth consecutive month at 2.15 percent YoY. The shrinkage, however, was slower than those reported during the pr... Read more

18 Jul 2019


Over 22% of Thai Engine Parts Value May Disappear in 20 Years amid Growth in EV and Supply Chain Restructuring of Japanese Car Makers (Current Issue No.3009)

Growth in the global electric vehicle (EV) market currently has prompted Japanese car makers to restructure their supply chains by adopting horizontal specialization. Under this strategy, they have joined forces with their partners to develop a single platform. This has benefited Thai auto parts mak... Read more

9 Jul 2019


2019 Thai Chicken Exports to China Projected to Skyrocket over 265% amid ASF Outbreak and China’s Opening Up its Market to Import Chicken Products from Thailand (Current Issue No.3006)

Due to China’s African swine fever (ASF) outbreak, China may experience the shortage of pork meat for domestic consumption and need to import other protein sources from other countries. We at KResearch view that the incident will likely benefit Thai livestock products, especially chicken products ex... Read more

28 Jun 2019


Green movement ... drives an expansion of bioplastics (Current Issue No.3002)

The “Green business trend” has prompted many countries to introduce campaigns to reduce the use of plastics which are not easily degradable, especially single-use plastics for food and beverage packaging. Therefore, renewable materials, namely bioplastics have seen a rapid growth with an average com... Read more

28 Jun 2019


Inbound tourism in 2H19 improves slightly from 1H19… KR keeps the projection for 2019 international visitors at 39.0-39.8 million (Current Issue No.3003)

In 1H19, inbound tourism slowed due to various factors; whereas, the overall number of tourists and slowing growth rate were as expected (party due to high base effect in 2018), in spite of some differences in details in each market. For example, the number of Chinese tourists is lower than expec... Read more

25 Jun 2019


Wood Pellets: Japanese market will drive outbound shipments from Thailand from 2020 (Current Issue No.3000)

KResearch views that the wood pellet market in Japan is expanding significantly to serve the local power sector. The demand for wood pellets in Japan is expected to increase to 5 million tons in 2022 from 1.2 million tons in 2019. However, Japan has the capacity to produce only 126,000 tons of wood ... Read more

21 Jun 2019


Thai exports continue to contract in 2Q19 … outbound shipments in 2019 expected to fall flat (Business Brief No.3806)

The trade war between the US and China has had repercussions across the globe and slowed down the international trade. In the first two months of 2Q19, Thai exports continued to contract, with the outbound shipments in May 2019 totaling USD21.018 billion, a drop of 5.79 percent YoY. Hence, Thai expo... Read more

14 Jun 2019


2019 Motorcycle Sales Projected to Shrink 2% on the Sluggish Economy while Environmental Measures May Drive Up Prices of Some Models in 2020 (Current Issue No.2999)

The government’s controls on air pollution, including the Euro 4 emission standards and new excise tax on motorcycles, based on carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, which are expected to be enforced at the beginning of 2020, will likely have a varying effect on motorcycle price ahead. ... Read more

30 May 2019


Thailand Not Added to US Currency Manipulation Watchlist, But at Risk of Trade Pressure (Current Issue No.2998)

The US Department of Treasury issued the report on macroeconomic and foreign exchange policies of the US’ major trade partners on May 28, 2019, which is about a month behind the original schedule. The report does not specifically label any country as a currency manipulator in order to bolster advant... Read more

24 May 2019


Urgent task of the new government Speed up Thai-EU trade agreement (Current Issue No.2997)

Thai exports to major markets are under pressure from the escalating trade war, which is likely to linger through the end of the year. Moreover, Thai exports may lose market share in the European Union (EU) to neighboring ASEAN countries in the near future, if the EU can conclude bilateral trade dea... Read more

22 May 2019


Competition among food delivery apps continues to push food delivery business to THB33-35 billion in 2019 (Current Issue No.2995)

Food delivery applications are an example of ‘digital disruption’, in which digital technology transforms not only consumer behavior but also restaurants’ food supply chains. Additionally, food ordering apps have propelled the food delivery business to enjoy an annual growth rate of over 10 percent ... Read more

22 May 2019


Converting Agricultural Waste into Value-Added Bio-Fuel (Current Issue No.2996)

A rapid rise in demand for bio-fuel is attributable to several basic reasons. These include concern over the shortage of fossil-based fuels and the need to reduce dependency on such fuels by turning to bio-fuel that is more environment friendly as it helps cut greenhouse gas emissions, increase farm... Read more

22 May 2019


Slowing global economy…. pressures Thai exports in April 2019 to contract 2.6%, while export growth in 2019 may drop below KR original forecast of 2.5-3.5% (Business Brief No.3802)

Slowing global economy pressures Thai exports in April 2019 to contract for a second consecutive month. The outbound shipment of Thai goods in April 2019 totaled USD18,555.6 million, declining 2.57 percent YoY. Consequently, Thai exports in the first four months of 2019 dropped 1.86 percent YoY, a ... Read more

17 May 2019


Plant-based protein … Production opportunity responding to the health movement (Current Issue No.2994)

With the growing popularity of plant-based protein, consumer behavior has begun to change. They have reduced their intake of meat and shifted toward protein derived from non-meat food sources. Meanwhile, there is an emerging movement advocating the consumption of plant-based protein instead of meat ... Read more

15 May 2019


Asia Markets to Boost 2019 Export Growth of Thai Big Bikes to 10% Export Value of Small Big Bikes to Overtake Large Big Bikes in 3 Years (Current Issue No.2993)

The domestic and export markets of Thai motorcycles have become saturated. However, the outlook for domestic sales and exports of big bikes remains promising. This has steadily attracted the world’s major big bike makers to invest in Thailand, making us one of the leading big bike manufacturing and ... Read more

10 May 2019


Prolonged Drought in 2019 May Result in about THB1 Billion in Economic Loss (Current Issue No.2991)

As drought is projected to last until July 2019 instead of the end of May forecasted before, based on low water levels in reservoirs, especially in the central and northeastern regions, and the delay in rainfalls during June-July 2019, it is expected that the second-season rice and sugarcane, which ... Read more

10 May 2019


Demand for EV sensors in 5 years will reach 30 million units, surging around 58 percent annually (Current Issue No.2992)

KResearch expects that the demand for sensors, which are essential components for the automotive manufacturing in Thailand, will steadily increase. Due to stricter environmental measures to curb carbon emissions, automakers have placed higher attention on environmental and safety systems in their ne... Read more

9 May 2019

Real Estate and Construction

Residential property stimulus measures for 2019 will boost market sentiment amid economic headwinds (Current Issue No.2990)

The package includes the Finance Ministry’s residential property stimulus measure which targets the customer group with real demand. They are first-time buyers planning to buy a house with reasonable price. Additionally, there is a measure to ease the spending burden of low-income and middle-income ... Read more

23 Apr 2019


Rubber price may increase slightly in 2Q19 but pressure persists throughout this year (Current Issue No.2983)

The attempt by the three natural rubber producing countries (Thailand, Indonesia and Malaysia) to boost rubber prices in 2Q19 by curbing rubber exports by 240,000 metric tons for four months from April-July 2019 amid the downward trend of rubber prices may prop up rubber prices somewhat. The measur... Read more

22 Apr 2019


1Q19 Thai Exports Contracted 1.6% on Slowing Global Economy, but Shipments May Revert to Growth in 2H19, Bringing 2019 Export Growth to 3.2% (Business Brief No.3797)

The value of Thai merchandise exports reached USD21.44 billion, shrinking 4.9 percent YoY in March 2019. Given this, Thailand’s outward trade overall contracted 1.6 percent YoY during 1Q19, as expected by KResearch. The major factors attributing to the contraction in March shipments, in particular t... Read more

18 Apr 2019

Real Estate and Construction

Condo market in 2019: Developers are cautious with the volume of project launches expected to slow to 61,000 – 64,000 units. (Current Issue No.2982)

Condominium developers are expected to face greater challenge in 2019 due to increasing economic uncertainty as well as specific factors affecting condominium market. For example, the demand for condo has been somewhat absorbed and there are a number of remaining unsold units covering a wide range o... Read more

12 Apr 2019


Euro 5 diesel presents an option to boost efficiency for logistic businesses (Current Issue No.2980)

In February 2019, the Energy Ministry announced measures to tackle PM 2.5 dust by upgrading the diesel standard to Euro 5, which limits the emission of sulfur compounds to under 10 parts per million (PPM) from 50 PPM under Euro 4. KResearch views that if business operators switch to premium grade di... Read more

9 Apr 2019


Songkran 2019…seven-days of festivities are expected to generate approximately THB28 billion in tourism income. (Current Issue No.2978)

The anticipation toward Songkran this year has been dampened by the air pollution in the northern part of Thailand. At any rate, since the smog in the north had continued for some time, tourists have adapted to the situation and adjusted their travel plans to other areas. Meanwhile, the drought in m... Read more

27 Mar 2019


Senior freelance community…an option for the elderly to earn income and create opportunities for businesses (Current Issue No.2974)

Thailand has been an aging society since 2005. According to the latest information in 2018, there are 11.8 million senior citizens, representing 17.7 percent of the total population. From the business perspective, the demographic shift creates an opportunity for Thai companies to rethink and adjust ... Read more

6 Mar 2019


Drought in 2019 expected to cause economic losses of around THB15.3 billion (Current Issue No.2972)

Signs of drought in 2019 are imminent as the summer has come sooner and is expected to last longer than in previous years, affecting rainfall amounts and lowering water levels in the country’s major reservoirs. KResearch holds the view that this year’s drought could persist through the month of May.... Read more

28 Feb 2019


Thai Exports and Tourism Likely be Spared from India-Pakistan Conflict (Current Issue No.2970)

The intensifying tensions between India and Pakistan over Kashmir two weeks ago has led to the airspace closure in northern Pakistan and parts of India, being the key air route between Europe and Thailand. In the past, conflicts of any magnitude between the two countries were seen to affect only are... Read more

22 Feb 2019


Thai Exports Contracted 5.65% in January due to Slowing Global Economy, Trade War and High Base of 2018 (Business Brief No.3789)

The slowing global economy, impacts of the US tariff hikes on Chinese imports, a cyclical downturn in electronic products, low global crude oil prices and the high base of 2018 all pressured Thai exports to shrink for the third consecutive month at 5.65 percent YoY in January 2019. Shipments of othe... Read more

15 Feb 2019

Real Estate and Construction

LTV Measure Affects 20% of Bangkok Residents Wanting to Buy Homes … Number of Home Ownership Transfers Projected to Contract 8.5-12.5% in 2019 (Current Issue No.2968)

The residential property market will continue to face a number of challenges in 2019. These include a fragile economic recovery in Thailand, weak purchasing power, especially of low-income earners and high levels of housing inventory. Given this, KResearch has conducted a survey on the behavior of ... Read more

15 Feb 2019


Plant factories… unveil a new chapter in Thai agriculture with its cost expected to be 20 % cheaper in 3 yearv (Current Issue No.2967)

KResearch holds the view that plant factories present a new and interesting option for farmers to use as a farming tool because of its precision in controlling farming environments by using technology and innovation. Plant factories answer the demands of the Agriculture 4.0 era by increasing agricul... Read more

13 Feb 2019


Hyper-Personalization… The technology trend of 2019 (Business Brief No.3787)

Amongst the most significant trends in technological development over 2019 will be the advent of Hyper-Personalization – the utilization of personalized Big Data for addressing the very specific needs for consumers. Compared to personalization, Hyper-Personalization goes further with respect to th... Read more

12 Feb 2019


Thai exports are losing their share in the global value chain…factors to drag Thai exports in the future (Current Issue No.2964)

Thai exports in 2018 rose 6.7 percent YoY, driven mainly by commodity prices. Nonetheless, Thai export growth was significantly lower than those of our neighboring countries. Traditionally, intermediate goods accounted for a majority of the entire Thai export structure, showing that connectivity wit... Read more

1 Feb 2019


Number of Chinese Visitors to Thailand Projected to Grow Steadily, But Close Attention Must be Paid to Development in Chinese Economy and Competition (Current Issue No.2963)

The number of Chinese tourist arrivals to Thailand bounced back quickly toward the end of 2018, thanks to a concerted effort by the private and public agencies in helping shore up confidence of Chinese tourists toward Thailand and an exemption of visa-on-arrival fee for citizens of 20 countries, inc... Read more

31 Jan 2019


Adoption of Euro 5 Emission Standards May Incur Extra Expenses for New Car (Current Issue No.2961)

Amid attempts to promote carmakers to adopt the Euro 5 emission standards for domestically-produced cars in 2021, aimed at addressing the PM2.5 dust particle problem over the long term, we at KResearch have assessed that the costs involved will force consumers to set aside extra expenses of at least... Read more

30 Jan 2019


Thailand is poised to produce over 430,000 units of EV batteries in 5 years, becoming 4th largest production base in Asia. (Current Issue No.2960)

The booming electric vehicle (EV) market in Thailand is increasingly evident in 2019 as a number of automakers have sought the Board of Investment (BOI)’s incentives to produce EVs here. KResearch forecasts that the EV market share in the next five years will increase to one-fourth, or 240,000 unit... Read more

24 Jan 2019


EU’s Removal of “Yellow Card” Warning Improves Thai Fishing Industry’s Image…2019 Seafood Exports to EU Projected to Grow 0.0-2.0% (Current Issue No.2958)

On January 8, 2019, the European Union (EU) announced to lift the so-called “Yellow Card” or warning on Thailand for our substantial progress in tackling illegal, unreported and unregulated (IUU) fishing. Although the removal helps improve the image of Thai seafood products, such exports the EU wil... Read more