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Industry Outlook Analysis

24 Sep 2020

Trading

August Exports Contracted Slower than Expected at 7.9%, but Close Attention Must be Paid to Global Economic Risks (Business Brief No.3886)

Thailand’s outward trade contracted 7.9 percent YoY in August 2020. As a result, 8M20 exports shrank 7.8 percent YoY. Excluding oil, gold and arms exports, Thai shipments, however, contracted 14.1 percent YoY in August 2020, accelerating over the 13.0 percent YoY shrinkage reported for July 2020. Au... Read more

22 Sep 2020

Trading

Stringent Controls on Myanmar’s Border May Have Short-term Impact on Border Trade, but 2020 Cross-Border Exports to Myanmar Projected to Fall below THB100 Billion due to COVID-19 (Current Issue No.3138)

Thailand is facing hurdles in transporting goods across the border to Myanmar again after a recent announcement by Myanmar to tighten its cross-border controls as part of its COVID-19 prevention and control measures. Such controls include a requirement for truck drivers from Thailand via Chiang Rai’... Read more

24 Aug 2020

Trading

Thai Shipments Contracted 11.4% in July…2020 Exports Projected to Shrink 12.0% Amid Risks to Global Economy (Business Brief No.3881)

Thailand’s outward trade was USD18,819 million, shrinking 11.4 percent YoY in July 2020. Excluding oil, gold and arms shipments, Thai exports, however, contracted 13.0 percent YoY. Gold exports reverted to growth of 37.2 percent YoY in July in line with global gold prices, while industrial product a... Read more

24 Jun 2020

Trading

Lockdown Measures Abroad Caused Thai Exports to Contract 22.5% in May Despite Skyrocketing Gold Shipments (Business Brief No.3873)

The value of Thailand’s outward trade stood at USD16,278 million, shrinking 22.5 percent YoY in May 2020 due primarily to lockdown measures abroad. As a result, Thai exports contracted 3.7 percent YoY during 5M20.... Read more

22 May 2020

Trading

Thai exports for April 2020 grew by 2.1percent, thanks to a dramatic rise in gold exports by 1,103 percent and other temporary factors (Business Brief No.3866)

The value of Thai exports for April 2020 stood at USD 18,948.2 million, with continuous expansion for the second consecutive month at a rate of 2.12 percent YoY – contrary to analysts’ earlier projection of a 4.6 percent contraction. The fact that many of Thailand’s trade partners have enforced lock... Read more

24 Apr 2020

Trading

COVID-19 Causes 2020 Thai Exports to US to shrink for the First Time in 10 Years at 9.2% (Current Issue No.3101)

Thai exports to the US contracted 2.7 percent YoY in 1Q20. Excluding products related to arms and tanks for military drills, which caused our export base to become volatile, our shipments to the US grew 15.8 percent YoY. The increase was supported by the US-China trade war, which helped bolster our ... Read more

21 Apr 2020

Trading

Thai Exports Grew 0.9% in 1Q20 bolstered by Short-Term Gold and Electronics Shipments (Business Brief No.3862)

The value of Thailand’s outward trade reverted to growth for the first time in five quarters of 0.9 percent YoY in 1Q20, boosted by favorable gold and electronics shipments. However, oil-related exports were dampened by plummeting crude oil prices. ... Read more

10 Apr 2020

Trading

COVID-19 Pandemic in Neighboring Countries to Cause 2020 Border and Cross-Border Trade to Shrink 12.8% (Current Issue No.3098)

Plummeting oil prices and measures aimed at combating the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic in some of Thailand’s neighboring countries caused our border-trade and cross-border exports to contract 8.6 percent YoY during 2M20. The spread of the COVID-10 respiratory disease in all member ASEAN states a... Read more

23 Mar 2020

Trading

Gold – Crude Oil: Major Factors affecting Thai Exports in Feb.2020 (Business Brief No.3856)

Thai Exports in February 2020 remained a hodgepodge of temporary factors, being supported by consistent growth in gold exports but inhibited by a high base effect as a result of munitions rexports and crude oil prices in the preceding year. Meanwhile, the COVID-19 outbreak continued to affect Thai e... Read more

6 Feb 2020

Trading

Thai Manufacturing Sector May Lose at Least USD1.5 Billion amid Coronavirus Crisis in China (Current Issue No.3081)

The World Health Organization, January 30, 2020, declared that the novel coronavirus (2019 n-CoV) outbreak is a public health emergency of international concern as the virus has spread internationally. In China, the 2019 n-CoV epidemic, which originated in Wuhan, Hubei province, has also spread to o... Read more

22 Jan 2020

Trading

2019 Exports Contracted 2.65% ... Strong Baht and Slowing Global Economy Represent Risks to 2020 Exports (Business Brief No.3845)

The total value of Thai exports came in at USD246,244.5 million, shrinking 2.65 percent YoY in 2019 while the total import value reached USD236,639.9 million, contracting 4.66 percent YoY. As a result, Thailand enjoyed a trade surplus for the fifth consecutive year of USD9,604.6 million.... Read more

23 Dec 2019

Trading

Global economic slump sinks Thai exports, leading to a contraction for a fourth-straight month in November 2019 (Business Brief No.3840)

Thai exports in November 2019 totaled USD19.657 billion, dropping below USD20 billion for the first time in seven months and plunging for four consecutive months by 7.4 percent YoY, which marks the worst contraction in 43 months. Consequently, Thai exports in the first 11 months (Jan-Nov) of 2019 sh... Read more

25 Nov 2019

Trading

10M19 Shipments Shrank 2.35% 2019 Export Growth Forecast Revised Downward to (-) 2.5% (Business Brief No.3834)

The value of Thai exports reached USD20,757.78 million in October 2019, shrinking 4.54 percent YoY. As a result, 10M19 shipments contracted at a faster pace than that seen during 9M19 of 2.35 percent YoY. The shrinkage in October exports was due to a number of factors, including persistent sluggishn... Read more

15 Nov 2019

Trading

Unlocking of Thai-Myanmar land transport bottleneck, border trade is set to turn around in 2020 (Current Issue No.3055)

The latest development at the Thailand-Myanmar border this year is very interesting with the opening of the second Thai-Myanmar Friendship Bridge at the Mae Sot checkpoint in Tak on October 31, 2019. The new bridge was built to ease traffic congestion at the first friendship bridge. Moreover, the au... Read more

30 Oct 2019

Trading

US GSP Cut: Thai Businesses Need to Brace for Uncertainties Ahead (Current Issue No.3047)

The US, October 25, 2019, announced the suspension of trade preferences for Thailand under the Generalized System of Preference (GSP), covering 573 items and costing approximately USD1.3 billion, effective over the next six months or April 25, 2020. Items that will no longer be eligible for GSP bene... Read more

21 Oct 2019

Trading

Slowing economy causes Thai exports (excluding gold) in 3Q19 to shrink 4.5%, exports in 4Q19 may come back into positive territory due to front-loading (Business Brief No.3827)

Thai exports in September fell from the previous month, lower than the consensus of the analysts. The lackluster performance is in line with exports of other countries in the region which were affected by the worse-than-expected global economy and the prolonged trade war between the US and China. Ou... Read more

20 Sep 2019

Trading

8M19 Exports Contracted 2.2% while Trade Surplus Continues to Drive up the Baht (Business Brief No.3821)

The slowing global economy, persistent trade war and strong Baht caused Thailand’s outward trade to shrink 2.2 percent p.a. during 8M19. The value of August exports reverted to a contraction of 4.0 percent p.a. However, our industrial exports overall to the US continued to grow, including computers,... Read more

21 Aug 2019

Trading

July Thai exports resume growth as gold shipments surge, 3Q19 exports set to rise before the US imposes tariffs on China (Business Brief No.3815)

Surging gold exports for the second consecutive month helped Thai shipments overall to resume growth for the first time in five months in July 2019. The value of July shipments came in at USD21,205 million, increasing 4.28 percent YoY, driven partly by skyrocketing gold exports for the second conse... Read more

14 Aug 2019

Trading

Hong Kong’s protests take a toll on economy…causing Thai exports to lose USD500-900 million (Current Issue No.3021)

Hong Kong’s protests have escalated to the shutdown of Hong Kong international airport, shaking the reputation of one of the Asian financial hubs. Air transportation for passenger and cargo is disrupted. KResearch views that since the volume of Thailand’s outbound shipments to Hong Kong is small; H... Read more

22 Jul 2019

Trading

1H19 Thai Exports Contracted 2.9%, but Growth Seen in 2H19 on Low Base of 2H18 (Business Brief No.3809)

Skyrocketing gold exports supported Thai shipments to shrink at a slower pace in June 2019. Thailand’s June outward trade reached USD21,409.3 million, representing a contraction for the fourth consecutive month at 2.15 percent YoY. The shrinkage, however, was slower than those reported during the pr... Read more