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Economic Analysis

13 Jun 2019

Thai Economy

2019 Mid-Year Economic Stimuli, aimed at Promoting Domestic Spending, Helped Push KR-ECI Up Slightly in May 2019

The KR-ECI increased slightly to 43.7 in May 2019 over the reading of 43.5 reported for April 2019, thanks to 2019 mid-year economic stimuli that directly and indirectly helped ease the high cost of living of Thai households somewhat. In addition, some households were less anxious about debt because... Read more

13 May 2019

Thai Economy

KR-ECI Declined in April 2019 as Many Factors Affected Living Conditions of Thai Households

The KR-ECI and 3-month Expected KR-ECI slipped to 43.5 and 45.7 in April 2019 because households were more concerned about their living conditions, including income, employment, prices of goods and services, expenditures and debt. ... Read more

8 May 2019

Thai Economy

Survey on Economic Confidence after General Election Shows that Most Thais Do Not Change their Views on Thai Economy (Current Issue No.2989)

KResearch conducted a survey on the confidence of Thai households and entrepreneurs towards the Thai economy before and after the 2019 general election on March 25 and April 3, 2019. The poll shows that Thai households and entrepreneurs surveyed have changed their views towards the Thai economy afte... Read more

7 May 2019

Thai Economy

Parents in Bangkok Metropolitan Area are expected to spend around THB28.2 billion to get their children ready for school year 2019 (Current Issue No.2986)

During the back-to-school season, consumers with school-age children normally have higher expenditures associated with their children’s education. KResearch’s survey finds that over 54.2 percent of parents are concerned about the amount of their cash flow to spend during the 2019 semester; however, ... Read more

7 May 2019

International Economy

US-China trade war escalates…the US threat to hike tariffs on Chinese goods to 25 percent disrupts Thai trade outlook again (Current Issue No.2988)

The trade talks between the US and China last week did not produce a satisfactory outcome either side. Moreover, the US President Donald Trump announced plans to further raise tariffs on USD200 billion of Chinese goods from 10 to 25 percent starting Friday, May 10. The latest move puts greater press... Read more

29 Apr 2019

International Economy

Expected slowing US economy amid weaker-than-target inflation may signal a halt in Fed interest rate increase (Business Brief No.3799)

KResearch expects the Federal Reserve to maintain the policy rate at 2.25-2.50 percent during the Federal Open Market Committee meeting on April 30-May 1, 2019. The Fed’s hint at easing monetary policy will sustain the US economic growth in the remainder of this year. During 2Q19 and 3Q19, the US e... Read more

17 Apr 2019

International Economy

Chinese economy is likely to enjoy the highest growth at 6.4% YoY in 1Q19 before decelerating in the remainder of this year (Business Brief No.3796)

Chinese economy in 1Q19 expanded 6.4 percent YoY compared to 6.6 percent growth in 2018, while exports increased only 1.0 percent YoY versus 9.9 percent in 2018. Nonetheless, the government’s stimulus policy has begun to bear fruit to support the growth momentum of the Chinese economy. The Chinese... Read more

12 Apr 2019

Thai Economy

Increased spending before the election boosts income of trading households KR-ECI up slightly in March 2019

KResearch views that issues that must be monitored closely in 2019. These include drought, which has arrived early and is expected to last longer than the previous year, because it will affect farm income and the cost of living of households resulting from higher raw food prices. Another issue is th... Read more

3 Apr 2019

Thai Economy

Songkran 2019: Spending in BKK to reach THB25 billion Hot weather affects spending lifestyle of each generation (Current Issue No.2976)

KResearch projects that during the Songkran Festival in 2019, Bangkokians will spend THB25 billion, up 3.6 percent from the previous year. Of the total, THB9.6 billion will be spent on party supplies (food and beverages), THB6.65 billion on accommodation/travel, THB4.6 billion on shopping, THB2.05 b... Read more

15 Mar 2019

International Economy

Slowing US economic indicators prompt the Fed to hint at only one rate hike in 2019 (Business Brief No.3792)

KResearch expects the US Federal Reserve (Fed) to keep the policy rates unchanged at 2.25-2.50 percent during the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on March 19-20, 2019. High external risk, slowing US economic activities and lower US inflation will prompt the Fed to hint at only one rate ... Read more

14 Mar 2019

Thai Economy

February KR-ECI Edged Up because Households Were Less Worried about Spending, Reflecting Gradual Recovery in Private Consumption

KResearch views that issues that must be monitored closely in 2019. These include drought, which has arrived early and is expected to last longer than the previous year, because it will affect farm income and the cost of living of households resulting from higher raw food prices. Another issue is th... Read more

12 Mar 2019

International Economy

Fate of Brexit: Will the UK Find Solutions before the Deadline? (Current Issue No.2973)

After British Prime Minister Theresa May sustained a parliamentary defeat as MPs rejected her Brexit plan on January 15, 2019, the UK parliament is scheduled to vote on her revised withdrawal agreement again on March 12, 2019, being the second meaningful vote on whether to leave the EU without a dea... Read more

5 Mar 2019

International Economy

All eyes on Fed meeting, imminent US/China trade deal, and domestic factors which may impact the Baht in the short (Current Issue No.2971)

The Thai Baht weakened from late February to early March, 2019 after hitting a five-year record high of THB31.07 per Dollar. The Baht traded within a range of THB31.80-THB31.85 per Dollar (as of March 5, 2019) amid varied pressures, namely domestic factors and US Dollar short-covering from many mark... Read more

18 Feb 2019

Thai Economy

Thailand Reported 3.7% GDP Growth in 4Q18 due to Easing External Risks 2019 Economic Growth Projected at 4.0% (Business Brief No.3788)

The Thai economy grew 3.7 percent YoY in 4Q18, increasing over that reported for 3Q18, thanks to easing external risks and continuing growth seen in domestic spending. The trade war continued to cause 4Q18 exports to expand at a slower pace from 3Q18. Many Asian economies were also affected by the t... Read more

13 Feb 2019

International Economy

EPA, Effective February 1, 2019, to Bolster Thai Eco/Hybrid and Parts Exports Ahead (Current Issue No.2966)

From February 1, 2019 onward, Japan’s car and auto-parts exports to the EU will enjoy gradual cuts in import tariffs under the EU-Japan Economic Partnership Agreement (EPA). KResearch views that since the EU will likely have to import more vehicles and auto-parts from Japan, Japanese carmakers may n... Read more

12 Feb 2019

Thai Economy

Economic Costs of Bangkok’s Dust Pollution Revised Upward to THB14.5 Billion (Current Issue No.2965)

The level of ultrafine dust particles exceeding safety standards in Greater Bangkok is expected to prolong until March 2019. Given this, KResearch has revised our forecast of its effect on the Thai economy in terms of opportunity costs incurred from health and tourism related issues, as well as othe... Read more

28 Jan 2019

International Economy

FED is likely to keep interest rates unchanged during its first meeting in 2019... while continuing a cautionary monetary policy in line with future economic directions. (Business Brief No.3773)

KResearch expects the Federal Reserve to keep the policy rate unchanged at 2.25-2.50 percent during its first policymaking meeting of the year from January 29-30, 2019. Although the US economy has shown signs of solid growth, risks associated with global economic uncertainty may prompt the US centra... Read more

22 Jan 2019

International Economy

China’s 2018 Economy Growth Hit 28-Year Low, with Heightened Risk Seen in 2019 (Business Brief No.3782)

China’s economy grew 6.6 percent in 2018, declining substantially from the 6.8 percent pace recorded in 2017. Its economy has weakened steadily, especially during 4Q18 to 6.4 percent, representing the lowest growth in 28 years. The sharp decline in 4Q18 economic performance was attributable chiefly ... Read more

16 Jan 2019

International Economy

Uncertainty persists after the UK parliament’s rejection of Theresa May’s Brexit Plan (Current Issue No.2956)

The UK parliament voted to reject the Brexit deal presented by Prime Minister Theresa May on January 14, 2019 with 432 rejecting votes and only 202 approving votes. The result marks the heaviest parliamentary defeat of a British prime minister in history. The vote results show that members of the U... Read more

16 Jan 2019

International Economy

Japan overtakes Thailand to take 3rd position in CLMV-EPI Index, with focus on service investment in CLM (CLMV-EPI)

Thailand experienced the first time of its KR CLMV Economic Presence (CLMV-EPI) Index not being among the top three ranking since the fourth quarter of 2017, replaced by Japan at the third position as affirmed by its increasing role as a large investor in CLMV. Change in Japan’s direct investment in... Read more

15 Jan 2019

Thai Economy

Economic Costs of Bangkok Air Pollution Preliminarily Estimated to be at Least THB2.6 Billion (Current Issue No.2955)

Greater Bangkok was last hit by the high level of hazardous dust particles at the end of 2017 through to the beginning of 2018. Air pollution blanketed capital again in January 2019, with the prospect of prolonged unhealthy air quality levels . This problem and the impacts of global warming or clima... Read more

11 Jan 2019

Thai Economy

KR-ECI Increased for 3 Straight Months in December 2018 Thai Households Enjoyed more Income amid Ebbing Cost of Living

• The KR-ECI conducted nationwide rose to 46.0 percent in December 2018 because some Thai households got extra income while the cost of living was declining in line with raw food prices and energy costs. • The 3-month Expected KR-ECI also increased to 47.6 in December because households spent les... Read more

20 Dec 2018

Thai Economy

2019 inflation will likely slow to 0.8% Shaped by weather conditions, energy and utility prices (Business Brief No.3778)

KResearch maintains our estimate of Headline Inflation in 2018 at 1.1 percent, compared to the 0.7-percent pace of 2017, as a result of rising energy prices and housing rents amid contracting prices of fresh food following a large quantity of supplies in the market.... Read more

14 Dec 2018

International Economy

FOMC Meeting, December 18-19, 2018: Policy Rate Hike likely while Fed’s 2019 Monetary Policy Stand Hinges on Economic Conditions (Business Brief No.3776)

We at KResearch view that the US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will likely raise its policy rate by another 0.25 percent to 2.25-2.50 percent over the current 2.00-2.25 percent at its final meeting of 2018 as it marches toward a more normal policy stance, given that the US economy has outperf... Read more

12 Dec 2018

Thai Economy

KR-ECI Up in November due to Ebbing Energy Prices

The KR-ECI and 3-month Expected KR-ECI improved in November due to ebbing energy prices and new government measures, aimed at assisting low-income earners and farmers. The KR-ECI rose to 45.7 in November over 45.3 reported for October and the 3-month Expected KR-ECI (December 2018-February 2019) cam... Read more

3 Dec 2018

International Economy

US-China trade truce to suspend imposing tariffs for 90 days eases short-term tension but impact on Thailand lingers (Current Issue No.2943)

On the sidelines of the G20 meetings in Buenos Aires, Argentina on December 1, 2018, US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping struck a temporary truce, agreeing not to increase punitive tariffs for 90 days after the G20 meetings to pave the way for negotiations to end the trade wa... Read more

19 Nov 2018

International Economy

Trade war may trigger more investment outflows from China but its benefits on Thailand will be limited to certain industries (Current Issue No.2939)

Uncertainties associated with the trade war between Washington and Beijing may prompt investors to manage their business risks by diversifying their investments from China to countries not directly affected by the trade battle. Nonetheless, direct benefits for Thailand will be limited because Thaila... Read more

19 Nov 2018

Thai Economy

3Q18 GDP growth: Lower-than-expected and lowest in 2018 due to external economic factors (Business Brief No.3772)

The Thai economy in the third quarter of 2018 expanded 3.3 percent YoY, which is the lowest recorded growth rate of this year and also lower than the market expectation of 4.1-percent growth due mainly to external economic factors. Meanwhile, there were positive signals in domestic consumption, incl... Read more

15 Nov 2018

Thai Economy

Higher Growth Potential of Public Construction in 2019, Buoyed by Mega Projects (Current Issue No.2937)

A number of infrastructure projects have exhibited satisfactory progress after the government’s announcement of an action plan to expedite large infrastructure investments in 2016-2018 with an important impetus being the Eastern Economic Corridor (EEC) program with THB trillions of investment. Compl... Read more

14 Nov 2018

Thai Economy

3-month Expected KR-ECI Improves Households Are Optimistic toward Future Income

​The 3-month Expected KR-ECI edged up slightly to 46.9 in October over 46.5 reported for September. This is because households were more optimistic toward income and employment over the next three months (November 2018 - January 2019) partly as a result of the fact that non-farm households that wi... Read more

7 Nov 2018

International Economy

US Midterm Election Results ... sending only weak economic stimulation amid ongoing trade war (Current Issue No.2935)

At present, the fast-paced business world is fuelled largely by digital disruption. The tourism and hospitality business is one of the industries that has experienced a rapid evolution in the past decade, with Online Travel Agencies (OTAs) emerging to become a force to be reckoned with. The OT... Read more

31 Oct 2018

International Economy

FOMC Meeting, September 7-8: Fed Continues to Signal More Rate Increases…Watch Out for Factors Affecting Rate Hike Timing in 2019 (Business Brief No.3770)

We at KResearch expect that the FOMC will resolve to keep its policy rate intact at 2.00-2.25 percent at the upcoming meeting slated for September 7-8, 2018 before raising the Fed Funds rate by another 0.25 percent at the final meeting of this year. Factors supporting the path of Fed’s monetary poli... Read more

22 Oct 2018

Thai Economy

Thai exports in September 2018 contract 5.2% ... due to factors including bigger impact from the escalated trade war (Business Brief No.3768)

Thai export growth in September 2018 recorded the first drop in 19 months due partly to a sharp decline in gold exports as a result of a high base effect last year and volatility of the gold market. After an exclusion of gold export value, which contracted 78.7 percent YoY, Thai exports shrank sligh... Read more

19 Oct 2018

International Economy

Chinese Economy Slowed in 3Q18 Despite Accelerated Exports and Easing Monetary Policy…Watch Out for Challenges that May Further Hurt Growth in 2019 (Business Brief No.3767)

China’s economic growth slipped to 6.5 percent YoY in 3Q18, representing a record low since 2009. The decelerated growth was attributable to steady drop in its industrial production amid the country’s trade dispute, which is expected to escalate ahead, plus persistent sluggishness seen in household ... Read more

10 Oct 2018

International Economy

Fed rate, oil prices and regional currencies are 3 factors weakening Thai Baht late this year (Current Issue No.2931)

It is apparent that the Thai currency and the Thai government bond yields - especially the long-term bond yields - have begun to ostensibly “swing” in the last quarter of the year. The Thai Baht weakened to touch THB33.10 against the greenback on October 9 (when the net sales of equities and bonds b... Read more

5 Oct 2018

Thai Economy

2019 Inflation Projected to Increase by 0.7-1.1% Amid Surging Global Crude Oil Prices, Though the Figure Will Depend on Government Policy of Supervising Energy (Current Issue No.2930)

2019 Inflation Projected to Increase by 0.7-1.1% Amid Surging Global Crude Oil Prices, Though the Figure Will Depend on Government Policy of Supervising Energy (Current Issue No.2930)... Read more

21 Sep 2018

Thai Economy

2018 Kin Jae festival is expected to generate THB4.65 billion in BKK with healthy diet being the main reason to attract customers (Current Issue No.2927)

Kin Jae (vegetarian) is one of the main festivals that food and beverages suppliers and distributors, including fine restaurants, street food vendors, convenience stores and online operators, have paid attention as this annual event is one of the best periods to boost their sales and expand their cu... Read more

21 Sep 2018

International Economy

Fed Meeting, Sep 25-26 ... Expected Rate Increase of 0.25% ... Intensified Trade Conflicts to be Watched (Business Brief No.3760)

KResearch expects the Federal Reserve (Fed) will raise the policy interest rate by 0.25 percent from 1.75-2.00 percent to 2.00-2.25 percent in its meeting slated for September 25-26, 2018. The Fed will also likely announce an increase in its balance sheet normalization process to the maximu... Read more

20 Aug 2018

Thai Economy

1H18 Economy Recorded Surprising Growth, Aided by Domestic Spending … 2018 GDP Projected to Expand at Least 4.5% (Business Brief No.3756)

The Thai economy grew at an average of 4.8 percent p.a. during 1H18, supported by steady GDP growth of 4.6 percent p.a. in 2Q18. Domestic spending began to support the Thai economy in addition to exports and tourism amid rising agricultural supplies.... Read more

16 Aug 2018

International Economy

Turkish Currency Crisis…Limited Impacts on Thai Financial Sector (Current Issue No. 2924)

Financial markets worldwide are keeping close watch on possible risks and impacts that may be caused by the Turkish Lira crisis. Although the Lira has picked up somewhat (after hitting a historical low at 7.2362/USD on August 13), it will likely face many sell-offs ahead amid limited tools/resource... Read more

15 Aug 2018

International Economy

Closely watch Turkish currency crisis … Lira meltdown can put Eurozone economies at risk (Current Issue No. 2923)

In 2018, the Turkish economy is facing pressures from all sides amid risks threatening its economic stability such as the Federal Reserve interest rate hike, which accelerates fund outflows and continuously and quickly increases borrowing costs. An increasing oil price and weaker Turkish lira have c... Read more

10 Aug 2018

Thai Economy

KR-ECI in July edges up for the first time in 6 months in anticipation of better income and job opportunities

KR-ECI in July 2018 edged up for the first time in 6 months from 44.7 in June to 45.1 due to household anticipation of better income and employment, in addition to their easing concerns about prices of products and services in the country. The 3-month Expected KR-ECI slip... Read more

26 Jul 2018

International Economy

FED is likely to maintain the interest rate at 1.75-2.00% at its meeting on July 31-August 1, 18...close attention to trade dispute (Business Brief No.3754)

KResearch expects the Federal Reserve (Fed) to hold the policy rates steady at 1.75-2.00 percent during the fifth round of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting this year. The risk factor - that may disrupt the path of the US economic recovery in the remainder of this year - is still the ... Read more

26 Jul 2018

International Economy

Trade War Likely to be Prolonged in 2019 … Possibly Affecting Thai Exports at 0.5%-0.6% of GDP (Current Issue No. 2922)

In 2018, the trade war provoked by the US may not produce significant repercussions on Thailand, given that the measures to impose new tariffs on solar panels, large washing machines, iron and aluminum since the beginning of the year has not involved considerable value. Despite, the first round of n... Read more

19 Jul 2018

International Economy

A Record-Low Yuan May Pressure Other Asian Currencies (Current Issue No. 2920)

From the beginning of 2018 to July 19, the Yuan weakened by more than 3.5 percent against the US Dollar, representing a new record low of CNY6.73/USD. Factors contributing to a rapid softening of the Yuan over the past few months include heightened risks stemming from the US-China trade war, which h... Read more

17 Jul 2018

International Economy

China achieved 6.7% economic growth in 2Q18…with challenge of long-term stability given prolonged trade disputes (Business Brief No.3751)

While China’s government policies have constrained growth in some economic sectors, its GDP report for 2Q18 indicated ongoing growth overall, reaching 6.7 percent YoY compared to the 6.8-percent pace reported for 1Q18. Considering growth components, the factors pressuring economic growth include the... Read more

6 Jul 2018

Thai Economy

Thailand’s External Stability Remains Solid to Brace for Volatility of Capital Outflows … Eyeing Heightened Volatility from Trade War (Current Issue No. 2918)

Looking ahead, close attention must be paid to the ongoing trade war. If it persists beyond 2018, our real economic sector could be undermined over the next 2-4 years. Moreover, due to the cyclical upturn in interest rates, concerns may shift toward internal stability, in particular when Thailand is... Read more

29 Jun 2018

Thai Economy

Thai Household Debt Rose 5.2% YoY in 1Q18 In line with increasing retail lending of commercial banks (Business Brief No.3750)

According to Bank of Thailand data on household borrowing in 1Q18, the ratio of household debt to GDP dropped from 78.0 percent in 4Q17 to 77.6 percent (while the seasonally adjusted figure stood at 77.7 percent). However, the outstanding household debt in 1Q18 stepped up to THB12.17 billion, or 5.2... Read more

12 Jun 2018

Thai Economy

KR-ECI Declined in May due to Rising Cost of Living Driven by Energy Prices But Income and Employment Improved

The KR-ECI and 3-month Expected KR-ECI slipped to 44.9 and 46.2 for May chiefly because of substantial increases in the domestic prices of goods and services, in particular energy. Household income and employment, however, improved, due in part to continuing recovery in the Thai economy and higher f... Read more

11 Jun 2018

International Economy

Fed is expected to raise the policy rate by 0.25% during the meeting on June 12-13 supported by continuing expansion of the US economy (Business Brief No.3746)

KResearch expects the Federal Reserve (Fed) to raise its policy rate by 0.25 percentage points from 1.50-1.75 percent to 1.75-2.00 percent during the fourth round of the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting this year on June 12-13, 2018. A solid expansion of the US economy and the f... Read more

4 Jun 2018

International Economy

New context of Malaysian economy after“2018 poll: Closely watch major shift in economic policy amid fragile economic fundamentals (Current Issue No. 2913)

The economic policies recently announced by newly-elected Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad mark a major shift from those under the ousted Barisan Nasional government, especially the country’s policies on large-scale infrastructure investments. On May 28, 2018, Prime Minister Mahathir announ... Read more

1 Jun 2018

Thai Economy

Inflation accelerated to 1.49% in May given high energy prices 2H18 pace may ease due to last year’s high base of comparison (Business Brief No.3745)

Head line inflation in May 2018 accelerated to 1.49 percent, mainly on the back of domestic energy prices that had risen in line with the uptrend of global crude oil prices to nearly USD80/barrel. If global crude oil prices are within the range of USD70-80/barrel over the remainder of 2018, Thailand... Read more

25 May 2018

International Economy

China begins cutting tariffs to ease trade tensions with the US, but uncertainty lingers (Current Issue No. 2911)

Finally, China and the US have reached a compromise to ease trade tensions. Recently, Beijing announced that it will cut tariffs on imported passenger cars from 25 to 15 percent and auto parts from 10 to 6 percent, effective July 1, 2018. Looking forward, China is set to announce a string of measure... Read more

22 May 2018

Thai Economy

April Exports Post 14th Month of High Growth Full-Year Growth Expected at 8% (Business Brief No.3743)

Thailand’s global trade value in April 2018 dropped into negative territory, with a trade deficit of USD1.283 billion – the highest in 43 months. This was due to an import expansion of 20.4 percent YoY, partly caused by surging oil prices in world markets and accelerated imports of products... Read more

21 May 2018

Thai Economy

1Q18 GDP is likely to register the highest rate of 2018 Growth in the remainder of the year is expected to top 4.0 %

The Thai economy in 1Q18 rose to a record 5-year high at 4.8 percent YoY, driven by booming export and tourism sectors. At the same time, housing spending began to show positive signs, picking up momentum from the previous quarter. Additionally, agricultural production has dramatically increased, be... Read more

15 May 2018

Thai Economy

Digital Asset Law Aimed at Protecting Retail Investors and Promoting Financial Stability (Business Brief No.3741)

The new digital asset law is intended to supervise retail investors and promote roles, as well as responsibilities of related businesses. All sections under the law require companies selling digital token or issuing initial coin offering (ICO) to comply with the SEC rules and regulations, in... Read more

8 May 2018

Thai Economy

Under economic pressure, parents in Bangkok are expected to spend THB27.5 billion during 2018 back-to-school season(Current Issue No. 2910)

KResearch expects that parents in Greater Bangkok will spend around THB27.5 billion during the 2018 school year, up 1.9 percent YoY, showing a decrease in spending growth because the main spending items such as tuition remain unchanged. Additionally, most parents are spending cautiously on education... Read more

4 May 2018

Thai Economy

3-Month Expected KR-ECI Improves on Declining Expenses

The 3-month Expected KR-ECI increased to 46.9 in April 2018 because households expected that their expenditures (excluding debt) would decline over the next three months after the Songkran spending spree and making tuition fee payments for their children.... Read more

4 May 2018

Thai Economy

Number of Middle Eastern Tourist Arrivals to Thailand May Contract in 2018 due to Economic and Competition Factors (Current Issue No. 2909)

KResearch thus expects that the number of Middle Eastern holidaymakers to Thailand will continue to shrink during the remainder of 2018. As a result, the number of Middle Eastern tourist arrivals will reach perhaps 7.58-7.79 million in 2018, shrinking 4.2-1.4 percent, against the 5.7 percent growth ... Read more

27 Apr 2018

International Economy

Fed Policy Rate Expected to Remain at 1.50-.175 in May Meeting…Continued Rise in US Bond Yield to be Monitored (Business Brief No.3739)

KResearch expects the Federal Reserve (Fed) will resolve to maintain its policy interest rate at 1.50-1.75 percent in its third meeting of this year, in awaiting to assess further developments of the US economy and risks arising from trade disputes. Given the US attempts to minimize their trade defi... Read more

24 Apr 2018

Thai Economy

2018 Exports Likely Grow 7% after 1Q18 Shipments hit a 7-year high of 11.3% (Business Brief No.3737)

Thailand’s merchandise exports reached USD22.363 billion for March 2018, representing a fresh record high. As a result, our 1Q18 shipments hit a 7-year high of 11.3 percent YoY. Despite a high 2017 base, the value of March exports was driven by steady economic growth seen in our trade partners, ... Read more

19 Apr 2018

International Economy

China’s economy may slow after robust growth in 1Q18 (Business Brief No.3736)

In KResearch’s view, China’s economy may slow over the remainder of 2018, along with exports that will likely weaken as well, amid full-year growth that is expected to reach 6.6 percent YoY. Because accelerated shipments were already transacted before the effectiveness of new tariff rates per Sectio... Read more

11 Apr 2018

Thai Economy

March KR-ECI Down on Higher Household Expenses

KR Household Economic Condition Index (KR-ECI) slipped to 45.6 in March, due partly to concern toward global trade that has become ever more complex and could affect the Thai economy in any way, while there has been no new stimulus in the country. In addition, households incurred extra expenses (exc... Read more

11 Apr 2018

Thai Economy

Emerging interest in culture and history boosts domestic tourism in 1H18, while tourist receipts are set to reach THB515 billion. (Current Issue No. 2908)

In the second half of 2018, KResearch views that domestic tourism will continue to expand, thanks to the conducive domestic environment and the government’s project to promote the kingdom’s secondary destinations in 55 cities. In addition, hospitality operators including those engaging i... Read more

5 Apr 2018

Thai Economy

Songkran Festival 2018: Spending in Bangkok to Reach THB24.14 Billion (Current Issue No. 2907)

It is expected that spending by Bangkok residents during the Songkran Festival will improve in 2018, thanks to longer holidays and a better atmosphere to travel than the previous year. A poll conducted by KResearch shows that 53.0 percent of Bangkok city dwellers intent to engage in various activi... Read more

23 Mar 2018

International Economy

Little impact expected on China from US trade measures but watchful for Thailand (Current Issue No. 2906)

US President Donald Trump has signed an executive memorandum to slap tariffs worth USD60 billion on Chinese exports, reasoning that China has infringed on US intellectual property per Section 301 Anchorof the 1974 Trade Act. Although this round of trade measures is the most serious so far against f... Read more

16 Mar 2018

International Economy

FOMC Meeting, March 20-21: Another 0.25% Rate Hike Likely, Watch Out for First Signal from New Fed Chair Powell (Business Brief No.3731)

We at KResearch expect that the US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will increase its key policy rate by another 0.25 percent to 1.50-1.75 percent at the second meeting of 2018 slated for March 20-21, given that the US economy has grown beyond its potential. Looking ahead, there is a likelihood ... Read more

14 Mar 2018

International Economy

Thailand must brace for trade disputes between the US, EU and China, etc. (Current Issue No. 2905)

The US is pressing ahead with trade measures against trade partners globally. In addition to their new ‘safeguard tariffs’ on imported solar panels and large washing machines imposed early in 2018, and more recently on imported steel and aluminum, the US is now preparing to implement protectionist m... Read more

12 Mar 2018

Thai Economy

Households are Cautious about Spending in 1Q18

​ According to a survey on household economic conditions for February, views of Thai households across the country toward economic conditions and the cost of living over the next three months remained unchanged. This is reflected in the 3-month Expected KR-ECI that was static at 47.1 in F... Read more

6 Mar 2018

International Economy

China’s 2018 Economic Targets Reflect Slower Economic Growth, while Monetary and Fiscal Policies are Still Being Used to Sustain Economic Growth Ahead (Business Brief No.3730)

All eyes were on the National People’s Congress, March 5, 2018, because the ruling Communist Party proposed constitutional a... Read more

2 Mar 2018

International Economy

Planned New US Tariffs on Metal Imports Triggering More Intense Trade Protectionism (Current Issue No. 2903)

Throughout 2018, the US administration’s continual pursuit of protectionist trade measures has tended to increase volatility in global trade. Most recently, President Donald Trump announced that new “safeguard” tariffs would be imposed on steel and aluminum imports at 25 percent and 10 percent, resp... Read more

19 Feb 2018

Thai Economy

Thai economy continues to grow in 2018 Growth of 4.0% is expected (Business Brief No.3727)

The Thai economy in 4Q17 was buoyed by high growth in exports and tourism, while household consumption started to improve compared to... Read more

9 Feb 2018

Thai Economy

Official launch of EEC: Key to Thailand’s Economic Development (Current Issue No. 2899 Full Ed.)

The National Legislative Assembly (NLA) has approved the Eastern Economic Corridor (EEC) bill which is expected to boost investor confidence in large-scale, long-term investments by providing private investors additional incentives, namely non-tax privileges and a speedier process for licensing, in ... Read more

9 Feb 2018

Thai Economy

2018 Chinese New Year: Bangkok Populace to Spend THB13 Billion, Up 4.3% (Current Issue No. 2898 Full Ed.)

A poll conducted by KResearch on spending by Bangkok residents of Chinese descent during the 2018 Chinese New Year shows that their purchasing power, in particular that among middle-to-high income earners has begun to improve, thanks to the recovering Thai economy. However, the current spending slug... Read more

26 Jan 2018

International Economy

Fed Meeting Expected to Maintain Rate Leaving Room for Increasing Rate Later (Business Brief No.3725)

KResearch expects the US Federal Reserve (Fed) to maintain their policy rate at 1.25-1.50 percent during their first round of meeting o... Read more

22 Jan 2018

Thai Economy

Thai Household Debt May Fall to 77-78% of GDP in 2018 (Current Issue No. 2896)

In 3Q17, Thailand's household debt fell from 78.4 percent of GDP – as recorded in 2Q17 – to 78.3 percent of GDP, which could be the res... Read more

18 Jan 2018

Thai Economy

Economy Likely Unfazed by THB5-22 Daily Minimum Wage Hikes Nationwide (Business Brief No.3722 Full Ed.)

The National Wage Committee recently agreed to raise the daily minimum wage to THB315.97, on average, or a range of THB308-330 across the... Read more

18 Jan 2018

Thai Economy

Economy Likely Unfazed by THB5-22 Daily Minimum Wage Hikes Nationwide (Business Brief No.3722)

The National Wage Committee recently agreed to raise the daily minimum wage to THB315.97, on average, or a range of THB308-330 across the country, effective April 1, 2018. The new rates vary by province and are split into seven rates, versus the four rates seen in recent years, because a set of new ... Read more

26 Dec 2017

International Economy

The Philippines: Rising Market of ASEAN (Current Issue No. 2887 Full Ed.)

Thai exports to ASEAN-5 (Malaysia, Singapore, Indonesia, the Philippines and Brunei) account for 59.3 percent of our total exports to the entire AS... Read more

19 Dec 2017

International Economy

Chinese Economy Continues Momentum to Yearend Growth next year inches toward balance, Focus on Reforms (Business Brief No.3719)

China's latest economic indicators show that the Chinese economy has maintained momentum. Although China’s domestic eco... Read more

19 Dec 2017

International Economy

Chinese Economy Continues Momentum to Yearend Growth next year inches toward balance, Focus on Reforms (Business Brief No.3719)

China’s latest economic indicators show that the Chinese economy has maintained momentum. Although China’s domestic economic activity shows signs of a mild slowdown, their external trade remained solid. China’s economy continues to expand, but industrial manufacturing and investment have cooled, und... Read more

15 Dec 2017

Thai Economy

MPC Meeting, December 20: Policy Rate Likely on Hold at 1.50&, Economy Gaining Traction (Business Brief No.3718)

We at KResearch are of the view that the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will likely maintain its key policy rate at 1.50 percent during th... Read more

12 Dec 2017

Thai Economy

BKK populace to spend THB29.6 bln on New Year Retailers need to go the extra mile (Current Issue No. 2884 Full Ed.)

KResearch expects the Bangkok populace to spend around THB29.6 billion during the 2018 New Year holiday celebrations, up 4.0 percent o... Read more

1 Dec 2017

Thai Economy

2018 Inflation May Rise to 1.1% In Line with Energy Prices and Labor Costs (Business Brief No.3716 Full Ed.)

Accelerating inflation in 4Q17 following rising energy prices and excise tax restructuring has resulted in the average 11-m... Read more

20 Nov 2017

Thai Economy

GDP Growth of 4.3% in 3Q17 Over 4.0% Growth expected for 2H17 (Business Brief No.3713)

The Thai economy rose 4.3 percent YoY in 3Q17, bettering the consensus survey that estimated 3.8 percent YoY. While external sectors were... Read more

17 Nov 2017

International Economy

Chinese economy experiences slowdown but remains sturdy, paving the way for the government to step up its implementation of reforms (Business Brief No.3712 Full Ed.)

The latest set of economic indicators unanimously point to a Chinese slowdown, whether in terms of production, investment, or consumption. Indeed,... Read more

7 Nov 2017

Thai Economy

“Shop Chuay Chart” To Stimulate Yearend Consumer Spending (Current Issue No. 2878 Full Ed.)

The Thai economy has signaled growth in 2017, with satisfactory performance seen in exports and tourism that has caused many institutions to revise... Read more

30 Oct 2017

International Economy

Fed Meeting, Oct 31-Nov 1 ... May Maintain Rate – New Fed Chairman & Tax Reform Big Issues (Business Brief No.3710)

KResearch holds the view that the FOMC will resolve during their meeting slated for October 31-November 1, 2017, to maintain their key policy rate... Read more

25 Oct 2017

International Economy

Eyeing Japanese Economic Policies After Abe’s New Mandate (Current Issue No. 2876 Full Ed.)

According to unofficial results, Japan's Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), led by Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, secured a commanding majority... Read more

20 Oct 2017

International Economy

Continued Growth of Chinese Economy Future Reforms to be Watched (Business Brief No.3708 Full Ed.)

China's latest economic indicators have suggested satisfactory growth during 3Q17, notably with 6.8-percent growth YoY in GDP, though this has slow... Read more

3 Oct 2017

Thai Economy

Urban lifestyle Bolsters Jae-Online THB4.5 billion expected during Kin Jae Festival in 2017 (Current Issue No. 2873 Full Ed.)

KResearch projects that Bangkok residents will spend over THB4.5 billion on Jae food and beverages (F;B) during the Kin Jae Festival, which... Read more

2 Oct 2017

Thai Economy

2017 Inflation at 0.8%, Bolstered by Soaring 4Q17 Inflation (Business Brief No.3706 Full Ed.)

Headline inflation climbed to 0.86 percent YoY in September, versus the 0.56 percent pace reported for 8M17. That figure represents t... Read more

29 Sep 2017

Thai Economy

Thai Household Debt, 2Q17: Slips to 78.4 % of GDP Reflecting Some Wariness (Business Brief No.3705)

Based on the latest data released by the Bank of Thailand, Thai household debt is continuing to demonstrate a decelerating trend for the si... Read more

22 Sep 2017

International Economy

Fed Meeting, Sep 19-20: Smaller Balance Sheet Likely With Unchanged Policy Rate at 1.00-1.25% (Business Brief No.3700)

September 19-20, at their 6th meeting of 2017, KResearch expects the US Federal Reserve may signal the start of their balance sheet reductions by ... Read more

21 Sep 2017

International Economy

Changing Cambodian Market Pressuring Exports Stiff Competition from China and Vietnam (Current Issue No. 2866 Full Ed.)

Thai exports to Cambodia have risen over the past decade (2008-2016), recording an average growth of 12.6 percent YoY, excluding exports of... Read more

21 Sep 2017

Thai Economy

Global Recovery and Electronics Up-cycle Buoy Thai Exports Full-year Growth Expected at close to 7% (Business Brief No.3702 Full Ed.)

► - Thai exports were valued at USD21.224 billion for August, growing 13.2 percent YoY versus a market expectation of 4.9 percent gr... Read more

21 Sep 2017

International Economy

Changing Cambodian Market Pressuring Our Exports Stiff Competition from China and Vietnam (Current Issue No.2866)

Thai exports to Cambodia have risen over the past decade (2008-2016), recording an average growth of 12.6 percent YoY, excluding exports of refined petroleum products and gold because those prices are volatile in nature. However, it is noteworthy that the growth rate over the past five years (2012-2... Read more

18 Sep 2017

International Economy

Somber real domestic data reins in optimism from buoyant trade numbers, reinforcing view that policymakers will likely hold off on key reforms. (Business Brief No.3701)

Key real economy indicators released September 14th indicated a slowdown on both the supply and demand sides. Industrial... Read more

18 Sep 2017

International Economy

Somber real domestic data reins in optimism from buoyant trade numbers, reinforcing view that policymakers will likely hold off on key reforms. (Business Brief No.3701)

Key real economy indicators released September 14th indicated a slowdown on both the supply and demand sides. Industrial output for August expanded 6.0% YoY, down considerably from 6.4% during July, while fixed-asset investment grew 7.8% YTD YoY, slumping substantially from 8.3% during January-July.... Read more

15 Sep 2017

International Economy

EU-Japan FTA may affect only 0.3 percent of Thai exports to Japan (Current Issue No. 2865 Full Ed.)

A major implication of the EU-Japan Economic Partnership Agreement, the ‘EU-Japan FTA', is that it will further liberalize the ... Read more