15 Jul 2021
Thai Economy
We, at KResearch, have decided to revise downward our 2021 growth forecast for the Thai economy to 1.0 percent, from a prior estimate of 1.8 percent, because the impact of COVID-19 on the economy has become more severe than previously assessed. Due to limitations of the Thai public health system, mo... Read more
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9 Jul 2021
“Fragile employment has affected the spending behavior of households Government’s new relief measures along with procurement and rollout of quality vaccines are urgently needed... Read more
29 Jun 2021
The government has announced partial lockdown measures, including the prohibition of construction work, primarily at large construction projects for at least 30 days in the maximum and strict controlled zones (dark red) of six provinces, namely Bangkok, Nakhon Pathom, Nonthaburi, Pathum Thani, Samut... Read more
10 Jun 2021
KASIKORN RESEARCH CENTER (KResearch) has kept its Thai economic projection for 2021 unchanged at 1.8 percent. The research house views that the Thai economy remains mired in uncertainty due to the persistence of COVID-19 both domestically and abroad, as well as vaccination progress. In the next 1-2 ... Read more
The relaxation of COVID-19 containment measures around mid-May and gradual implementation of the government’s relief measures helped push the KR-ECI up slightly to 37.3 in May, though remained low, compared to the 37.0 reported for April. Meanwhile, the 3-month Expected KR-ECI for May remained stati... Read more
25 May 2021
It is expected that Thai parents will be grappling with the COVID-19 pandemic once again during the 2021 school year. KResearch recently conducted a survey on views of parents (who have children studying in kindergartens to high schools) towards the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic during the 2021 school y... Read more
20 May 2021
The Cabinet recently approved the draft of an executive decree authorizing the government to borrow another THB700 billion, in addition to the previous THB1 trillion loan, which has almost been used up. The new loan is intended to help enhance the government’s flexibility in ensuring that the econom... Read more
18 May 2021
The Thai economy in 1Q21 shrank 2.6 percent YoY, less than the market forecast of -3.3 percent. This smaller-than-expected contraction was mainly driven by the global economic recovery and domestic stimulus packages, with Thai exports starting to exhibit strong signs of recovery in line with the eco... Read more
14 May 2021
Presently, there are concerns about rising inflation around the world, including in the US and Thailand. However, the nature of inflation and economic conditions in Thailand and the US differ. In Thailand, the current inflation has been driven by supply-side factors, and the fact that Thailand is be... Read more
11 May 2021
The latest wave of COVID-19, which began in April, caused the April KR-ECI to plunge to 37.0 from the 40.4 reported in March. Household purchasing power was significantly weakened by the severe impact of COVID-19 while relief measures were yet to be implemented amid surging energy costs. All KR-ECI ... Read more
20 Apr 2021
Due to the impact of the latest wave of COVID-19, KResearch projects that the Thai economy will grow at a slow rate of only 1.8 percent in 2021, against our prior estimate of 2.6 percent. We are of the view that the current COVID-19 pandemic in the country is much worse than the previous one. Additi... Read more
9 Apr 2021
The COVID-19 situation has intensified with a considerable rise in the number of cases. The epicenter of the new wave is Bangkok, and it has spread nationwide at a rapid rate, once more plunging the economy and households’ confidence into a high degree of uncertainty. In the forthcoming period, KR-E... Read more
2 Apr 2021
KResearch projects that Bangkok residents’ spending during the 2021 Songkran festival will amount to THB 24 billion, a 4.0-percent contraction compared to Songkran in 2019 (excluding 2020, when the holiday was postponed). Tourism expenditure and travel costs for hometown trips may be particularly a... Read more
9 Mar 2021
The KR Household Economic Condition Index (KR-ECI) in February 2021 and the 3-month Expected KR-ECI both rose from the previous month to 39.5 and 41.3, respectively. These figures indicate that Thai households’ concerns over their livelihood have declined from the previous month as the COVID-19 situ... Read more
15 Feb 2021
The Thai economy in 2020 shrank less than expected due to the support of the government’s stimulus packages. In 2020, the Thai economy contracted by 6.1 percent, which is slightly less severe than KResearch’s projection of -6.7 percent. The smaller-than-expected contraction can be primarily attribut... Read more
9 Feb 2021
The KR Household Economic Condition Index (KR-ECI) in January 2021 and the 3-month Expected KR-ECI both fell from the previous month to 37.2 and 38.8, respectively. Almost every component of the Index dropped, particularly employment and income level post COVID-19 resurgence since mid-December 2020... Read more
2 Feb 2021
While the Thai government relaxed its COVID-19-related measures in the Bangkok Metropolitan Area on February 1, 2021, and has announced a special holiday in February ( a three-day weekend), the COVID-19 situation has yet to be brought fully under control. Consumers’ purchasing power has long been a... Read more
8 Jan 2021
The KR-ECI and 3-month Expected KR-ECI fell to 40.2 and 40.7, respectively, in December 2020. All components of the KR-ECI also dropped. Households were more concerned about employment and income because of the resurgence of COVID-19 around mid-December 2020 (according to the survey conducted during... Read more
22 Dec 2020
Thailand recently reported a new wave of COVID-19 at a shrimp market in Samut Sakhon, which has led to a lockdown in this province from December 19, 2020 to January 3, 2021 as well as some cases in other provinces. Preliminarily, if no clusters of infections are found in more provinces or a broad-ba... Read more
14 Dec 2020
The KR-ECI improved for the fifth consecutive month in November 2020, standing at 41.0, which was almost on par with the pre-COVID level of 40.6 in January 2020, because households, especially those in the agricultural sector, were more optimistic about employment and income. The improvement was als... Read more
4 Dec 2020
A recent poll conducted by KResearch shows that if there were no government consumption-boosting programs, most Bangkok residents would have spent only THB5,300/person on average during the upcoming 2021 New Year holiday season due to concern about the prolonged coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic abroa... Read more
16 Nov 2020
The Thai economy in the third quarter of 2020 contracted by less than the consensus forecast of -8.0 percent YoY. The satisfactory recovery of economic activity in 3Q20 can be attributed in part to pent-up demand after the relaxation of lockdowns across many countries, including Thailand. The less-t... Read more
11 Nov 2020
The KR-ECI and 3-month Expected KR-ECI increased for the fourth consecutive month in October 2020 because households, in particular those in the agricultural sector, were more optimistic about employment and income. The improved sentiment seen in agricultural households was consistent with steady in... Read more
12 Oct 2020
KResearch views that the ‘‘Shop Dee Mee Kuen’’ (Shop and Payback) stimulus measure will likely benefit consumers earning at least THB500,00 per year or approximately THB42,000 per month. According to our behavioral survey, 70.0 percent of the total respondents (who are in the above consumer segment)... Read more
9 Oct 2020
The KR-ECI in September 2020 improved slightly over that reported for August 2020, implying that Thai households were more optimistic about their living conditions. The 3-month Expected KR-ECI also increased in alignment with the gradually recovery seen in economic activities after the government li... Read more
30 Sep 2020
According to the Bank of Thailand’s 2Q20 household debt report, Thailand’s outstanding household debt hit an 18-year high of 83.8 percent of GDP, rising from the 80.1 percent of GDP recorded during 1Q20. On a quarter-on-quarter basis, 2Q20 outstanding household debt increased THB92.2 billion, over t... Read more
28 Aug 2020
KASIKORN RESEARCH CENTER (KResearch) views that the Thai economy may have seen its trough in the second quarter on a QoQ basis. GDP for 2020 is projected to see a 10-percent contraction. Meanwhile, the Thai economy is likely to show a U-shaped recovery compared to the same period of last year. The f... Read more
17 Aug 2020
The Thai economy in 2Q20 shrank by -12.2 percent YoY, a lesser decline than the market expectations of -13.0 to -17.0 percent YoY, due to a resurgence in government spending and investment in 2Q20. This surge occurred amid the issuance of several stimulus packages, in particular the relief measure ... Read more
10 Aug 2020
The KR-ECI stood at 35.3 in July 2020, declining from 36.0 recorded in June 2020 because households were more concerned about debt, expenses and domestic prices of goods and services. Although the Bank of Thailand’s (BOT) has introduced the second phase of assistance measures for borrowers, debt ser... Read more
10 Jul 2020
KR-ECI in June 2020 stood 36.0, maintaining a similar level to 36.1 in May 2020. Over the previous month, the government has exercised further relaxation of preventive measures on activities and businesses in the yellow band (Phase 3) and the red band (Phase 4), as well as the revocation of the decr... Read more
15 Jun 2020
The KR-ECI increased to 36.1 in May 2020, over 35.1 reported for April 2020 because households were less concerned about income and employment after the government gradually introduced the first and second phases of easing the country’s lockdown for businesses classified in the “White” and “Green” g... Read more
4 Jun 2020
KResearch conducted a survey on the well-being of Thai households in Greater Bangkok in the wake of the COVID-19 outbreak, in the period between May 21 and May 28, 2020. Following are some of the most noteworthy findings from the survey... Read more
27 May 2020
During this time of every year, parents having school children have to set aside expenses for the new school year. These include tuition fees (for those sending their children to private and international schools), fees for education services and activities at schools, textbook, education equipment,... Read more
15 May 2020
The KR-ECI came in at 35.1 in April, which was relatively low compared to the reading of 43.5 recorded during the same period last year. The April KR-ECI, however, improved over that seen in March due chiefly to the decreased debt burden of households because an increasing number of them had been g... Read more
17 Apr 2020
The severe impact of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic abroad, especially in the US and Europe, plus social distancing measures to combat the viral disease, has dealt a big blow to the Thai economy and living conditions of Thai households at this time and over the next three months.... Read more
16 Mar 2020
The COVID-19 outbreak that intensified worldwide through February 2020 represents an important risk factor which is putting pressure on KR-ECI and 3-month Expected KR-ECI, falling to its lowest level in 73 months. The households surveyed expressed increasing anxieties in all aspects related to the c... Read more
13 Mar 2020
The outbreak of the Corona Virus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) has spread across the world to the extent that the World Health Organization (WHO) has raised its status to that of a pandemic, which has caused the global market to decline even further. This has generated even greater risk for Thai businesse... Read more
12 Mar 2020
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and key non-OPEC allies (collectively known as OPEC+) failed to reach an agreement to trim their oil production by another 1.5 million barrels per day (bpd) on March 6, 2020 after non-OPEC refused to support OPEC’s deeper production cuts. ... Read more
6 Mar 2020
The novel coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak is set to be severe and spread broadly around the globe after new infections outside of China, in particular South Korea, Italy and Iran have surged. So far, the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases has reached more than 90,000 in over 70 countries and territo... Read more
17 Feb 2020
The Thai economic performance, which has already been plagued by the ongoing trade war, anemic global economy and severe drought in the country, is being further undermined by the current COVID-19 outbreak. Given this, Thailand’s GDP grew at less than our prior estimates at 1.6 percent p.a. during 4... Read more
12 Feb 2020
The KR-ECI and 3-month Expected KR-ECI slipped to the lowest level in 72 months. The households surveyed were worried about all aspects related to the cost of living now and over the next three months, ... Read more
7 Feb 2020
A recent survey conducted by KResearch shows that a majority of the respondents or 66 percent of them were worried about the novel coronavirus outbreak with the epicentre in China, which has spread to other countries, including Thailand. Thais have hence paid more attention to preventive measures an... Read more
31 Jan 2020
New risks to the Thai economy have been seen. These include the novel coronavirus outbreak, which will likely hurt tourism receipts and a likelihood that the enforcement of the 2020 Budget Act will be delayed, thus preventing the government to use fiscal tools to fully steer the Thai economy. In ad... Read more
22 Jan 2020
The airborne PM2.5 has returned to become a serious issue since the start of 2020. The thickening smog, exceeding the standard safe level, prompted the Cabinet to approve measures to prevent and address the PM2.5 crisis on January 21, 2020. KResearch assessed the economic impacts of PM 2.5 particles... Read more
15 Jan 2020
• KR-ECI in December 2019 stood 42.4, up from 42.0 in November 2019. Households became less worried about their income and employment, partly due to seasonal factors, namely, the annual pay raise of private companies. Additionally, prices of various agricultural produce increased, boosting the farm... Read more
13 Jan 2020
We at KResearch expect that spending by Bangkok residents will reach approximately THB13.15 billion, shrinking 3.0 percent YoY, during the upcoming Chinese New Year. That amount of spending includes THB5.9 billion on votive offerings, THB3.75 billion on traveling and merit making, plus THB3.5 billio... Read more
23 Dec 2019
We at KResearch expect that average headline inflation may stand at 0.7 percent or within 0.4-0.9 percent in 2020, which would be at the same par as in 2019, amid risks stemming from drought and rising daily minimum wages.... Read more
19 Dec 2019
KResearch expects Bangkokians to spend approximately 29.8 billion Baht during the New Year festival 2020, a contraction of 3.2 percent YoY because people want to save their money and become more cautious in their spending. Moreover, some moved up their spending plans to benefit from the stimulus mea... Read more
12 Dec 2019
The 3-month Expected KR-ECI slipped for the second consecutive month to 42.1 in November, representing the lowest level in 27 months and declining from 43.5 reported for October. The decline was attributable to heightened concern among Thai households towards income and employment over the next thre... Read more
18 Nov 2019
The Thai economic performance remained lackluster in 3Q19 due to a number of factors. These include the anemic global economy, partly as a result of the prolonged trade war, while the strong Baht continued to undermine the pricing competitiveness of Thai exports amid limited growth in public and pri... Read more
12 Nov 2019
The KR-ECI in October 2019 dropped from 42.3 in September 2019 to 41.8 due to increased concerns of households over their income and employment, spending, savings and domestic product and service prices.... Read more
11 Oct 2019
The KR-ECI in September 2019 edged up from 41.9 in August 2019 to 42.3 in September due to declining concerns of households over their expenses, savings, debt burden and domestic prices. Nonetheless, they are more worried about their income and employment. This change shows that households have adju... Read more