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Economic Analysis

28 Jun 2019

International Economy

G20 Summit: Hopes to End Trade War May Fade Away (Business Brief No.3004)

All eyes are on the G20 Summit, in particular a talk between the US and China, the world’s superpowers, to end the trade war that will last for a year in July 2019. Looking back, it is believed that the US and China knew that they would not benefit from the persistent trade war. A clear consequence ... Read more

7 May 2019

International Economy

US-China trade war escalates…the US threat to hike tariffs on Chinese goods to 25 percent disrupts Thai trade outlook again (Current Issue No.2988)

The trade talks between the US and China last week did not produce a satisfactory outcome either side. Moreover, the US President Donald Trump announced plans to further raise tariffs on USD200 billion of Chinese goods from 10 to 25 percent starting Friday, May 10. The latest move puts greater press... Read more

29 Apr 2019

International Economy

Expected slowing US economy amid weaker-than-target inflation may signal a halt in Fed interest rate increase (Business Brief No.3799)

KResearch expects the Federal Reserve to maintain the policy rate at 2.25-2.50 percent during the Federal Open Market Committee meeting on April 30-May 1, 2019. The Fed’s hint at easing monetary policy will sustain the US economic growth in the remainder of this year. During 2Q19 and 3Q19, the US e... Read more

17 Apr 2019

International Economy

Chinese economy is likely to enjoy the highest growth at 6.4% YoY in 1Q19 before decelerating in the remainder of this year (Business Brief No.3796)

Chinese economy in 1Q19 expanded 6.4 percent YoY compared to 6.6 percent growth in 2018, while exports increased only 1.0 percent YoY versus 9.9 percent in 2018. Nonetheless, the government’s stimulus policy has begun to bear fruit to support the growth momentum of the Chinese economy. The Chinese... Read more

15 Mar 2019

International Economy

Slowing US economic indicators prompt the Fed to hint at only one rate hike in 2019 (Business Brief No.3792)

KResearch expects the US Federal Reserve (Fed) to keep the policy rates unchanged at 2.25-2.50 percent during the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on March 19-20, 2019. High external risk, slowing US economic activities and lower US inflation will prompt the Fed to hint at only one rate ... Read more

12 Mar 2019

International Economy

Fate of Brexit: Will the UK Find Solutions before the Deadline? (Current Issue No.2973)

After British Prime Minister Theresa May sustained a parliamentary defeat as MPs rejected her Brexit plan on January 15, 2019, the UK parliament is scheduled to vote on her revised withdrawal agreement again on March 12, 2019, being the second meaningful vote on whether to leave the EU without a dea... Read more

5 Mar 2019

International Economy

All eyes on Fed meeting, imminent US/China trade deal, and domestic factors which may impact the Baht in the short (Current Issue No.2971)

The Thai Baht weakened from late February to early March, 2019 after hitting a five-year record high of THB31.07 per Dollar. The Baht traded within a range of THB31.80-THB31.85 per Dollar (as of March 5, 2019) amid varied pressures, namely domestic factors and US Dollar short-covering from many mark... Read more

13 Feb 2019

International Economy

EPA, Effective February 1, 2019, to Bolster Thai Eco/Hybrid and Parts Exports Ahead (Current Issue No.2966)

From February 1, 2019 onward, Japan’s car and auto-parts exports to the EU will enjoy gradual cuts in import tariffs under the EU-Japan Economic Partnership Agreement (EPA). KResearch views that since the EU will likely have to import more vehicles and auto-parts from Japan, Japanese carmakers may n... Read more

28 Jan 2019

International Economy

FED is likely to keep interest rates unchanged during its first meeting in 2019... while continuing a cautionary monetary policy in line with future economic directions. (Business Brief No.3773)

KResearch expects the Federal Reserve to keep the policy rate unchanged at 2.25-2.50 percent during its first policymaking meeting of the year from January 29-30, 2019. Although the US economy has shown signs of solid growth, risks associated with global economic uncertainty may prompt the US centra... Read more

22 Jan 2019

International Economy

China’s 2018 Economy Growth Hit 28-Year Low, with Heightened Risk Seen in 2019 (Business Brief No.3782)

China’s economy grew 6.6 percent in 2018, declining substantially from the 6.8 percent pace recorded in 2017. Its economy has weakened steadily, especially during 4Q18 to 6.4 percent, representing the lowest growth in 28 years. The sharp decline in 4Q18 economic performance was attributable chiefly ... Read more

16 Jan 2019

International Economy

Uncertainty persists after the UK parliament’s rejection of Theresa May’s Brexit Plan (Current Issue No.2956)

The UK parliament voted to reject the Brexit deal presented by Prime Minister Theresa May on January 14, 2019 with 432 rejecting votes and only 202 approving votes. The result marks the heaviest parliamentary defeat of a British prime minister in history. The vote results show that members of the U... Read more

16 Jan 2019

International Economy

Japan overtakes Thailand to take 3rd position in CLMV-EPI Index, with focus on service investment in CLM (CLMV-EPI)

Thailand experienced the first time of its KR CLMV Economic Presence (CLMV-EPI) Index not being among the top three ranking since the fourth quarter of 2017, replaced by Japan at the third position as affirmed by its increasing role as a large investor in CLMV. Change in Japan’s direct investment in... Read more

14 Dec 2018

International Economy

FOMC Meeting, December 18-19, 2018: Policy Rate Hike likely while Fed’s 2019 Monetary Policy Stand Hinges on Economic Conditions (Business Brief No.3776)

We at KResearch view that the US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will likely raise its policy rate by another 0.25 percent to 2.25-2.50 percent over the current 2.00-2.25 percent at its final meeting of 2018 as it marches toward a more normal policy stance, given that the US economy has outperf... Read more

3 Dec 2018

International Economy

US-China trade truce to suspend imposing tariffs for 90 days eases short-term tension but impact on Thailand lingers (Current Issue No.2943)

On the sidelines of the G20 meetings in Buenos Aires, Argentina on December 1, 2018, US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping struck a temporary truce, agreeing not to increase punitive tariffs for 90 days after the G20 meetings to pave the way for negotiations to end the trade wa... Read more

19 Nov 2018

International Economy

Trade war may trigger more investment outflows from China but its benefits on Thailand will be limited to certain industries (Current Issue No.2939)

Uncertainties associated with the trade war between Washington and Beijing may prompt investors to manage their business risks by diversifying their investments from China to countries not directly affected by the trade battle. Nonetheless, direct benefits for Thailand will be limited because Thaila... Read more

7 Nov 2018

International Economy

US Midterm Election Results ... sending only weak economic stimulation amid ongoing trade war (Current Issue No.2935)

At present, the fast-paced business world is fuelled largely by digital disruption. The tourism and hospitality business is one of the industries that has experienced a rapid evolution in the past decade, with Online Travel Agencies (OTAs) emerging to become a force to be reckoned with. The OT... Read more

31 Oct 2018

International Economy

FOMC Meeting, September 7-8: Fed Continues to Signal More Rate Increases…Watch Out for Factors Affecting Rate Hike Timing in 2019 (Business Brief No.3770)

We at KResearch expect that the FOMC will resolve to keep its policy rate intact at 2.00-2.25 percent at the upcoming meeting slated for September 7-8, 2018 before raising the Fed Funds rate by another 0.25 percent at the final meeting of this year. Factors supporting the path of Fed’s monetary poli... Read more

19 Oct 2018

International Economy

Chinese Economy Slowed in 3Q18 Despite Accelerated Exports and Easing Monetary Policy…Watch Out for Challenges that May Further Hurt Growth in 2019 (Business Brief No.3767)

China’s economic growth slipped to 6.5 percent YoY in 3Q18, representing a record low since 2009. The decelerated growth was attributable to steady drop in its industrial production amid the country’s trade dispute, which is expected to escalate ahead, plus persistent sluggishness seen in household ... Read more

10 Oct 2018

International Economy

Fed rate, oil prices and regional currencies are 3 factors weakening Thai Baht late this year (Current Issue No.2931)

It is apparent that the Thai currency and the Thai government bond yields - especially the long-term bond yields - have begun to ostensibly “swing” in the last quarter of the year. The Thai Baht weakened to touch THB33.10 against the greenback on October 9 (when the net sales of equities and bonds b... Read more

21 Sep 2018

International Economy

Fed Meeting, Sep 25-26 ... Expected Rate Increase of 0.25% ... Intensified Trade Conflicts to be Watched (Business Brief No.3760)

KResearch expects the Federal Reserve (Fed) will raise the policy interest rate by 0.25 percent from 1.75-2.00 percent to 2.00-2.25 percent in its meeting slated for September 25-26, 2018. The Fed will also likely announce an increase in its balance sheet normalization process to the maximu... Read more

16 Aug 2018

International Economy

Turkish Currency Crisis…Limited Impacts on Thai Financial Sector (Current Issue No. 2924)

Financial markets worldwide are keeping close watch on possible risks and impacts that may be caused by the Turkish Lira crisis. Although the Lira has picked up somewhat (after hitting a historical low at 7.2362/USD on August 13), it will likely face many sell-offs ahead amid limited tools/resource... Read more

15 Aug 2018

International Economy

Closely watch Turkish currency crisis … Lira meltdown can put Eurozone economies at risk (Current Issue No. 2923)

In 2018, the Turkish economy is facing pressures from all sides amid risks threatening its economic stability such as the Federal Reserve interest rate hike, which accelerates fund outflows and continuously and quickly increases borrowing costs. An increasing oil price and weaker Turkish lira have c... Read more

26 Jul 2018

International Economy

FED is likely to maintain the interest rate at 1.75-2.00% at its meeting on July 31-August 1, 18...close attention to trade dispute (Business Brief No.3754)

KResearch expects the Federal Reserve (Fed) to hold the policy rates steady at 1.75-2.00 percent during the fifth round of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting this year. The risk factor - that may disrupt the path of the US economic recovery in the remainder of this year - is still the ... Read more

26 Jul 2018

International Economy

Trade War Likely to be Prolonged in 2019 … Possibly Affecting Thai Exports at 0.5%-0.6% of GDP (Current Issue No. 2922)

In 2018, the trade war provoked by the US may not produce significant repercussions on Thailand, given that the measures to impose new tariffs on solar panels, large washing machines, iron and aluminum since the beginning of the year has not involved considerable value. Despite, the first round of n... Read more

19 Jul 2018

International Economy

A Record-Low Yuan May Pressure Other Asian Currencies (Current Issue No. 2920)

From the beginning of 2018 to July 19, the Yuan weakened by more than 3.5 percent against the US Dollar, representing a new record low of CNY6.73/USD. Factors contributing to a rapid softening of the Yuan over the past few months include heightened risks stemming from the US-China trade war, which h... Read more

17 Jul 2018

International Economy

China achieved 6.7% economic growth in 2Q18…with challenge of long-term stability given prolonged trade disputes (Business Brief No.3751)

While China’s government policies have constrained growth in some economic sectors, its GDP report for 2Q18 indicated ongoing growth overall, reaching 6.7 percent YoY compared to the 6.8-percent pace reported for 1Q18. Considering growth components, the factors pressuring economic growth include the... Read more

11 Jun 2018

International Economy

Fed is expected to raise the policy rate by 0.25% during the meeting on June 12-13 supported by continuing expansion of the US economy (Business Brief No.3746)

KResearch expects the Federal Reserve (Fed) to raise its policy rate by 0.25 percentage points from 1.50-1.75 percent to 1.75-2.00 percent during the fourth round of the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting this year on June 12-13, 2018. A solid expansion of the US economy and the f... Read more

4 Jun 2018

International Economy

New context of Malaysian economy after“2018 poll: Closely watch major shift in economic policy amid fragile economic fundamentals (Current Issue No. 2913)

The economic policies recently announced by newly-elected Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad mark a major shift from those under the ousted Barisan Nasional government, especially the country’s policies on large-scale infrastructure investments. On May 28, 2018, Prime Minister Mahathir announ... Read more

25 May 2018

International Economy

China begins cutting tariffs to ease trade tensions with the US, but uncertainty lingers (Current Issue No. 2911)

Finally, China and the US have reached a compromise to ease trade tensions. Recently, Beijing announced that it will cut tariffs on imported passenger cars from 25 to 15 percent and auto parts from 10 to 6 percent, effective July 1, 2018. Looking forward, China is set to announce a string of measure... Read more

27 Apr 2018

International Economy

Fed Policy Rate Expected to Remain at 1.50-.175 in May Meeting…Continued Rise in US Bond Yield to be Monitored (Business Brief No.3739)

KResearch expects the Federal Reserve (Fed) will resolve to maintain its policy interest rate at 1.50-1.75 percent in its third meeting of this year, in awaiting to assess further developments of the US economy and risks arising from trade disputes. Given the US attempts to minimize their trade defi... Read more

19 Apr 2018

International Economy

China’s economy may slow after robust growth in 1Q18 (Business Brief No.3736)

In KResearch’s view, China’s economy may slow over the remainder of 2018, along with exports that will likely weaken as well, amid full-year growth that is expected to reach 6.6 percent YoY. Because accelerated shipments were already transacted before the effectiveness of new tariff rates per Sectio... Read more

23 Mar 2018

International Economy

Little impact expected on China from US trade measures but watchful for Thailand (Current Issue No. 2906)

US President Donald Trump has signed an executive memorandum to slap tariffs worth USD60 billion on Chinese exports, reasoning that China has infringed on US intellectual property per Section 301 Anchorof the 1974 Trade Act. Although this round of trade measures is the most serious so far against f... Read more

16 Mar 2018

International Economy

FOMC Meeting, March 20-21: Another 0.25% Rate Hike Likely, Watch Out for First Signal from New Fed Chair Powell (Business Brief No.3731)

We at KResearch expect that the US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will increase its key policy rate by another 0.25 percent to 1.50-1.75 percent at the second meeting of 2018 slated for March 20-21, given that the US economy has grown beyond its potential. Looking ahead, there is a likelihood ... Read more

14 Mar 2018

International Economy

Thailand must brace for trade disputes between the US, EU and China, etc. (Current Issue No. 2905)

The US is pressing ahead with trade measures against trade partners globally. In addition to their new ‘safeguard tariffs’ on imported solar panels and large washing machines imposed early in 2018, and more recently on imported steel and aluminum, the US is now preparing to implement protectionist m... Read more

6 Mar 2018

International Economy

China’s 2018 Economic Targets Reflect Slower Economic Growth, while Monetary and Fiscal Policies are Still Being Used to Sustain Economic Growth Ahead (Business Brief No.3730)

All eyes were on the National People’s Congress, March 5, 2018, because the ruling Communist Party proposed constitutional a... Read more

2 Mar 2018

International Economy

Planned New US Tariffs on Metal Imports Triggering More Intense Trade Protectionism (Current Issue No. 2903)

Throughout 2018, the US administration’s continual pursuit of protectionist trade measures has tended to increase volatility in global trade. Most recently, President Donald Trump announced that new “safeguard” tariffs would be imposed on steel and aluminum imports at 25 percent and 10 percent, resp... Read more

26 Jan 2018

International Economy

Fed Meeting Expected to Maintain Rate Leaving Room for Increasing Rate Later (Business Brief No.3725)

KResearch expects the US Federal Reserve (Fed) to maintain their policy rate at 1.25-1.50 percent during their first round of meeting o... Read more

26 Dec 2017

International Economy

The Philippines: Rising Market of ASEAN (Current Issue No. 2887 Full Ed.)

Thai exports to ASEAN-5 (Malaysia, Singapore, Indonesia, the Philippines and Brunei) account for 59.3 percent of our total exports to the entire AS... Read more

19 Dec 2017

International Economy

Chinese Economy Continues Momentum to Yearend Growth next year inches toward balance, Focus on Reforms (Business Brief No.3719)

China's latest economic indicators show that the Chinese economy has maintained momentum. Although China’s domestic eco... Read more

19 Dec 2017

International Economy

Chinese Economy Continues Momentum to Yearend Growth next year inches toward balance, Focus on Reforms (Business Brief No.3719)

China’s latest economic indicators show that the Chinese economy has maintained momentum. Although China’s domestic economic activity shows signs of a mild slowdown, their external trade remained solid. China’s economy continues to expand, but industrial manufacturing and investment have cooled, und... Read more

17 Nov 2017

International Economy

Chinese economy experiences slowdown but remains sturdy, paving the way for the government to step up its implementation of reforms (Business Brief No.3712 Full Ed.)

The latest set of economic indicators unanimously point to a Chinese slowdown, whether in terms of production, investment, or consumption. Indeed,... Read more

30 Oct 2017

International Economy

Fed Meeting, Oct 31-Nov 1 ... May Maintain Rate – New Fed Chairman & Tax Reform Big Issues (Business Brief No.3710)

KResearch holds the view that the FOMC will resolve during their meeting slated for October 31-November 1, 2017, to maintain their key policy rate... Read more

25 Oct 2017

International Economy

Eyeing Japanese Economic Policies After Abe’s New Mandate (Current Issue No. 2876 Full Ed.)

According to unofficial results, Japan's Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), led by Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, secured a commanding majority... Read more

20 Oct 2017

International Economy

Continued Growth of Chinese Economy Future Reforms to be Watched (Business Brief No.3708 Full Ed.)

China's latest economic indicators have suggested satisfactory growth during 3Q17, notably with 6.8-percent growth YoY in GDP, though this has slow... Read more

22 Sep 2017

International Economy

Fed Meeting, Sep 19-20: Smaller Balance Sheet Likely With Unchanged Policy Rate at 1.00-1.25% (Business Brief No.3700)

September 19-20, at their 6th meeting of 2017, KResearch expects the US Federal Reserve may signal the start of their balance sheet reductions by ... Read more

21 Sep 2017

International Economy

Changing Cambodian Market Pressuring Exports Stiff Competition from China and Vietnam (Current Issue No. 2866 Full Ed.)

Thai exports to Cambodia have risen over the past decade (2008-2016), recording an average growth of 12.6 percent YoY, excluding exports of... Read more

21 Sep 2017

International Economy

Changing Cambodian Market Pressuring Our Exports Stiff Competition from China and Vietnam (Current Issue No.2866)

Thai exports to Cambodia have risen over the past decade (2008-2016), recording an average growth of 12.6 percent YoY, excluding exports of refined petroleum products and gold because those prices are volatile in nature. However, it is noteworthy that the growth rate over the past five years (2012-2... Read more

18 Sep 2017

International Economy

Somber real domestic data reins in optimism from buoyant trade numbers, reinforcing view that policymakers will likely hold off on key reforms. (Business Brief No.3701)

Key real economy indicators released September 14th indicated a slowdown on both the supply and demand sides. Industrial... Read more

18 Sep 2017

International Economy

Somber real domestic data reins in optimism from buoyant trade numbers, reinforcing view that policymakers will likely hold off on key reforms. (Business Brief No.3701)

Key real economy indicators released September 14th indicated a slowdown on both the supply and demand sides. Industrial output for August expanded 6.0% YoY, down considerably from 6.4% during July, while fixed-asset investment grew 7.8% YTD YoY, slumping substantially from 8.3% during January-July.... Read more