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Financial Market & Institutions Analysis

25 Oct 2019

Financial Institutions

Slowing corporate loans curb the rebound of loan growth in September 2019 (Business Brief No.3829)

Net loans of commercial banks in September 2019 expanded within a limited range, due to lackluster signs of overall economic activity. Moreover, some big commercial banks have exercised a cautious approach in approving loans to ensure the quality of loans. Meanwhile, the growth of small and medium s... Read more

25 Oct 2019

Financial Markets

The Baht hit a new 6-year high of THB30.16/USD, while the SET closed below 1,600 points.

The Baht hit a new 6-year high. The Baht rose along with other regional currencies amid foreign investors’ net buying orders for Thai bonds early in the week. Meanwhile, the US dollar fell on weak US economic data, reinforcing expectations that the Fed would cut its benchmark rate further at the FOM... Read more

18 Oct 2019

Financial Markets

The Baht rose to test the THB30.25/USD level, while the SET fluctuated on external factors.

The Baht rose to test the THB30.25/USD level last week. The Baht briefly fell early-to mid-week in line with other regional currencies amid concerns about the slower global growth outlook. However, the Baht rebounded later in the week on the back of the US dollar’s sell-offs due to weak US economic ... Read more

17 Oct 2019

Financial Institutions

Slowing Economy Projected to Pressure Core Business Income of Commercial Banks and Heighten Asset Quality Problem Despite Steady Growth Seen in 3Q19 Profit (Current Issue No.3041)

Although 3Q19 earnings of Thai commercial banks show that the Thai commercial banking system overall has been able to maintain profitability from extraordinary items, cut expenses from setting aside reserves and undertake efficient cost management, KResearch has assessed that the sluggish Thai econo... Read more

16 Oct 2019

Financial Institutions

Upward gold price strengthens Thai Baht...the turning point may be timing of the Fed’s hint at no more rate cuts (Current Issue No.3025)

The continuously strengthening Thai Baht has caused worries among the export-related business sector and the domestic tourism industry. Since the beginning of 2019, the Thai Baht has risen 7.4 percent against the greenback and other key major and regional currencies. The Thai currency has surged in ... Read more

11 Oct 2019

Financial Markets

The Baht hit an over 6-year high, before paring gains somewhat, while the SET closed higher later in the week.

The Baht weakened late last week after hitting an over 6-year high of THB30.25/USD. The Baht rose early in the week as a safe-haven currency amid concerns about conflicts between the US and China over their trade renegotiations, as well as between the EU and UK on the BREXIT issue. However, the Baht... Read more

9 Oct 2019

Financial Institutions

Thai Baht Tested THB30.30/USD, Representing the Strongest in more than Six Years (Current Issue No.3039)

The Baht has appreciated to test THB30.30/USD, representing the strongest in more than six years and Asia’s best-performing currency. The Thai currency has strengthened by approximately 7.4 percent against the greenback, outpacing the Indonesian Rupiah and Philippine Peso, which have appreciated onl... Read more

4 Oct 2019

Financial Markets

The Baht rose as US dollar was pressured by soft US economic data, while the SET dropped on sell-offs of institutional and foreign investors.

The Baht strengthened late last week. The Baht fell early to mid-week on weak regional currencies, and risky assets amid heightened trade war tension, concerns over BREXIT, and an economic slowdown in the US and Eurozone. The Baht also tumbled along with net foreign stock selling orders. The Baht, h... Read more

27 Sep 2019

Financial Markets

The Baht fell to the weaker side of THB30.60/USD, while the SET ended the week higher on Window Dressing.

The Baht fell to the weaker side of THB30.60/USD last week. The Baht weakened on the back of net foreign stock and bond selling orders during the week. Meanwhile, most Asian currencies were weighed down by uncertainties about the global economic outlook, and the UK’s BREXIT solution. The US dollar a... Read more

26 Sep 2019

Financial Institutions

Net loans of commercial banks in August 2019 continue to slow in line with economy (Business Brief No.3822)

Net loans of commercial banks (14 banks) in August 2019 increased only 3.84 percent YoY, the same growth as the rate registered in July 2019, which is the lowest rate in 21 months. Loan outstandings continue to slow in alignment with the overall economic sentiment. In particular, business loans are ... Read more

19 Sep 2019

Financial Institutions

MPC Likely Keep Policy Rate Steady at September 25, 2019 Meeting While Its Monetary Policy Stance Hinges Mainly on Thai Economic Developments (Business Brief No.3819)

We at KResearch expect that the Bank of Thailand (BOT)’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will likely maintain its policy rate at 1.50 percent during the sixth meeting of 2019 slated for September 25, 2019. The fact that 3Q19 economic indicators did not deteriorate from those seen in 2Q19 may give th... Read more

13 Sep 2019

Financial Markets

The Baht hit a 6-year high, while the SET dropped over-week.

The Baht hit a 6-year high of THB30.36/USD in line with movements of the Yuan and other regional currencies amid positive signals of the US-China trade conflicts. The US delayed to raise tariffs on USD250 billion of Chinese imports until October 15 from October 1, while China announced lists of the ... Read more

10 Sep 2019

Financial Institutions

Life insurance business for 2019 continues to slow down in spite of a slight recovery in 2H19 (Current Issue No.3030)

Life insurance premiums received in 1H19 totaled THB295 billion, contracting 6.1 percent YoY. In 2H19, the business is likely to slightly rebound, but the mild recovery is not enough to push the overall business performance for the whole of 2019 back to positive territory. Total life insurance pre... Read more

6 Sep 2019

Financial Markets

The Baht was volatile before weakening late in the week, while the SET rose on eased concerns over external risks.

The Baht was volatile last week. The Baht fell early in the week, along with the Yuan and other regional currencies, amid concerns about the US-China trade dispute. The Baht rebounded later, while the US dollar faced sell-offs after the ISM Manufacturing Index showed a contraction in the US manufact... Read more

30 Aug 2019

Financial Markets

The Baht rose while the SET fluctuated on trade war issues.

The Baht hit an almost 2-month high of THB30.55/USD last week. The Baht rose earlier in the week along with other safe-haven assets after the US and China announced to raise tariffs on each other’s goods, heightening tension over the trade war tension. The Baht fell briefly during the week on US do... Read more

23 Aug 2019

Financial Markets

The Baht rose while the SET fluctuated but closed higher by the end of the week.

The Baht rose against the US dollar. The Baht rose early to mid week, along with other regional currencies while the US dollar faced sell-offs on concerns about the US economic outlook and falling US Treasury bond yields. The Baht extended gains against the US dollar, although foreign investors were... Read more

16 Aug 2019

Financial Institutions

Curbing DSR of Low-Income Earners May Shave Retail Loan Growth by 5% (Current Issue No.3023)

New reports over the past one month may represent signals confirming that the Bank of Thailand (BOT) is in the process of carrying out two important matters to cope with hefty household debt. These include: 1) determining lending guidelines for low-income earners; and 2) preparation to set common le... Read more

16 Aug 2019

Financial Markets

The Baht weakened while the SET fell below 1,600 points before rebounding later in the week

The Baht weakened against the US dollar. The Baht fell along with regional currencies, while the US dollar rose after the US announced to delay imposing tariff on some Chinese imports to December 15. The Baht’s weakness was also in line with net foreign stock and bond selling orders, following sell... Read more

15 Aug 2019

Financial Institutions

Lending rate cuts...generate over THB16 billion in net benefit to economy (Business Brief No.3813)

Within one week after the Bank of Thailand announced a policy rate cut, major Thai commercial banks have followed suit by cutting lending rates for their general customers. These banks have slashed their minimum overdraft rate (MOR) and minimum retail rate (MRR) by 12.5-25 basis points, but are keep... Read more

9 Aug 2019

Financial Markets

The Baht rose while the SET faced pressure from domestic and foreign factors.

The Baht briefly fell after the FOMC meeting. The Baht rose early in the week, as the US dollar fell further on weak US Non-farm Payrolls data and concerns over the US-China trade tensions. The Baht extended its gains later in the week, although it fell briefly after the BOT’s MPC unexpectedly cut i... Read more

7 Aug 2019

Financial Institutions

MPC Cuts Policy Rate for the First time in 4 Years … Its Impact on Economy Warrants Close Monitoring Ahead (Current Issue No.3017)

Thailand’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted 5-2 to cut the benchmark rate for the first time in four years to 1.50 percent, from 1.75 percent, at its meeting, August 7, 2019. The MPC attributed its move to the weakening signs seen in the export sector and domestic demand, which have caused the ... Read more

5 Aug 2019

Financial Institutions

MPC Gives Weight to Risks to Financial System Stability While Making Economic Assessment (Business Brief No.3812)

KResearch projects that the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will keep its policy rate steady at 1.75 percent at the fifth meeting of 2019 slated for August 7, 2019. It is expected that the MPC will attach importance to long-term stability at the upcoming meeting as it is experiencing more challenges... Read more

26 Jul 2019

Financial Markets

The Baht fell while the SET ended the week lower on sell-offs of institutional investors.

The Baht weakened against the US dollar. The Baht fell early to mid week amid expectations that the Fed might not aggressively cut its policy rate in the near future. The Baht’s weakness was also in line with net foreign bond selling orders. Meanwhile, the US dollar rose on the budget deal between t... Read more

25 Jul 2019

Financial Institutions

June Net Loans Increased Only Slightly on Slower Growth in Commercial and Retail Loans (Business Brief No.3810)

Commercial loans and many types of retail loans grew at a slow pace while SME loans did not recovered in June. This caused June net loans overall to increase only THB10.7 billion or 0.09 percent MoM. When compared to the same period of last year, June net loans expanded at the sluggish pace in almos... Read more

19 Jul 2019

Financial Markets

The Baht rebounded while the SET rose on expectation of Fed rate cut.

The Baht rebounded later in the week. The Baht weakened early to mid week, along with net foreign bond selling orders. The Baht later reversed those losses and rebounded amid the weak US dollar sentiment, led by disappointing US economic data, and NY Fed President’s remarks that reinforced expectati... Read more

18 Jul 2019

Financial Institutions

Unfavorable Core Business Income Continues to Inhibit 2Q19 Profit of Commercial Banks (Current Issue No.3008)

We at KResearch project that net profit overall of commercial banks registered in Thailand will reach approximately THB51-52 billion in 2Q19, declining from the THB52.59 billion reported for 1Q19. Operating profit in 2Q10 may recover at a slower pace because income growth from core business of comme... Read more

15 Jul 2019

Financial Institutions

BOT issues measures to monitor short-term capital inflow Reduce channels for parking money to curb rapid gains of Thai Baht (Current Issue No.3007)

The Bank of Thailand (BOT), on July 12, 2019, issued the measures to enhance short-term capital flow surveillance under the measures to prevent Thai Baht speculation formally announced after the central bank had earlier sent signal and expressed concerns over the rapid gains of Thai Baht which had s... Read more

12 Jul 2019

Financial Markets

The Baht weakened after BOT implemented measure to monitor short-term fund inflows, while the SET closed near last week’s level

The Baht fluctuated and fell later in the week after the release of BOT’s new Baht measure. The Baht fell early in the week on the US dollar short-covering orders before the Fed Chairman’s testimony to the US Congress. The Baht, however, rebounded after the Fed Chairman’s comment was seen as a signa... Read more

5 Jul 2019

Financial Markets

The Baht weakened slightly after rising to a new 6-year high, while the SET pared gains on domestic investor sell-offs.

The Baht fell slightly after having hit a 6-year high of THB30.52/USD. The Baht rose on net foreign stock and bond buying orders, while the US dollar fell on weak economic data that reinforced expectations about the Fed policy rate cut. However, the Baht pared those gains later, while the US dollar ... Read more

28 Jun 2019

Financial Markets

The Baht hit a new 6-year high, while the SET rose on foreign investors’ net-buying positions.

The Baht strengthened against the US dollar during the week. The Baht hit a new 6-year high of THB30.62/USD early in the week amid expectations that the Fed might cut its policy rate at its meeting in July. However, the Baht fell on position adjustment around mid-week before bouncing back after the ... Read more

25 Jun 2019

Financial Institutions

Short-term corporate loans push net loans in May 19 up by almost THB90 billion over-month, highest jump this year. (Business Brief No.3807)

Bridge loans and working capital loans for corporate accelerated in May while retail loans in almost every category, especially auto loans as well as secured and unsecured personal loans, continued to increase. Hence, the net loans of 14 Thai commercial banks as of the end of May 2019 rose by almost... Read more

21 Jun 2019

Financial Markets

The Baht recorded a 6-year high, while the SET hit its highest level in 8 months.

The Baht hit a 6-year high against the US dollar. The Baht fell briefly early in the week, as investors covered their short US dollar positions ahead of the FOMC meeting. However, the Baht rebounded later and hit the strongest level in 6 years at THB30.79/USD after the Fed meeting. Although the Fed ... Read more

20 Jun 2019

Financial Institutions

MPC meeting on Jun 26 is expected to keep policy rate unchanged…amid concerns over stability of monetary system (Business Brief No.3805)

KResearch expects Thailand’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) to keep the policy rates unchanged at 1.75 percent during its fourth meeting of 2019. The MPC is likely to weigh risk factors to financial stability in its monetary policy. In particular, household debts further accelerated in the first q... Read more

14 Jun 2019

Financial Markets

The Baht hit a 3-1/2 month high, while the SET rose on expectation of Fed rate cut within this year.

The Baht hit a 3-1/2 month high of THB31.14/USD. The Baht rose along with net foreign stock and bond buying orders earlier in the week. In addition, the US dollar tumbled on an expectation that the Fed might cut its policy rate by the end of the year, and disappointing US economic data, including we... Read more

7 Jun 2019

Financial Markets

The Baht hit an over 3-month high, while the SET rose on domestic and foreign factors.

The Baht hit the strongest level in over 3 months at THB31.28/USD. The Baht strengthened in line with net foreign stock and bond buying orders, while the US dollar fell on the Fed Chairman’s remarks that the Fed would act appropriately to sustain the US economic expansion, fuelling expectation of th... Read more

31 May 2019

Financial Markets

The Baht strengthened, while the SET dropped on the trade wars despite support from foreign investors’ net purchase.

The Baht strengthened, after having fallen earlier in the week. The Baht weakened along with other regional currencies that were pressured by concerns about the trade tension between the US and China. However, the Baht rebounded later in the week on net stock and bond buying orders of foreign invest... Read more

24 May 2019

Financial Markets

The Baht rebounded later in the week, while the SET fluctuated on US-China trade tensions.

The Baht rebounded later in the week, after having fallen to the THB32.00/USD level. The Baht fell early to mid week, along with the weaker Yuan and other regional currencies amid heightened trade tension between the US and China. However, the Baht pared losses somewhat and recovered later in the we... Read more

17 May 2019

Financial Markets

The Baht weakened, while the SET hit a 4-month low amid concerns over US-China trade tensions.

The Baht weakened later in the week. The Baht fell briefly in line with weaker Yuan and other Asian currencies. The Baht later rebounded to a 2-1/2 month high of THB31.45/USD on net foreign bond buying orders, as market participants put focus on the US Treasury’s FX report. However, the Baht fell la... Read more

10 May 2019

Financial Markets

The Baht hit an over 1-month high, while the SET faced institutional and foreign investor sell-offs.

The Baht tested the THB31.55/USD level, an over 1-month high, in late week. The Baht rose early in the week amid heightened tension between the US and China on their trade deal. In addition, there were short-covering orders, as Thai financial markets reopened after long holidays. The Baht weakened b... Read more

7 May 2019

Financial Institutions

Roles of ATMs amid Transition Towards Cashless Society Needed to be Recognized (Current Issue No.2987)

In 2018, the number of ATMs and electronic devices used in the commercial banking system contracted 0.98 percent YoY, against the 5.17 percent growth reported for 2017, representing the first shrinkage in 35 years. Such a contraction was consistent with the substantial increase in the number of fina... Read more

3 May 2019

Financial Markets

The Baht weakened slightly, while the SET rose almost throughout the week.

The Baht fell slightly, but still traded within a narrow range around THB32.00/USD. The Baht edged up early in the week, as the US dollar barely drew any support ahead of the FOMC meeting. The Baht weakened later in the week, as the US dollar rose after the Fed gave no signal to cut its policy rate ... Read more

30 Apr 2019

Financial Institutions

MPC Meeting, May 8, 2019: Policy Rate Likely on Hold Pending Economic Development (Business Brief No.3800)

We at KResearch expect that the Bank of Thailand’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will likely keep its policy rate intact at 1.75 percent during the third meeting of 2019 pending an assessment of Thai economic development and results of the implementation of macro-and micro-prudential monetary poli... Read more

26 Apr 2019

Financial Markets

The Baht traded at the weaker side of THB32.00/USD before rebounding, while the SET faced pressure from domestic and foreign factors.

The Baht hit a near 4-month low of THB32.10/USD, before paring losses. The Baht fell in line with net foreign selling orders of Thai bonds and weak regional currencies. The US dollar rose on stronger-than-expected US economic data, and also extended gains against the Euro on the back of concerns abo... Read more

25 Apr 2019

Financial Institutions

The Baht Weakens Past THB32.00/USD Again…Regional and Political Factors May Pressure Thai Currency Ahead (Current Issue No.2985)

The Baht weakened past THB32.00/USD, moving within a range of THB32.02-32.09/USD on April 25, 2019, representing the weakest level since the beginning of 2019 and declining by approximately 1.5 percent from that reported one month ago. The softening Thai currency was consistent with cautious stance ... Read more

25 Apr 2019

Financial Institutions

Net loans in March 2019 increase MoM… but 1Q19 sees bearish sentiment which persists from late 2018 due to business loan repayment (Business Brief No.3798)

Net loans in March 2019 expanded from the previous month but the increase fails to lift the overall loans in 1Q19 back to positive territory. Net loans declined by 0.11 percent compared to the outstanding loans at the end of 2018, attributable chiefly to a steady drop of corporate and SME loans of s... Read more

19 Apr 2019

Financial Markets

The Baht fell to THB31.80/USD, while the SET rose on buying orders of local institutions.

The Baht fell to THB31.80/USD. The Baht weakened after the reopening of domestic financial markets following long public holidays. The Baht’s weakness was in line with net foreign stock and bond selling orders while the US dollar gained on stronger-than-expected US economic data, including a fall in... Read more

12 Apr 2019

Financial Institutions

Auto loan control measures …enhance long-term financial stability for businesses and borrowers (Current Issue No.2981)

The Bank of Thailand recently sent a warning about increasing risks associated with auto loans due to competitive tactics by some banks in collaboration with some auto companies and car dealers to approve loan amount beyond the collateral value. For example, they did not deduct the discount the cust... Read more

12 Apr 2019

Financial Markets

The Baht rose and the SET rebounded late in the week.

The Baht pared gains later in the week. The Baht rose early in the week on foreign investors’ net buying orders of Thai stocks, while the US dollar fell on a weak US Factory Orders data for February. Later, the Baht pared gains on net foreign bond selling orders, as well as weak regional currencies,... Read more

5 Apr 2019

Financial Institutions

Reduction in Funds Transfer Fee via Digital Channels Continued to Pressure NIM of Thai Commercial Banks in 1Q19 (Current Issue No.2977)

The cancellation of funds transfer fee via digital channels was the main factor that continued to pressure operating results of Thai commercial banks during 1Q19. It is expected that their fees from other transactions, in particular insurance brokerage, management and advisory fees, may grow at a sl... Read more

5 Apr 2019

Financial Markets

The Baht weakened and the SET paired gains after surging early in the week.

The Baht fell later in the week. The Baht rose early in the week in alignment with the Yuan and other regional currencies amid stronger-than-expected Chinese PMI reported for March. However, the Baht’s upside gains were still limited as market participants awaited a clearer picture of domestic polit... Read more

29 Mar 2019

Financial Markets

The Baht and the SET recovered somewhat at the end of the week.

The Baht rebounded slightly, after having fallen earlier in the week. The Baht fell early to mid week in line with net foreign selling orders in the Thai stock and bond markets, while investors kept an eye on political situations after the general elections. In addition, the US Dollar rose amid conc... Read more

26 Mar 2019

Financial Institutions

February Retail Loans Driven by Short-Term Factors (Business Brief No.3795)

Net loans accelerated in February, supported by key retail loans, i.e. home and auto hire-purchase loans, in line with growing loan demand as a result of short-term factors. These include higher number of home ownership transfers before the enforcement of a new home loan measure on April 1, 2019 and... Read more

22 Mar 2019

Financial Markets

The Baht stayed in a narrow range while the SET surged at the end of the week.

The Baht stayed in a narrow range, but was volatile after the MPC and FOMC meetings. The Baht moved in a narrow band before falling to a 2-week low of THB31.97/USD after the BOT’s MPC members unanimously voted to keep its policy rate at 1.75%, and the BOT also revised downward its 2019 GDP forecast.... Read more

15 Mar 2019

Financial Markets

The Baht rose slightly while the SET continued to drop over the past week.

The Baht edged up against the US dollar. The Baht rose slightly early in the week while the US dollar fell on weaker-than-expected US CPI and PPI reports for February. The soft US inflation figures reinforced expectations that the Fed’s policy rate-hike pace would be slower this year. However, the B... Read more

1 Mar 2019

Financial Markets

The Baht hit a 1-month low while the SET faced foreign investor sell-offs.

The Baht hit a 1-month low. The Baht edged up early in the week on optimism about the US-China trade talks. The Baht, however, tumbled to a 1-month low of THB31.76/USD on the back of foreign investors’ selling orders of Thai stocks and bonds late in the week. The US dollar also gained on the rising ... Read more

26 Feb 2019

Financial Institutions

Net loans in Thai commercial bank system in Jan 2019 decelerate during the business loan repayment season (Business Brief No.3790)

KResearch summarizes the information about loans, deposits and financial liquidity at 14 Thai commercial banks as of the end of January 2019 based on the Summary Statement of Assets and Liabilities with highlights as follows: ... Read more

22 Feb 2019

Financial Markets

The Baht reversed gains, while the SET index rose due to external factors

The Baht hit the highest level in more than 5 years at THB31.07/USD, before reversing those gains later in the week. The Baht rose along with risky assets and other regional currencies, including the Yuan amid the US-China trade talks. It also gained on hefty net foreign stock buying orders in mid-w... Read more

20 Feb 2019

Financial Markets

The Baht Surges toward THB31.00/USD amid Hopes for Positive Results in US-China Trade Talks (Current Issue No.2969)

It is worth noting that although foreign investors have held a net selling position in both the Thai stock and bond markets, with a combined worth of approximately THB20.4 billion, since early 2019, the Baht has appreciated quite substantially against other Asian currencies, in particular the Yuan, ... Read more

8 Feb 2019

Financial Markets

The Baht weakened while the SET index closed near last week’s level

The Baht traded in a narrow range, before weakening later in the week. Although the Baht moved within a limited range, it had a slightly strong bias on the back of net foreign stock and bond buying orders. However, the Baht fell later in the week on the BOT’s signal to step into the market ... Read more

1 Feb 2019

Financial Markets

The Baht hit an almost 9-month high while the SET index rose as Fed held interest rates steady

The Baht hit an almost 9-month high of THB31.18/USD after the FOMC meeting. The Baht rose in line with net foreign stock buying orders and other Asian currencies. The US dollar, however, tumbled on the Fed’s dovish statement. The Fed cut a reference to the Fed’s plan for further gradual rate hikes a... Read more

31 Jan 2019

Financial Institutions

Thai Baht surges past THB31.25/USD as weaker greenback continues to pressure Thai currency (Current Issue No.2962)

Thai Baht has surged to THB31.23/USD or up 4.4 percent from the beginning of this year due mainly to a weaker US dollar. The movement of Thai Baht was in alignment with other currencies in the region. However, from the beginning of this year, the Thai currency hit a record high in nine months and be... Read more

31 Jan 2019

Financial Institutions

MPC meeting on Feb 6 is likely to keep rate unchanged, while future rate hike depends on economic situation (Business Brief No.3786)

KResearch expects the Bank of Thailand’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) to keep the policy rate unchanged at 1.75 percent during the upcoming meeting after it raised policy rate by 0.25 percentage point on December 19, 2018. Since the Thai GDP growth begins to show signs of slowdown, the... Read more

31 Jan 2019

Financial Institutions

Stringent Control on Lenders Taking Car Registration Book as Collateral Set Clear Standards to Protect Consumers (Business Brief No.3785)

Over the past few years, the Bank of Thailand (BOT), Ministry of Finance and other relevant agencies have gradually introduced notifications and/or regulations to supervise various types of retail loans. Their attempts are intended to set clear scopes and conditions for related businesses, as well a... Read more

29 Jan 2019

Financial Institutions

Robust Net Loan Growth Seen at 2018 Yearend, Driven by Retail Loans (Business Brief No.3784)

In December 2018, net loans overall grew over the previous month by THB118 billion, or 1.03 percent MoM. As a result, net loans for 2018 increased 5.17 percent YoY, with net outstanding loans outstanding at THB11.63 trillion. Growth was seen in all types of loans, led by retail loans. Meanwhile, out... Read more

18 Jan 2019

Financial Markets

The Baht hit an 8-month high while the SET faced institutional investor sell-offs

The Baht hit an 8-month high before paring gains later in the week. The Baht rose in line with net foreign stock buying orders and rising risky assets. Meanwhile, the US dollar faced sell-offs on the back of weak US economic data, signals to slow the US-rate hike path from the Fed Vice Chairman, and... Read more

4 Jan 2019

Financial Institutions

Fixed deposit rate hike is in line with the BOT signal on policy rate increase and the banks’s attempt to maintain their market shares. (Current Issue No.2952)

The uptrend of interest rate is ultimately evident by commercial banks’s decisions to raise their interest rates by starting from deposit rates. Their fixed-deposit rates for three, six, 12, 24 and 36 months are raised by 25 basis points. Hence, the fixed deposit rates of some major commercial banks... Read more

4 Jan 2019

Financial Markets

The Baht hit a 7-month high while the SET index rose during the first week of the year

The Baht hit a 7-month high of THB32.00/USD. A stronger Baht was due to the US dollar’s sell-offs amid concerns about a partial government shutdown. Meanwhile, weaker-than-expected US economic data hurt the US dollar sentiment and reinforced worries about uncertain US interest rate hike cycle. The B... Read more

28 Dec 2018

Financial Markets

Baht rises while SET index rebounds slightly on last trading day of 2018

The Baht rose to test THB32.40/USD later in the week amid the US dollar’s sell-offs on the back of concerns about the US partial government shutdown, economic slowdown in the US and globally, as well as prolonged trade tension between the US and China.... Read more

26 Dec 2018

Financial Institutions

Credit Card Growth of Commercial Banks Sustained at 7% 0% Installment Remaining Most Favorite (Current Issue No.2950)

The credit card business is likely to end the year with satisfactory growth, similar to other types of retail loans. Toward the year-end, competition of the credit card business is characterized by active campaigns and special promotions presented by commercial banks and non-bank operators to boost ... Read more

24 Dec 2018

Financial Institutions

2019 Thai Bank Outlook … Many Challenges for their Profitability (Current Issue No.2948)

The year 2018 has been another year for Thai banks to always be vigilant of various issues. While their fee incomes have contracted due to the reduction of digital funds transfer fees, loan growth has been helpful in offsetting this negative factor. With the support of retail loan growth in the last... Read more

20 Dec 2018

Financial Institutions

The Monetary Policy Committee increases the policy rate for the first time in 7 years; the impact on economic growth is likely to be limited. (Business Brief No.3777)

The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) agrees to lift the policy rate by 0.25 percentage points from 1.50 to 1.75, the first rate increase in seven years. The lift is aimed at building policy space for the future. KResearch views that the policy rate increase is unlikely to have a significant impact on... Read more

14 Dec 2018

Financial Institutions

MPC meeting on 19/12/18…Greater chance of interest rate hike After clear signal on enlarging policy space (Business Brief No.3775)

KResearch views that there is a greater chance that this year’s last meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will resolve to increase the policy interest rate by 0.25 percent after some signals were clearly sent by the committee on the necessity to rebalance the monetary policy in order to en... Read more

14 Dec 2018

Financial Markets

“The Baht rose slightly while the SET index fell sharply over-week.”

The Baht rose, but within a narrow range. The Baht rose slightly in line with the Yuan and other Asian currencies amid easing concerns about the US-China trade tension after news reported that China could undo the tariffs on American-made cars. However, the Baht’s upside gains were capped later whil... Read more

30 Nov 2018

Financial Markets

“The Baht strengthened while the SET index rose along with foreign stock markets as Fed might slow the pace of its interest rate hikes next year.”

The Baht broke the THB33.00/USD level. The Baht rose amid the US dollar’s sell-offs after the Fed Chairman said that the Fed’s benchmark rate is just below neutral level. The remarks were seen as a signal for a slower tightening cycle of the Fed rate hikes in 2019. However, the Baht’s upside gains w... Read more

23 Nov 2018

Financial Markets

“The Baht weakened while the SET index recovered somewhat late in the week.”

The Baht weakened later in the week. It briefly rose early in the week on doubts about the US rate-hike outlook next year after Fed officials expressed concerns about the weaker global economic outlook. However, the Baht reversed gains and fell later in the week on a weaker-than-expected 3Q-18 Thai ... Read more

16 Nov 2018

Financial Markets

“The Baht rose slightly, while the SET index remained in the downward trend.”

The Baht was stronger than THB33.00/USD again. It briefly fell early in the week on the US rate-hike prospect, which helped support the US dollar sentiment. However, the Baht rebounded later on as the US dollar faced sell-offs amid hopes for solutions toward the BREXIT deal and US-China trade negoti... Read more

9 Nov 2018

Financial Markets

“The Baht weakened, while the SET index fell due to external factors.”

The Baht was weaker than THB33.00/USD again. The Baht was volatile early in the week ahead of the US mid-term elections. However, the Baht rebounded later on as the US dollar fell after the midterm elections results. Democrats won the U.S. House of Representatives while Republicans held on to their ... Read more

9 Nov 2018

Financial Institutions

New housing loan requirement by BOT will stimulate transactions before its enforcement on April 2019 (Current Issue No.2936)

The Bank of Thailand has announced the criteria to supervise housing loans by adjusting certain details in the Consultation Paper and postponed the effective date to April 1, next year (from the initial schedule of January 2019). The new requirement will not cover purchase and sale contracts or down... Read more

2 Nov 2018

Financial Markets

“The Baht rebounded later in the week, while the SET index rose following institutional investor purchases.”

The Baht strengthened later in the week. The Baht hit a 2-1/2 month low of THB33.32/USD in early week amid the weakening Asian currencies and Yuan on the back of news that the US will escalate its trade dispute with China by imposing tariffs on all remaining imports from China. The US dollar rose fu... Read more

26 Oct 2018

Financial Markets

“The Baht broke the THB33.00/USD level, while the SET rebounded after falling below 1,600 points.”

The Baht weakened and later broke the THB33.00/USD level. The Baht fell on a disappointing Thai export data and hefty net foreign stock selling-orders during the week. Meanwhile, the US dollar rose amid risk aversion, triggered by concerns about the EU’s formal steps to reject Italy's budget and Chi... Read more

26 Oct 2018

Financial Institutions

Stable Net Loans and Deposits at Thai Commercial Banks in September 2018 (Business Brief No.3769)

In September, net loans in the Thai commercial banking system rose THB3.76 billion or 0.03 percent over the previous month, reaching THB11.345 trillion. The increase, which was supported by growth in all types of retail loans, resulted in the rise in net outstanding loans by 5.78 percent as compared... Read more

19 Oct 2018

Financial Markets

“The Baht rose slightly, while the SET dropped amid foreign investor sell-offs.”

The Baht strengthened, but its gains were capped later in the week. The Baht rose early- to mid-week along with net foreign bond buying orders while the US dollar fell on a weaker-than-expected US retail sales data. However, the Baht pared gains somewhat later in the week in line with falling... Read more

10 Oct 2018

Financial Institutions

Regulation on Auto-for-Cash Loans: Creating Standard for Retail Financing (Current Issue No.2932)

Government policy to expand the supervision of the providers of auto-for-cash loans to be approved by the Bank of Thailand and Ministry of Finance is an important step toward more extensive supervisory scope with respect to financial service providers. With a well-defined, transparent business frame... Read more

4 Oct 2018

Financial Institutions

Mortgage loan measures…to curb market imbalance before the uptrend of interest rates (Current Issue No.2929)

The Bank of Thailand has planned to issue macro-prudential measures to control speculation in the property market, where the measures are expected to set the loan-to-value (LTV) for the second home or other specific requirements to ensure debt servicing ability of the borrowers. KResearch ... Read more

28 Sep 2018

Financial Markets

“The Baht stayed in a tight range, while the SET index closed a bit higher than the last week level”

The Baht rose slightly late in the week, but its movement remained tight. The Baht fell early in the week in line with other regional currencies amid steepened tension related to the US-China trade deal after China canceled trade talks with the US before the latter’s new tariffs on Chinese goods wer... Read more

26 Sep 2018

Financial Institutions

2018 Loans Likely Exceed Projection Target on Steady Growth Seen in August Net Loans (Business Brief No.3763)

Net loans in the Thai commercial banking system (14 commercial banks) grew THB26.4 billion to THB11.34 trillion in August, rising 0.23 percent MoM or 5.85 percent YoY. The increase was supported by all types of retail loan while SME loans began to recover somewhat. However, because there were still ... Read more

14 Sep 2018

Financial Institutions

MPC Meeting, September 19, 2018: Policy Rate Likely on Hold at 1.50% Pending an Appropriate Rate Hike Ahead (Business Brief No.3759)

We at KResearch are of the view that the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will likely keep its policy rate steady at 1.50 percent during the meeting scheduled for September 19, 2018. This is because it may not see the need to raise its policy rate much at this time despite steady improvements in the ... Read more

14 Sep 2018

Financial Markets

“The Baht strengthened, while the SET index rebounded strongly”

The Baht hit a 2-month high last week. The Baht fell briefly early in the week on concerns about the fragile emerging markets while the US dollar extended gains on a stronger-than-expected US Non-farm Payrolls data. However, the Baht rebounded later in the week, along with net foreign buying orders ... Read more

7 Sep 2018

Financial Markets

“The Baht edged weaker, while the SET index fell below the 1,700 level”

The Baht traded in a narrow range, but weaker than the previous week. The Baht fell on weak regional currencies that were pressured by sell-offs of emerging market currencies on the back of their fragile economies. Meanwhile, the US dollar was supported by ongoing trade disputes between the US and i... Read more

31 Aug 2018

Financial Markets

“The Baht weakened later in the week, while the SET index rose over-week”

The Baht fell, after having hit a 2-month of THB32.50/USD. The Baht rose on net foreign bond buying orders and the US dollar’s sell-offs on the back of US-Mexico trade deal. However, the Baht weakened later in the week, as the US dollar strengthened on stronger than expected US economic reports that... Read more

24 Aug 2018

Financial Markets

“The Baht hit a 2-month high, while the SET index rose over-week”

The Baht broke the THB33.00/USD level. The Baht rose to a 2-month high of THB32.65/USD after the Yuan and other Asian currencies rose on the back of optimism on the US-China trade negotiations. The US dollar faced sell-offs after US President Trump criticized the Fed Chairman and said that he disagr... Read more

17 Aug 2018

Financial Markets

“The Baht recovered and the SET index rebounded late in the week”

The Baht rose late in the week. The Baht fell briefly early of the week, after concerns about the Lira crisis triggered sell-offs of emerging-market assets, Asian currencies, and the Baht. However, the Baht later pared those losses and recovered on the back of the rebounding Yuan and other Asian cur... Read more

10 Aug 2018

Financial Markets

“The Baht weakened late in the week, while the SET index closed a bit lower than the last week level.”

The Baht pared gains around end of week. The Baht earlier rose on net foreign stock buying orders, and the rebounding Yuan after the PBOC signaled that they would take action to stabilize the Yuan movement. The US dollar sell-offs on the back of the falling US bond yields were also the Baht’s suppor... Read more

6 Aug 2018

Financial Institutions

MPC Meeting, August 8, 2018: Policy Rate Likely Kept on Hold at 1.50% to Ensure Steady (Business Brief No.3755)

KResearch expects that the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will resolve to maintain their policy rate at 1.50 percent during the fifth meeting of 2018 slated for August 8 to ensure that the recovery is seen across all economic sectors and inflation moves toward to its set target. It must be noted th... Read more

3 Aug 2018

Financial Markets

“The Baht weakened after the FOMC meeting, while the SET index fluctuated.”

The Baht weakened after the FOMC meeting. The Baht briefly rose on net foreign stock and bond buying orders. However, the Baht reversed those gains later in the week, along with weakening Yuan and regional currencies. Meanwhile, the dollar rose on the Fed’s statement, signaling that they would likel... Read more

26 Jul 2018

Financial Markets

“The Baht rose, while the SET index closed at over 1,700 points.”

The Baht rose against the US dollar. A stronger Baht was in line with other Asian currencies, while the US dollar faced sell-offs after the US President said that the Fed’s tightening cycle might have impacts on the US economy and the strong US dollar could result in weaker US competitiveness. The U... Read more

25 Jul 2018

Financial Institutions

Solid Growth Seen in June Net Loans, Driven by Corporate and Retail Loans while Deposits Declined (Business Brief No.3753)

Net loans overall for June increased over the previous month by THB106 billion to THB11.31 trillion, or 0.95 percent MoM, the highest level in 1H18. When compared to the same period of 2017 and at the end of 2017, June net loans grew 5.02 percent YoY, or 2.23 percent YTD, chiefly at large banks in l... Read more

13 Jul 2018

Financial Markets

“The Baht hit a 9-month low, while the SET index soared up over-week.”

The Baht hit over 9-month low of THB33.29/USD. The Baht fell to THB33.36/USD, the weakest level in 9 months. A weaker Baht was in line with the Yuan and regional currencies amid concern about the international trade situation between the US and China. Meanwhile, the US dollar also gained on strong U... Read more

6 Jul 2018

Financial Markets

“The Baht weakened, while the SET index closed at over 1,600 points.”

The Baht hit over 8-month low of THB33.29/USD. The Baht and regional currencies fell along with risky assets, and Chinese Yuan (although the PBOC signaled to monitor the Yuan movement) amid concern about the international trade situation between the US and China, as US tariffs imposed on imports fro... Read more

29 Jun 2018

Financial Markets

“The Baht hit over 8-month low of THB33.22/USD, while the SET index closed at a 10-month low.”

The Baht hit over 8-month low of THB33.22/USD. The Baht fell along with Chinese Yuan, most Asian Currencies, and other risky assets amid concerns about the international trade situation between the US and their trading partners, especially restrictions on investment and trade. The Baht was also pres... Read more

26 Jun 2018

Financial Institutions

P2P Lending ... a good opportunity for retail borrowers At the heart of the platform is risk management (Current Issue No. 2917)

Around 4-5 financial technology start-ups have begun providing Peer-to-Peer Lending (P2P Lending) in Thailand by focusing on retail borrowers, especially SME entrepreneurs. The online lending platform should provide these borrowers with an increased access to finance with a cheaper interest rate bec... Read more

25 Jun 2018

Financial Institutions

May Net Loans Grew Steadily MoM while Deposits Fell Slightly (Business Brief No.3749)

Net loans for May increased to almost the same level as that in April by THB65.9 billion, or 0.59 percent MoM to THB11.20 trillion. When compared to the same period of 2017 and at the end of 2017, May net loans grew 4.99 percent YoY, or 1.27 percent YTD due to the low base of last year. The increase... Read more

22 Jun 2018

Financial Markets

“The Baht hit over 7-month low of THB33.00/USD, while the SET index dropped over-week.”

The Baht broke the THB33.00/USD level to hit over 7-month low. The Baht fell along with net foreign stock and bond selling orders, while the US dollar rose further on the Fed Chairman’s remarks about more interest rate hikes in the coming months. Meanwhile, concerns about the international trade sit... Read more

15 Jun 2018

Financial Markets

The Baht hit over 5-month low, while the SET index rose early before dropping through the end of the week.

The Baht hit over 5-month low of THB32.46/USD. The Baht fell on net foreign stock and bond selling orders, while the US dollar rose strongly after the FOMC meeting. The Fed gave a hawkish signal that there would be two more rate hikes later in the year, compared with one hike signaled earlier. The ... Read more