16 Jul 2021
Financial Institutions
KResearch expects that the overall performance of Thai commercial banks in 2Q21 may see an increase in net profit over-year since the economy was hit by the first wave of COVID-19 in 2Q20. However, net profit in 2Q21 may dip to a mere THB 34.8 billion, against the THB38.7 billion that was registered... Read more
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9 Jul 2021
The Baht has weakened rapidly amid heightened risks from the third wave of the COVID-19 pandemic, which tends to be difficult to control as authorities grapple with COVID-19 variants. As a result, the Baht hit a 15-month low at THB 32.73 per USD (during the trading sessions on July 9, 2021). Meanwhi... Read more
21 Jun 2021
KResearch expects that the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will keep its policy rate on hold at 0.50 percent during the meeting slated for June 23, 2021, in order to support Thailand’s economic recovery amid low inflationary pressures. The Thai economy remains fraught with risks from the COVID-19 o... Read more
25 May 2021
While the COVID-19 outbreak continues to ravage the country and further delays economic recovery, the Thai financial system will be flush with liquidity demand throughout 2021, thanks to fundraising efforts by the government – which are required to promote spending to support the economy. Concurrent... Read more
7 May 2021
The COVID-19 outbreak has been a key factor in boosting the growth of mobile banking and e-wallet transactions. A recent survey conducted by KResearch found that Thai consumers generally conduct around 19 funds transfers and/or payments for goods and services per week via mobile banking and e-wallet... Read more
30 Apr 2021
KResearch expects that the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will keep its policy rate steady at 0.50 percent during the meeting scheduled for May 5, 2021 to support economic recovery amid this period of heightened uncertainty. This economic atmosphere stems from the new COVID-19 outbreak which remain... Read more
The credit card business is one of the businesses that has been adversely affected by the COVID-19 pandemic because a credit card serves as a payment tool in lieu of cash, which means that credit card spending and credit card loans tend to decline whenever there is an economic downturn.... Read more
22 Apr 2021
KResearch has compiled major financial data from the consolidated financial statements of nine commercial banks and their subsidiaries for 1Q21. The latest data reveals that these commercial banks and their subsidiaries recorded a net profit of Baht 46.071 billion, or growth of 47.4 percent QoQ, c... Read more
12 Apr 2021
KResearch assesses that net profit of domestically-registered commercial banks (Thai banking system) may have inched up during 1Q21. While income from core businesses of commercial banks may have yet to fully recover due to the pandemic’s impact on economic activity across numerous Thai industries,... Read more
1 Apr 2021
Currently, the trend for digital-only banks (or digital banks) is gaining a lot of traction. Numerous central banks across Asia including Singapore, Malaysia, Taiwan and Hong Kong, to name but a few places, have issued digital banking licenses to applicants. These moves have been made in the hope of... Read more
According to the Bank of Thailand (BOT)’s latest report on loans to household in 4Q20, household debt exceeded THB14 trillion as of the 2020 year-end, which is the highest ever recorded by the BOT in 18 years. This figure amounts to 89.3 percent of 2020 GDP. In terms of growth, outstanding household... Read more
25 Mar 2021
Nano-finance under the supervision is referred to as retail loans for business purposes, which target individuals with no regular income, account statements with banks and assets prescribed as collateral. The nano-finance business contracted during 2019-2020 due to a number of factors. These include... Read more
23 Mar 2021
We at KResearch assess that the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will likely keep its policy rate steady at 0.50 percent during the meeting scheduled for March 24, 2021 as the government has steadily implemented a series of economic stimulus measures with the aim of easing the impact of a new wave of... Read more
The financial position of Thai businesses, particularly small and medium enterprises (SMEs), remains precarious amid the uncertainties that are hindering economic recovery. Revival of the economy remains subject to progress made in vaccinations, both domestically and internationally; as well as the ... Read more
17 Mar 2021
Yields on Thai government bonds (bond yields) have risen steadily since the beginning of 2021. For the 10-year Thai government bond, its yield surged to the highest level in two years and eight months, at 2.05 percent, so far this year. We at KResearch assess that the yield on the 10-year Thai gover... Read more
11 Feb 2021
Quantitative easing (QE) is a form of unconventional monetary policy, which is typically used by central banks of major countries, including several nations in Asia, in helping address their economic woes after having to cut their policy rates to near zero percent. The details and size of asset purc... Read more
29 Jan 2021
KResearch assesses that the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) may keep its policy rate steady at 0.50 percent during its first meeting of 2021, scheduled for February 3, because the government has just implemented new monetary and fiscal measures. Its spending under the new fiscal stimulus package acc... Read more
27 Jan 2021
Based on 4Q20 financial statements of commercial banks, KResearch assesses that non-performing loans (NPLs) in the commercial banking system may reach approximately THB523 billion as of the end of 2020, accounting for 3.16 percent of total loans. For 2021, we are of the view that NPLs will likely tr... Read more
22 Jan 2021
Aside from growing risks posed by the new COVID-19 outbreak which may hamper Thailand’s economic recovery in 2021, another important factor that warrants attention is the rising fund raising cost in the Thai bond market early in the year. This situation is partly due to projections regarding the inc... Read more
13 Jan 2021
The new COVID-19 outbreak which has dragged on into 2021 continues to affect economic activity that had previously been on the verge of recovery. Such circumstances have further intensified the issues of financial vulnerability, lack of liquidity and deteriorating debt servicing ability among many ... Read more
6 Jan 2021
Since the start of 2021, major currencies and Asian currencies, including the Chinese Yuan, have continued to strengthen while the greenback has been facing sell-off, pressured by the Fed’s quantitative easing and the US presidential transition. Meanwhile, the Thai Baht’s value has surged past the 3... Read more
30 Dec 2020
According to the Bank of Thailand’s latest report on loans to households during 3Q20, Thailand’s household debt remained at a high level and is projected to rise steadily amid weak economic conditions. The household debt to GDP ratio hit a new 18-year high of 86.6 percent in 3Q20, driven by new home... Read more
29 Dec 2020
In 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic has not only dealt a blow to economic activity, but pressured operating results of commercial banks in many ways. KResearch expects that net profit of domestic-registered commercial banks may reach THB144 billion, representing the lowest level in nine years since 2012.... Read more
17 Dec 2020
KResearch expects that the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will keep its policy rate steady at 0.50 percent during the meeting slated for December 23, 2020 because there are signs showing steady recovery in the Thai economy after the government implemented measures aimed at stimulating the economy a... Read more
16 Dec 2020
Auto hire purchase is another business that has been affected by the COVID-19 pandemic. Its impact on purchasing power consequently affected the outstanding balance of auto loans in 3Q20, causing a slower growth rate at 3.5 percent, as opposed to 7.7 percent in 2019. The slowdown resulted from a dec... Read more
20 Nov 2020
The Thai financial market has substantially been affected by increased volatility and downside risks in the global financial markets since the beginning of 2020. Recently, there was an influx of investment in assets within the emerging markets, including Thailand, following the US Presidential elect... Read more
16 Nov 2020
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9 Oct 2020
KResearch assesses that the pandemic-stricken economic environment continued to undermine commercial banks’ profitability in 3Q20, with both interest income and fee income on a declining trend that corresponds to the continuous slump in economic activity across many sectors. Moreover, the interest i... Read more
2 Oct 2020
The White House’s recent confirmation that President Donald Trump was diagnosed with coronavirus (COVID-19) is an issue that warrants close monitoring in the days ahead. KResearch views that President Trump’s illness may not affect his popularity as a Republican candidate for the US presidential ele... Read more
28 Sep 2020
Life insurance is among businesses that have been adversely affected by the COVID-19 pandemic. In the first seven months of 2020, life insurance premiums contracted by 3.6 percent YoY, reaching THB 329 billion. For 2020, life insurance premiums are projected to shrink in the range of 6 to 2 percent ... Read more
25 Sep 2020
Changing economic conditions as a result of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic present a number of challenges to personal loan (PLoan) service providers, both commercial banks and non-bank financial institutions. Key challenges include how to adjust strategies to reach targeted customers faster tha... Read more
22 Sep 2020
We at KResearch expect that the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will keep its policy rate steady at 0.50 percent during its meeting slated for September 23, 2020 to maintain the monetary policy space. The MPC may view that a policy rate cut to near zero is not necessary at this time because it can... Read more
The digital personal loan regulations promulgated in the most recent announcement of the Bank of Thailand encourage service providers to use alternative data that does not concern personal income data to assess the willingness and ability of borrowers’ debt payment. This arrangement reflects two pos... Read more
11 Sep 2020
Preparedness for a new context in the financial world resulting from permanent cessation of the London Interbank Offer Rate (LIBOR) as an interest rate benchmark for financial transactions is an important mission of financial regulatory authorities in many countries. For Thailand, the Bank of Thaila... Read more
1 Sep 2020
KResearch views that the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic is an important catalyst in transforming the way Thai consumers conduct funds transfer and pay for goods and services. Such trends have given rise to the “New Normal” which is geared towards making money transfers and purchases that do not require p... Read more
23 Jul 2020
KResearch assesses that, as of 2020, digital lending service in Thailand is still in its infancy and modest in scale as digital lenders lack sufficient customer data for risk profile assessment. Therefore, digital lending service during this initial period is seen mainly as an alternative for existi... Read more
20 Jul 2020
Persistent weakness seen in the Thai economy as a result of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic since early 2020 has substantially hurt the profitability of commercial banks during 2Q20. The highly volatile economic cycle at this time has pressured income of commercial banks’ core businesses and in ... Read more
7 Jul 2020
According to the latest information, Thailand’s outstanding household debt in 1Q20 fell by THB 3.56 billion compared to the previous quarter – down to THB 13.47 trillion, the first such drop in four and a half years, and close to the outstanding household debt of THB 13.48 trillion in late 2019; due... Read more
22 Jun 2020
The Bank of Thailand (BOT) is forging ahead with its Phase II package of relief measures for small borrowers, which will emphasize relieving the financial burden of retail debtors by lowering the interest rate ceiling on credit cards and personal loans, as well as cutting the interest rate for refin... Read more
Regarding the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) Meeting on June 24, 2020, KResearch has assessed that the committee will consider putting the policy rate on hold at 0.50 percent as it waits to gauge the effectiveness of the monetary and fiscal measures that were previously issued. These measures inclu... Read more
4 Jun 2020
In April 2020, many countries around the world, including Thailand, began to implement lockdown measures to combat the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. This has resulted in economic stagnation. At the same time, foreign investors became net sellers of Thai stocks and bonds. Meanwhile, the Baht has g... Read more
29 May 2020
The coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic has altered the business environment of commercial banks in two ways: 1) The speed of disruption has become faster; and, 2) There has been a “New Normal” environment in the commercial banking business. Such changes have inevitably affected business model of commer... Read more
25 May 2020
The Monetary Policy Committee’s decision to trim its policy rate on May 20, 2020 has prompted commercial banks in Thailand to cut their interest rates once again a few days after that. Large commercial banks have concurrently announced to reduce their minimum loan rates (MLR), minimum retail rates (... Read more
18 May 2020
KResearch expects the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) to consider adjusting interest rate downward by 0.25 percent from the current level of 0.75 percent to 0.50 percent, amid this risk-prone economic environment. The Thai economy has been significantly affected by the outbreak of COVID-19, as it ex... Read more
8 Apr 2020
On 7 April 2020, the Bank of Thailand (BOT) issued additional measures to assist the private sector in combating the COVID-19 which primarily concern short-term liquidity boosting measures offered to small to medium enterprises (SMEs) that have been affected by the spread of the COVID-19 virus – a g... Read more