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Econ Digest

5 Oct 2020

Econ Digest

Skyrocketing household debt amid a shrinking economy

The latest report from the Bank of Thailand revealed that Thailand’s 2Q20 household debt had risen following the disruption of economic activities during the COVID-19 pandemic. The outstanding household debt hit an 18-year high of 83.8% of the GDP, rising from 80.1% of the GDP recorded during 1Q20. ... Read more

3 Oct 2020

Econ Digest

Money and capital markets may become volatile…Close attention must be paid to the US President’s illness

Money and capital markets fluctuated following the news that US President Donald Trump had been diagnosed with coronavirus (COVID-19). Risky assets experienced sell-offs, while the direction of the US Dollar was mixed (it largely depreciated against the Yen but appreciated against other currencies).... Read more

2 Oct 2020

Econ Digest

“Let’s Go Halves” program: to reduce cost burdens for consumers and increase sales volumes for retail stores

The new stimulus package called “Kon La Khreung” (Let’s Go Halves or the government’s 3,000-Baht cash handout program), effective October-December 2020, sets conditions that differ from previous spending stimulus measures. In addition to the subsidy that is capped at 10 million people and at THB3,00... Read more

30 Sep 2020

Econ Digest

Cross-border data flows: the agreements on the usage of personal data across borders and business opportunities for Thai entrepreneurs

Presently, cross-border data flows are imperative for business expansion and global trade as they have driven global economic growth by 0.3%, or around USD2.6 trillion in value, over the past decade. Business organizations must rely on cross-border data flows in order to better understand the market... Read more

25 Sep 2020

Econ Digest

COVID-19 hinders exports: Thailand’s cross-border exports to Myanmar in 2020 may fall below THB100 billion, but the impact of stringent border restrictions on trade is insignificant

Myanmar has recently announced several requirements for truck drivers from Thailand: It is now necessary for drivers crossing the Myanmar border via Chiang Rai’s Mae Sai checkpoint to be replaced with Myanmar nationals. Furthermore, only six vehicles of any kind bearing Thai license plates are allow... Read more

23 Sep 2020

Econ Digest

Use of fruit picking robots: AgriTech to transform the Thai fruit farming sector with investment paid back within 4 years

Thailand is a major fruit production base globally; although the world economy is facing a crisis due to the COVID-19 outbreak in 2020, the total value of Thai fruit exports this year should be able to sustain a growth to THB120-150 billion, or 6.1-10.5% year-on-year. Along with the need to accelera... Read more

22 Sep 2020

Econ Digest

MPC Meeting on September 23, 2020: To focus on boosting liquidity for businesses and households, while likely to keep policy rate steady at 0.50% until the end of this year

KResearch expects that the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will keep its policy rate steady at 0.50% at least until the end of this year during its meeting slated for September 23, 2020 to maintain the monetary policy space. The MPC may view that a policy rate cut to near zero is not necessary at th... Read more

21 Sep 2020

Econ Digest

Drafting of the UK’s Internal Market Bill set to trigger a No-Deal Brexit

Amid the domestic political turmoil that the UK has grappled with since the initiation of the Brexit process in 2016, and based on the approaching time constraint and the latest development whereby the UK government plans to introduce the drafting of the Internal Market Bill which would allow the UK... Read more

18 Sep 2020

Econ Digest

Prohibition on sales of alcoholic beverages by electronic means

The Prime Minister’s Office has issued a proclamation of Prohibition on Sales of Alcoholic Beverages by Electronic Means B.E. 2563 on August 7, 2020, the main contents of which are: 1) It is prohibited for any person to sell alcoholic beverages or provide services related to alcoholic beverages dire... Read more

17 Sep 2020

Econ Digest

KR-ECI improves due to the support of domestic tourism stimulus measures and Phase 6 lockdown relaxation

The KR Household Economic Condition Index (KR-ECI) in August 2020 and the 3-month Expected KR-ECI stood at 36.4 and 38.4 respectively, increased from the survey in July 2020, suggesting that the perception of households towards living conditions improved in line with the relaxation of lockdown measu... Read more

15 Sep 2020

Econ Digest

Vitamin water:an expanding new segment of the beverage market

Although Thailand’s beverage business has recently shown a slowing trend, it is expected that healthy beverages will become products that meet the needs of the new generation of consumers. In particular, vitamin water (a category of water plus beverages) has become an interesting new segment of the ... Read more

15 Sep 2020

Econ Digest

The Fed is expected to hold its policy rate steady at 0.0-0.25% at its September 15-16 meeting after the adoption of an average inflation target of 2%

KResearch expects that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will maintain its policy rate at 0.0-0.25% at its meeting during September 15-16, 2020, ... Read more

14 Sep 2020

Econ Digest

The trend of contactless payment is attracting a new customer base to mobile banking and e-wallets

The COVID-19 pandemic has been an important catalyst in transforming the way Thai consumers conduct funds transfers and pay for goods and services. Such trends have given rise to the “New Normal”, which is geared towards making money transfers and purchases that do not require physical contact, othe... Read more

11 Sep 2020

Econ Digest

“Haitao”… Cross-border e-commerce - reaches 300 million users…Opportunities for Thai brands to expand into the Chinese market

The Chinese e-commerce market is the largest in the world with a value of around USD1.5 trillion in 2019, accounting for approximately 55% of the global e-commerce market value, and larger than the value of the US e-commerce market by two times. As the economy grows and purchasing power rises, Chine... Read more

10 Sep 2020

Econ Digest

THOR: the new reference rate that business operators should know

The end of the London Interbank Offered Rate (LIBOR) began about eight years ago when financial regulators in the US and Europe discovered that certain financial institutions deliberately reported distorted and false LIBOR rates for certain benefits. The incident severely damaged the credibility of ... Read more

9 Sep 2020

Econ Digest

The Fed’s new monetary policy reinvigorates the Dow Jones index, but could lead to financial market turmoil in the future

The Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell announced a major adjustment to monetary policy at the Economic Policy Symposium held in Jackson Hole on August 27, 2020. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has unanimously approved a shift in Longer-Run Goals and Monetary Policy Strategy, by ad... Read more

8 Sep 2020

Econ Digest

Rainstorms and rice output

The influence of the Sin Lagu and Higos storms during July and August caused continuous rain, flash flooding and floodwaters in many areas and resulted in damages in many provinces. KResearch views that the flooding in many of the northern and northeastern provinces of Thailand may not significantly... Read more

3 Sep 2020

Econ Digest

Free trade agreements link Thailand’s and the world’s automobile industries through agile supply chain production

The COVID-19 pandemic has affected the global automobile supply chain since the beginning of 2020, leading global automakers and parts manufacturers, especially Japanese automakers, to adopt new business models in order to reduce risks. Production has shifted from lean production that originally foc... Read more

1 Sep 2020

Econ Digest

The FED adjusts its target for “New monetary policy” and the impact on Thai Baht

The Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell announced a major adjustment to monetary policy at the Economic Policy Symposium held in Jackson Hole on August 27, 2020. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has unanimously approved a shift in Longer-Run Goals and Monetary Policy Strategy, by ad... Read more

28 Aug 2020

Econ Digest

Thai Economy Faces Challenges

KASIKORN RESEARCH CENTER (KResearch) views that the Thai economy may have seen its trough in the second quarter on a QoQ basis. GDP for 2020 is projected to see a 10-percent contraction. Meanwhile, the Thai economy is likely to show a U-shaped recovery compared to the same period of last year. The f... Read more

27 Aug 2020

Econ Digest

Cloud Kitchen partners with food delivery service to launch the equipped central kitchen…targeting the delivery or takeaway customer base

In response to the food delivery business in Thailand, a new type of restaurant called Cloud Kitchen is undergoing a growth trend as food delivery becomes popular with consumers. This has been taking place especially during the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic, prompting an approximately 1.5-fold inc... Read more

26 Aug 2020

Econ Digest

The withdrawal of the EU’s EBA preferential arrangement could change Cambodia’s industries and exportation

The “Everything But Arms” (EBA) preferential trade arrangement of the European Union (EU) has played a significant role in changing Cambodia’s trade structure, especially after the year 2011 when the EU relaxed the rules of origin for exports from Cambodia. Thanks to this arrangement, exportation fr... Read more

25 Aug 2020

Econ Digest

Highly risky global economy may drag Thai exports down to a contraction of 12% in 2020

Thailand’s exports during the first seven months of 2020 contracted 7.7% YoY, while the export value in July alone stood at USD18,819 million, shrinking 11.4% YoY. Excluding oil, gold and arms shipments, Thai exports, however, contracted 13.0% YoY. Gold exports reverted to growth in July in line wit... Read more

20 Aug 2020

Econ Digest

Senior housing business…How to meet the needs of customers?

Thailand will become a fully aged society [1] in 2024, becoming a super-aged society [2]within the next 12 years or in 2032. There will be a marketplace of products and services designed to make life easy and safe, specifically for those of the aging population with purchasing power or savings. The ... Read more

19 Aug 2020

Econ Digest

Green Bonds…A solution to environmental protection and sustainable business management

As the new generation has shifted to a boom in consumption of alternative products in which the carbon dioxide emissions of production processes are reduced in the long term, such as biodegradable plastics and meat substitutes from plants/laboratories, etc., this business model has begun to attract ... Read more

18 Aug 2020

Econ Digest

Thailand’s GDP contracted 12.2% in 2Q20, while a contraction of more than 6.0% is expected for the whole year

The Thai economy shrank by 12.2%YoY in 2Q20, which is better than the 13.0% to 17.0%YoY contraction projected by the market, thanks to the expansion of government spending and investment under various economic stimulus measures, especially the THB5,000 relief fund per head for 3 consecutive... Read more

14 Aug 2020

Econ Digest

The reasons beyond data security that caused the US to ban foreign social media companies

The crisis of the COVID-19 pandemic has continuously driven the growth of the number of users of social media applications, which are becoming the main channel for interaction between consumers while maintaining social distancing, and which result in a large amount of consumer information rapidly fl... Read more

13 Aug 2020

Econ Digest

New CODEX standards for allergen management throughout the food production chain

At the recent 43rd Session of Codex Alimentarius Commission meeting, the issue of improving food safety management in the food production chain were discussed, for which operators including upstream producers, processing plants, retail stores and restaurants must prepare, as CODEX is preparing to an... Read more

11 Aug 2020

Econ Digest

KR-ECI reflects more concerns over the next three months

The KR Household Economic Condition Index (KR-ECI) stood at 35.3 in July 2020, declining from 36.0 in June, because households were more concerned about debt burden, expenses and domestic prices of goods and services. Although the Bank of Thailand (BOT) has introduced the second phase of debt relief... Read more

6 Aug 2020

Econ Digest

Fierce competition in the food delivery application industry

Due to the outbreak of the COVID-19 epidemic in Thailand, the government has imposed stringent measures to temporarily restrict the commercial sector from providing services, severely affecting the restaurant industry, only retaining takeaway channels with food being delivered to residences. As a re... Read more

4 Aug 2020

Econ Digest

MPC Meeting on August 5, 2020: Policy rate likely on hold at 0.5%

KResearch estimates that at the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) Meeting on 5 August, the Committee will put the policy rate on hold at 0.50% to gauge the domestic economic conditions, especially for 2Q20 GDP which is expected to be the largest contraction of the year. If the economic contraction is... Read more

31 Jul 2020

Econ Digest

Gluten free, a popular trend in free-from foods An opportunity to promote a new champion product from “Thai cassava”

Gluten-free foods are foods that do not contain the gluten protein found in wheat, barley and oats. Gluten ingestion affects the immune system of people who are allergic to this type of protein, known as a gluten allergy or celiac disease, causing abnormalities in the digestion system and in food ab... Read more

30 Jul 2020

Econ Digest

Gluten-free flour can bring an added value of up to THB 486 billion to fresh cassava

Thailand is a major exporter of primary agricultural products in the world, but given the fluctuation of the prices of agricultural products while the global economy adapts to the new normal, the development of added value for agricultural products is an urgent task. The processing of agricultural p... Read more

29 Jul 2020

Econ Digest

Thailand’s Environmental Performance Index improves in 2020, boosting confidence in trade and investment

Thailand’s 2020 Environmental Performance Index (EPI) has risen to 78th in the world, up from 121st in 2018, which is better than the global average and better than similarly ranked countries such as China and the Philippines. However, with the current problems of PM 2.5 particulates, water and drou... Read more

27 Jul 2020

Econ Digest

Fed to keep policy rate steady at 0.0-0.25% during July 28-29 meeting…and may embrace Yield Curve Control if the US economy downturn lasts longer than expected

KResearch expects that the Fed will maintain its policy rate at 0.0-0.25 percent during the Monetary Policy Committee Meeting on July 28-29, 2020, as the measures previously implemented by Fed should be sufficient to support a US economy that shows weak tendencies and will take longer to recover. ... Read more

25 Jul 2020

Econ Digest

Despite Thailand’s exports shrinking by 23.2% in June, the exports of food products grew by 6.8% as lockdown measures abroad boosted the demand for Thai food products

The value of Thai exports in June 2020 stood at USD 16,444 million, shrinking 23.2 percent YoY. As a result, Thai exports contracted by 7.1 percent YoY during the first half of 2020 due to the severe impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and the enforcement of lockdown measures abroad, which resulted in w... Read more

24 Jul 2020

Econ Digest

Growth opportunities for digital lending in Thailand remain dependent on access to data and investment in digital technology

Digital lending is a loan service carried out through online platforms such as applications and websites, and which uses alternative data other than information from bank statements or income for credit approval while using AI technology or Big Data Analytics to speed up the credit approval process.... Read more

21 Jul 2020

Econ Digest

Hong Kong, a cause to reignite US-China trade war

The recent revocation of Hong Kong's special status by the United States on July 15, 2020, serves to reignite its ongoing trade feud with China, ahead of the 2020 United States presidential election. KResearch views that the United States has persistently exploited China's sensitive issues, utilizin... Read more

20 Jul 2020

Econ Digest

Effective prevention and control of the COVID-19 pandemic drives 2Q20 China’s economy up by 3.2% YoY…China will resume domestic tourism to support the consumption and employment of more than 28 million people

The Chinese economy reverted to a growth of 3.2 percent YoY in 2Q20, versus the 6.8 percent YoY contraction reported for 1Q20, thanks to the government's effective measures in combating the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, thus allowing economic activity in the country to return to normalcy. Its ind... Read more

17 Jul 2020

Econ Digest

The US revokes Hong Kong’s special status How will the financial, trade, and immigration policies change?

It has been almost two months since tensions between China and the US in regarding to China’s national security law for Hong Kong surfaced, provoking new global geopolitical risks. Recently, President Donald Trump signed an executive order ending preferential treatment for Hong Kong that had existed... Read more

16 Jul 2020

Econ Digest

How much do you know about the Digital Yuan?

China’s digital currency development scheme is often viewed as a tool that can be used by Chinese authorities to reduce the influence of the US dollar (USD), while the COVID-19 pandemic has turned contactless payment systems into a factor that is accelerating the adaption of related parties, promoti... Read more

15 Jul 2020

Econ Digest

The import of rice under AFTA (May 1st-September 30th of each year) helps food processing operators in managing raw materials and controlling production costs

The Ministry of Commerce held a meeting in June 2020 to revise the Announcement of the Ministry of Commerce on the Importing of Rice into the Kingdom of Thailand under the ASEAN Free Trade Agreement B.E. 2553 (2010), aiming to ensure that the import of rice into Thailand properly complies with the A... Read more

14 Jul 2020

Econ Digest

KR-ECI in June 2020 suggests that the perception of households towards living conditions will continue to improve, although the main tasks are to support business sectors and to sustain employment.

KResearch conducted a survey on the living conditions of Thai households in June 2020, at which time the the COVID-19 outbreak in Thailand was continuously improving with no new domestic infection cases reported for months in a row, while the government had relaxed some preventive measures at differ... Read more

13 Jul 2020

Econ Digest

The U.S. opens an anti-dumping investigation into tires imported from Thailand Chinese tire manufacturers in Thailand are the most affected

The COVID-19 pandemic has not only disrupted the production of auto tires in the U.S., but has also led the affected United Steelworkers union to file anti-dumping petitions against imported tires from Thailand, South Korea, Vietnam and Taiwan, due to a significant increase in the importation of aut... Read more

9 Jul 2020

Econ Digest

Household debt in numerous countries begins to rise after the widespread outbreak of covid-19

Although Thailand’s outstanding household debt fell in 1Q20 compared to the previous quarter, the household debt level remains high (80.1% of GDP), as households continue to take on large-sum debts, including loans for house purchases and auto purchases, in line with operators’ marketing campaigns t... Read more