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เศรษฐกิจ

ดูทั้งหมด

1 Nov 2021

International Economy

CPTPP vs RCEP China’s interest in CPTPP membership (Current Issue No.3282)

The Cabinet Meeting on October 12, 2021, discussed the “Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership” (CPTPP). The agreement garnered renewed attention in September after China expressed interest in becoming a member. Taiwan followed suit in submitting its application, while the United Kingdom applied for membership of CPTPP early this year. International stance, particularly that of China, has prompted countries with strong economic and trade relations with China to reconsider joining the CPTPP. ...Read more

30 Oct 2021

International Economy

Fed Expected to Announce its QE Tapering Program at the Upcoming FOMC Meeting, November 2-3, 2021 (Business Brief No.3956)

The upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOM0C) meeting, November 2-3, 2021, is seen as an important policy gathering because the Fed is expected to officially announce its QE tapering program after sending signals that it would begin to do so by the end of 2021 and complete the process by mid-2022. This means that the Fed will likely start to gradually scale back its asset purchases at USD15 billion a month, which comprises the reduction in government bond purchases by USD10 billion a month, from the current purchase amount of USD80 billion a month. Additionally, it will cut its purchases of mortage-backed securities at USD5 billion a month, versus the current purchase limit of USD40 billion a month. As a result, the Fed is expected to complete its USD120-billlion a month QE tapering by mid-2022 as signaled. ...Read more

18 Oct 2021

International Economy

China’s economic growth falls to 4.9% YoY in 3Q21... energy crisis still poses a risk in the final quarter of 2021 (Business Brief No.3953)

China’s economy in 3Q21 faced a wide range of economic issues, whereas China’s stimulus packages remain rather limited. As a result, the country’s economic growth in 3Q21 slowed to 4.9 percent YoY, following year-on-year growth of 18.3 percent in 1Q21 and 7.9 percent in 2Q21. Details are as follows:...Read more

แนวโน้มธุรกิจ

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8 Nov 2021

Tourism

Domestic Travel Set to Recover in 2022 if There is No Severe Resurgence of COVID-19 (Current Issue No.3284)

Thais have been found to begin taking more domestic trips after the government relaxed lockdown restrictions, lifted a ban on inter-provincial travel, bolstered the vaccination rate, and introduced measures, aimed at stimulating domestic travel. A survey on domestic travel demand shows that more than 73.7 percent of the respondents in Bangkok intend to take domestic trips the most. Therefore, if the government can ensure that there is no severe resurgence of COVID-19, this will be a boon for domestic travel during the upcoming high season. ...Read more

3 Nov 2021

Services

Full-Service Restaurant Business Set to Resume Growth of 26.5% in 2022, Thanks to Relaxation of Lockdown Measures (Current Issue No.3283

During 4Q21, the full-service restaurant business is being supported by two factors as part of the government’s relaxation of various lockdown restrictions. They are the lifting of curfew in pilot tourist destinations under its reopening plan, and permission for restaurants to serve alcoholic beverages to customers, who are dining in their premises again under certain conditions, effective November 1, 2021. As a result, consumers are expected to dine out more and spend longer at restaurants. We at KResearch expect that the number of transactions (tables) at restaurants will increase 7 percent during the final two months of 2021, compared to an average figure reported during 10M21. Moreover, a longer dining time per each visit may allow customers to order more foods and alcoholic drinks, and this will likely allow full-service restaurants to earn an additional income of approximately THB2 billion over our prior estimate during the final two months of 2021, bringing the total sales of their foods and alcoholic beverages to roughly THB113 billion during 2021, representing a contraction of 28.5 percent YoY. ...Read more

29 Oct 2021

Agriculture

2021 floods affect in-season rice...crop damage estimated at approximately THB6.3-8.4 billion (Current Issue No.3281)

KResearch has preliminarily assessed that the damage to the rice crop from flooding in September and October 2021 may amount to around THB 6.3-8.4 billion. Due to the effects of recent storms, many provinces in the northeastern, northern and central regions of Thailand are experiencing ongoing floods, which have affected yields of in-season rice; the majority of which has already been planted and is gradually being harvested by farmers. Overall, in-season rice output could face significant losses from widespread flooding and stagnant floodwaters that have remained at high levels for many days in certain areas....Read more

ตลาดการเงินและสถาบันการเงิน

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5 Nov 2021

Financial Markets

The Baht and SET index fluctuated throughout the week

The Baht weakened against the US dollar during the first week of November. The Baht moved in line with foreign fund flows into the Thai stock and bond markets ahead of the FOMC meeting. However, it weakened later along other regional currencies, as the US dollar rebounded on strong US labor market reports, including ADP employment and weekly jobless claims data, after having briefly fallen mid-week on the Fed’s decision to taper QE measure as expected and signal that it can be patient on rate hikes. ...Read more

5 Nov 2021

Financial Institutions

MPC Meeting, November 10, 2021: Policy rate likely to remain unchanged at 0.50% amid many positive economic factors (Business Brief No.3957)

KResearch assesses that the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will keep its policy rate steady at 0.50 percent in the meeting slated for November 10, 2021, in light of positive economic factors that stem from Thailand’s reopening and continuous easing of lockdown measures. These have benefited the recovery of domestic economic activity, ...Read more

29 Oct 2021

Financial Markets

The Baht strengthened, while the SET dropped along with regional stock markets

The Baht moved in a volatile range but strengthened against the US Dollar. The Baht rose early in the week in line with net foreign bond buying orders, while the US Dollar lacked momentum after the US treasury yield slipped below 1.60%. However, the Baht weakened briefly around midweek in line with the Yuan and other Asian currencies amid concerns over fragile signs of Chinese property market before surging again at the end of the week, as the US Dollar was pressured by the weaker-than-expected US GDP report for 3Q21. ...Read more