Oil consumption in 4Q11 has decelerated from the previous quarter due to the widespread and severe flooding. Demand for fuel fell substantially in October when the floodwaters ravaged Bangkok metropolis where there are over 4 million vehicles in use. It is estimated that around 200,000-300,000 vehicles have been parked at private and public locations, including on expressways and bridges, to avoid the deluge. Demand for fuel, however, has picked up since late November after the floodwaters began to recede. Fuel consumption may soon be close to pre-flood levels after various roads become passable and suspended production at industrial estates resumes. In addition, extensive use of water pumps for drainage operation, especially at flooded industrial estates, will result in higher demand for fuel.
As a result, KResearch forecasts that demand for oil nationwide in 4Q11 may drop 3.3 percent QoQ (but may fall 10-15 percent in Greater Bangkok). When compared YoY, demand for fuel in 4Q11 may decline 8 percent.