It is expected that Thai rice prices will increase in 2H17 over those seen in 1H17 due to the psychological effect of gradual declines in domestic rice stocks, meaning that existing rice stockpiles should be completely exhausted within 2017. The uplift will also be driven by increased demand for Thai rice from many countries, including the Philippines, Indonesia, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Iraq, and Iran, because they have been hit by natural disasters and want to ensure food supply security.
It has been projected that prices for white rice paddy will be around THB8,000-8,500/ton during 2H17, while the prices for “Hom Mali” paddy and glutinous rice paddy will climb to THB9,500-10,000/ton and THB10,000-11,000/ton, respectively. However, rice prices overall in 2017 will continue to be lower that those reported for 2016, given currently high rice output.
Looking ahead, once the psychological effect has eased, it is expected that Thai rice prices should be dictated largely by market mechanisms (supply/demand). Thanks to strong demand abroad, there is a likelihood that our rice prices will improve somewhat. Nevertheless, close attention must be paid to the rice outputs in our rivals and trading partners, since they may return to normalcy after some having been adversely affected by natural disasters. Another issue will be the government's plan to promote the cultivation of premium rice breeds in suitable locations to supply niche markets.
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