KResearch expects the mooncake market for 2020 to be valued at an estimated THB800 million, or a contraction of 15.8 percent YoY, as the market has suffered a severe setback from deteriorating purchasing power as a result of COVID-19. This projected fall in market value is attributed to fewer participants in this year's Mid-Autumn Festival and an amount of mooncake purchases which has declined on average.
It is worth noting that the diminished mooncake market affects all producers to varying degrees. Producers that set higher mooncake prices per unit, and which target segments that have been hit particularly hard economically, including tourists and businesses that buy mooncakes as gifts for their clients and businesses associates, are in the risk group that requires a clear action plan (except for ones with regular customers and clients with high purchasing power). Meanwhile, original producers and long-established bakery businesses that offer mooncakes at affordable prices and have relied on regular customers who purchase them for both personal consumption and ceremonial use should be relatively less affected.
KResearch has concluded that many established mooncake producers remain strongly invested and will participate in the festivities as in previous years – to create brand recognition and preserve their existing customer base, while biding their time as the market recovers over the coming years. However, operating under the present market conditions may prove difficult amid challenges from decreased purchasing power and fierce competition due to limited brand loyalty. Thus, producers should devise product development strategies that will set them apart from their competitors and help them to deliver good impressions corresponding to the demands of an increasingly diverse consumer market.