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Industry Outlook Analysis

20 Sep 2019


8M19 Exports Contracted 2.2% while Trade Surplus Continues to Drive up the Baht (Business Brief No.3821)

The slowing global economy, persistent trade war and strong Baht caused Thailand’s outward trade to shrink 2.2 percent p.a. during 8M19. The value of August exports reverted to a contraction of 4.0 percent p.a. However, our industrial exports overall to the US continued to grow, including computers,... Read more

21 Aug 2019


July Thai exports resume growth as gold shipments surge, 3Q19 exports set to rise before the US imposes tariffs on China (Business Brief No.3815)

Surging gold exports for the second consecutive month helped Thai shipments overall to resume growth for the first time in five months in July 2019. The value of July shipments came in at USD21,205 million, increasing 4.28 percent YoY, driven partly by skyrocketing gold exports for the second conse... Read more

22 Jul 2019


1H19 Thai Exports Contracted 2.9%, but Growth Seen in 2H19 on Low Base of 2H18 (Business Brief No.3809)

Skyrocketing gold exports supported Thai shipments to shrink at a slower pace in June 2019. Thailand’s June outward trade reached USD21,409.3 million, representing a contraction for the fourth consecutive month at 2.15 percent YoY. The shrinkage, however, was slower than those reported during the pr... Read more

21 Jun 2019


Thai exports continue to contract in 2Q19 … outbound shipments in 2019 expected to fall flat (Business Brief No.3806)

The trade war between the US and China has had repercussions across the globe and slowed down the international trade. In the first two months of 2Q19, Thai exports continued to contract, with the outbound shipments in May 2019 totaling USD21.018 billion, a drop of 5.79 percent YoY. Hence, Thai expo... Read more

30 May 2019


Thailand Not Added to US Currency Manipulation Watchlist, But at Risk of Trade Pressure (Current Issue No.2998)

The US Department of Treasury issued the report on macroeconomic and foreign exchange policies of the US’ major trade partners on May 28, 2019, which is about a month behind the original schedule. The report does not specifically label any country as a currency manipulator in order to bolster advant... Read more

24 May 2019


Urgent task of the new government Speed up Thai-EU trade agreement (Current Issue No.2997)

Thai exports to major markets are under pressure from the escalating trade war, which is likely to linger through the end of the year. Moreover, Thai exports may lose market share in the European Union (EU) to neighboring ASEAN countries in the near future, if the EU can conclude bilateral trade dea... Read more

22 May 2019


Slowing global economy…. pressures Thai exports in April 2019 to contract 2.6%, while export growth in 2019 may drop below KR original forecast of 2.5-3.5% (Business Brief No.3802)

Slowing global economy pressures Thai exports in April 2019 to contract for a second consecutive month. The outbound shipment of Thai goods in April 2019 totaled USD18,555.6 million, declining 2.57 percent YoY. Consequently, Thai exports in the first four months of 2019 dropped 1.86 percent YoY, a ... Read more

22 Apr 2019


1Q19 Thai Exports Contracted 1.6% on Slowing Global Economy, but Shipments May Revert to Growth in 2H19, Bringing 2019 Export Growth to 3.2% (Business Brief No.3797)

The value of Thai merchandise exports reached USD21.44 billion, shrinking 4.9 percent YoY in March 2019. Given this, Thailand’s outward trade overall contracted 1.6 percent YoY during 1Q19, as expected by KResearch. The major factors attributing to the contraction in March shipments, in particular t... Read more

22 Feb 2019


Thai Exports Contracted 5.65% in January due to Slowing Global Economy, Trade War and High Base of 2018 (Business Brief No.3789)

The slowing global economy, impacts of the US tariff hikes on Chinese imports, a cyclical downturn in electronic products, low global crude oil prices and the high base of 2018 all pressured Thai exports to shrink for the third consecutive month at 5.65 percent YoY in January 2019. Shipments of othe... Read more

12 Feb 2019


Thai exports are losing their share in the global value chain…factors to drag Thai exports in the future (Current Issue No.2964)

Thai exports in 2018 rose 6.7 percent YoY, driven mainly by commodity prices. Nonetheless, Thai export growth was significantly lower than those of our neighboring countries. Traditionally, intermediate goods accounted for a majority of the entire Thai export structure, showing that connectivity wit... Read more

21 Nov 2018


Thai exports turn around in October to rise 8.7%, pushing the whole 2018 growth close to 8% (Business Brief No.3773)

Thai exports in the first 10 months expanded 8.2 percent YoY, driven by favorable expansion of auto products and parts and equipment, in line with steady global economic recovery. In addition, petroleum-related products rose due partly to higher crude oil prices in 2018 when compared to the levels i... Read more

28 Sep 2018


E-Commerce likely to double border trade by 2023 (Current Issue No.2928)

Over the first eight months of 2018, Thailand’s border trade and transit trade were valued at THB922.312 billion, growing 6.5 percent YoY. Although growth was slower than the 9.8-percent pace reported in 2017, KResearch views that the THB-denominated amount of our border trade and transit trade for ... Read more

21 Sep 2018


August Export Value Hit a New Record High of USD22.8 Billion while the US-China Trade Spat Begins to Have a Clearer Impact on Thai Shipments (Business Brief No.3761)

The value of Thailand’s outward trade reached THB22.794 billion for August, representing a new record high. However, the August export growth grew at a slower pace at 6.7 percent YoY, due partly to a high 2017 base and 66.6 percent contraction in gold shipments. If the value of gold exports was e... Read more

22 Aug 2018


July Exports to the US contracted for the first time in 21 Month Amid Protracted US-China Trade Dispute (Business Brief No.3757)

Thai outbound shipments to the US and China, however, slowed in July 2018 amid an ongoing trade war between the US and China. The value of Thai exports to the US contracted for the first time in 21 months at 1.9 percent YoY due to a decline in exports of machinery, electronic parts, instant noodles ... Read more

20 Jul 2018


Thai exports in 1H18 rise 11%...and are expected to grow 8.8 % in 2018, with limited impact from the ongoing trade war this year (Business Brief No.3752)

Overall, Thai outbound shipments in 1H18 rose 11.0 percent over year. The growth is attributed mainly to the sustained momentum of economic recovery and the cyclical uptrend of electronic products, which are also expected to drive Thai exports in 2H18. The expansion rate in 2H18 however is expected... Read more

23 Apr 2018


2018 Exports Likely Grow 7% after 1Q18 Shipments hit a 7-year high of 11.3% (Business Brief No.3737)

Thailand’s merchandise exports reached USD22.363 billion for March 2018, representing a fresh record high. As a result, our 1Q18 shipments hit a 7-year high of 11.3 percent YoY. Despite a high 2017 base, the value of March exports was driven by steady economic growth seen in our trade partners, favo... Read more

21 Mar 2018


High Export Growth in February despite High 2017 Base Record-breaking 41% Growth to Japan (Business Brief No.3733)

- Despite a high 2017 base of comparison, February exports continued to expand for the 12th month Thailand’s international trade data for February 2018 indicated a scenario of strong and continued recovery in foreign demand. Despite the high 2017 base because the 2018 Chinese New Year fell in Feb... Read more

21 Feb 2018


1Q18 Shipments to Expand at least 10% on Surprising Growth in January Exports (Business Brief No.3728)

Contrary to the past 5-6 years when the value of January exports tended to fall over-month, January shipments in 2018 posted better-t... Read more

22 Jan 2018


Export in 1Q18 slowing due to 2017 base effect after surging 11.7% in 4Q17 (Business Brief No.3723)

Thailand saw a trade deficit in December 2017 for the second time in the year (after one in July 2017) due to higher than expected imports that had... Read more

9 Jan 2018


Delayed GSP Renewal has Limited Impact on Thai Exports to US (Current Issue No. 2894 Full Ed.)

Over recent years, Thai exports to the US have been relatively competitive, thanks to the US Generalized System of Preferences (GSP). Howeve... Read more

22 Dec 2017


Recovering Global Economy to Lift 2018 Thai Export Growth to 4.5% (Business Brief No.3720 Full Ed.)

Thailand's outward trade grew steadily for the ninth consecutive month in November, thus sending 11M17 export performance to 10.0 percent... Read more

22 Nov 2017


Thai Export Strength Continues to the Yearend, Raising 2017 Export Growth to 9% (Business Brief No.3714 Full Ed.)

Thai export value in the first month of 4Q17 (October) continues to show bullish signs. - Exports related to oil prices continued to rise,... Read more

20 Nov 2017


New Era in Bilateral Trade Negotiations with US to Transform Thai Trade Strategies (Current Issue No. 2881 Full Ed.)

Bilateral trade negotiations with the US are ushering in a new era following President Trump's historic visit to Asia, November 5-14,... Read more