Confidence in the private sector (household, business and industrial) has gradually risen over the past 2-3 months. This indicates that many economic activities may have bottomed out somewhat, though the overall economic and business environment remains subdued.
Meanwhile, October domestic spending has begun to improve in tandem with accelerated public spending (since FY2016), private consumption and investment, helping offset declines in exports, plus industrial and agricultural output, somewhat.
Given this, we at KResearch have assessed that the Thai economy should be able to sustain QoQ growth during 4Q15 almost at a par with 3Q15 at 1.0 percent growth QoQ because the private sector is being supported by accelerated government spending and economic stimuli. This momentum will likely last into 2016. Due to a high 4Q14 base, the Thai economy may grow only 2.7 percent YoY over 4Q15, however.
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