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Economic Analysis

13 Mar 2020

Thai Economy

WHO upgrades COVID-19 to global pandemic; effects to be felt in Thai exports (Current Issue No.3091)

The outbreak of the Corona Virus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) has spread across the world to the extent that the World Health Organization (WHO) has raised its status to that of a pandemic, which has caused the global market to decline even further. This has generated even greater risk for Thai businesse... Read more

12 Mar 2020

Thai Economy

Deflation Foreseen in 2020 if Global Crude Oil Prices Continue to Plummet (Business Brief No.3854)

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and key non-OPEC allies (collectively known as OPEC+) failed to reach an agreement to trim their oil production by another 1.5 million barrels per day (bpd) on March 6, 2020 after non-OPEC refused to support OPEC’s deeper production cuts. ... Read more

7 Feb 2020

Thai Economy

Thais adjust their behavior to cope with novel coronavirus outbreak, weighing in medical treatment or vaccination in their decision to resume their normal lifestyle (Current Issue No.3082)

A recent survey conducted by KResearch shows that a majority of the respondents or 66 percent of them were worried about the novel coronavirus outbreak with the epicentre in China, which has spread to other countries, including Thailand. Thais have hence paid more attention to preventive measures an... Read more

31 Jan 2020

Thai Economy

MPC Meeting, February 5, 2020: Policy Rate Cut Likely Amid New Risks (Business Brief No.3848)

New risks to the Thai economy have been seen. These include the novel coronavirus outbreak, which will likely hurt tourism receipts and a likelihood that the enforcement of the 2020 Budget Act will be delayed, thus preventing the government to use fiscal tools to fully steer the Thai economy. In ad... Read more

30 Jan 2020

International Economy

Novel coronavirus outbreak… causes at least 300 billion Yuan economic impact on 2020 Chinese economy in 1 month (Business Brief No.3847)

The transmission of the 2019 Novel Coronavirus (n-CoV) continues to escalate, prompting the Chinese authorities to take extreme measures to prevent the virus from spreading. For example, they locked down 18 cities in Hubei province by closing off access to the cities and transportation in the provi... Read more

27 Jan 2020

International Economy

Fed May Keep Policy Rate Unchanged in 1Q20, But Additional Rat Cuts Likely Prior to Presidential Election in November 2020 (Business Brief No.3846)

We at KResearch view that improving signs seen in the US economy overall will continue to provide the Fed room to keep its policy rate steady at least until 1Q20. However, the US manufacturing sector has not substantially recovery despite the signing of the first phase of a broader trade pact betwee... Read more

22 Jan 2020

Thai Economy

Escalating PM2.5 problem prompts government to speed up measures to address the problem as people pay attention to health risks (Current Issue No.3076)

The airborne PM2.5 has returned to become a serious issue since the start of 2020. The thickening smog, exceeding the standard safe level, prompted the Cabinet to approve measures to prevent and address the PM2.5 crisis on January 21, 2020. KResearch assessed the economic impacts of PM 2.5 particles... Read more

17 Jan 2020

International Economy

China's economic growth in 2019 records a 29-year low… weak momentum to continue in 2020 (Business Brief No.3844)

China’s economy, in 4Q19, slowed from the previous quarter to grow 6.0 percent YoY, driven by positive factors from the latest development of the US trade conflict with China. The partial agreement was attributed to the turnaround of China’s export and manufacturing sectors in 4Q19 with acceleration... Read more

16 Jan 2020

International Economy

Eyeing US-China Phase 1 Trade Deal…Terms of Trade Pact Will Likely Be Dictated by US Politics (Current Issue No.3072)

The US-China phase 1 trade pact was officially inked on January 15, 2020, lifting hopes that their 2-year tensions could ease. However, the US and China will continue to experience higher tariffs, in particular China, as some of its exports to US are still subject to additional tariffs at the rate o... Read more

13 Jan 2020

Thai Economy

Chinese Year of the Rat 2020: Bangkok Residents to Spend THB13.15 Billion with Focus Placed on Necessities (Current Issue No.3070)

We at KResearch expect that spending by Bangkok residents will reach approximately THB13.15 billion, shrinking 3.0 percent YoY, during the upcoming Chinese New Year. That amount of spending includes THB5.9 billion on votive offerings, THB3.75 billion on traveling and merit making, plus THB3.5 billio... Read more

6 Jan 2020

International Economy

Monetary policy facing constraints… amid a recent jump in oil prices due to mounting US-Iran conflicts (Business Brief No.3842)

The US-Iran tensions have ramped up after General Qasem Soleimani, the Iran’s top commander, was killed in Baghdad on January 3, 2020, shooting up the international benchmark Brent crude on January 6, 2020 by 7 percent as compared to the level registered at the end of 2019. This conflict is being cl... Read more

23 Dec 2019

Thai Economy

2020 Inflation May Remain Steady at 0.7% amid Drought and Rising Daily Minimum Wage (Business Brief No.3839)

We at KResearch expect that average headline inflation may stand at 0.7 percent or within 0.4-0.9 percent in 2020, which would be at the same par as in 2019, amid risks stemming from drought and rising daily minimum wages.... Read more

19 Dec 2019

Thai Economy

New Year 2020: Bangkokians are expected to spend 29.8 billion Baht, most of them apply cautious approach (Current Issue No.3062)

KResearch expects Bangkokians to spend approximately 29.8 billion Baht during the New Year festival 2020, a contraction of 3.2 percent YoY because people want to save their money and become more cautious in their spending. Moreover, some moved up their spending plans to benefit from the stimulus mea... Read more

13 Dec 2019

International Economy

UK Election 2019: Tories’ victory will unlock Brexit hurdle in the short run, but there are other challenges ahead (Current Issue No.3061)

The preliminary result of the UK election on December 12, 2019 shows that Boris Johnson's Conservative party has secured a majority, and he will remain prime minister. Moreover, the Conservative party has gained a comfortable majority, winning 364 seats (of the total 650 seats) in the House of Commo... Read more

9 Dec 2019

International Economy

FOMC Meeting, December 10-11, 2019: Fed Signals to Keep Policy Rate Steady…No End to Interest Rate Cut in Sight (Business Brief No.3836)

KResearch expects that the US Federal Open Market Committee (FOCM) will likely resolve to keep its policy rate unchanged pending an economic assessment while also unveiling its new economic growth and interest rate forecasts at the final meeting of 2019. We expect that the Fed may maintain its 2020... Read more

18 Nov 2019

Thai Economy

Thai Economy, 2019: Growing at Less than Prior Estimate of 2.8% Easing Monetary and Fiscal Policies Needed for 2020 (Business Brief No.3832)

The Thai economic performance remained lackluster in 3Q19 due to a number of factors. These include the anemic global economy, partly as a result of the prolonged trade war, while the strong Baht continued to undermine the pricing competitiveness of Thai exports amid limited growth in public and pri... Read more

12 Nov 2019

Thai Economy

KR-ECI slips in Oct 2019 amid increased households’ concerns over Thai economy

The KR-ECI in October 2019 dropped from 42.3 in September 2019 to 41.8 due to increased concerns of households over their income and employment, spending, savings and domestic product and service prices.... Read more

25 Oct 2019

International Economy

FOMC Meeting, October 29-30, 2019: Fed Funds Rate Likely be Shaved by another 0.25% as Trade War Begins to Hurt Consumption (Business Brief No.3828)

We at KResearch expect that the US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) may cut its policy rate by another 0.25 percent at its meeting scheduled for October 29-30, 2019. Although the Fed resolved to steadily trim its policy rates at the latest two meetings and announced the purchase of short-term tr... Read more

21 Oct 2019

International Economy

3Q19 Chinese Economy Grew at Slower Pace at 6%, Pressuring Government to Introduce New Economic Stimuli (Business Brief No.3826)

The Chinese economy grew 6.0 percent YoY in 3Q19, representing the slowest growth in almost 30 years and declining from the 6.2 percent pace recorded during 2Q19. The disappointing economic performance, which stands at the lower end of China’s growth target, will likely force the government to intro... Read more

11 Oct 2019

Thai Economy

KR-ECI in September 19 edges up, albeit slightly Households show signs of adjusting their behavior to match their income limit

The KR-ECI in September 2019 edged up from 41.9 in August 2019 to 42.3 in September due to declining concerns of households over their expenses, savings, debt burden and domestic prices. Nonetheless, they are more worried about their income and employment. This change shows that households have adju... Read more

9 Oct 2019

International Economy

Vietnam’s Automotive Industry is Thriving despite over 46% of Cars Imported from Thailand (Current Issue No.3038)

Vietnam’s automotive industry is set to grow substantially over the next 5-7 years and this will likely attract additional investments in its car production. Although Vietnam is far behind other ASEAN member states in many aspects, in particular its car production, KResearch views that its car produ... Read more

9 Oct 2019

Thai Economy

Households View that Phase 1 of “Chim Shop Chai” Program Helps Reduce Cost of Living, but More Assistance Measures Needed (Business Brief No.3824)

The Cabinet, September 10, 2019, approved the 1,000-Baht cash handout as part of the government’s “Chim Shop Chai (Taste Shop Use)” program to stimulate domestic tourism, effective September 27 - November 30, 2019. Currently, a large number of people has begun to spend the cash giveaway in provinces... Read more

1 Oct 2019

Thai Economy

2Q19 Household Debt to GDP Remained Static at 78.7% with Debt Growing Faster than the Economy (Business Brief No.3823)

Outstanding household debt grew at a slower pace of 5.8 percent YoY in 2Q19 after hitting a four- year high of 6.3 percent YoY reported for 1Q19 due partly to the slowdown in home loans following the enforcement of LTV measure in April 2019. Personal home loans (extended by commercial banks, special... Read more

30 Sep 2019

Thai Economy

Toxic dust particles are back in Greater Bangkok: Opportunity cost from health-related issues is estimated at THB700-800 million during the 1 -2 week period (Current Issue No.3036)

Toxic smog is back as dust particles exceeding the so-called safe level have blanketed Bangkok and its perimeter. It is a result of stagnate weather. Nonetheless, the recurrence of hazardous smog in the capital this time prompts more concerns as it seems to be more severe than the haze early this ye... Read more

24 Sep 2019

Thai Economy

Spending on Kin Jae 2019 in BKK expected at THB4.76 billion; economy prompts people to curb spending (Current Issue No.3034)

The annual Kin Jae festival is helping feed Bangkok residents’ growing appetite for vegetarian food, with the participating population rising from 57.1 percent to 66.7 percent this year, reflecting a trend towards healthier lifestyles among the new generation. People are also eating less frequently ... Read more

20 Sep 2019

International Economy

China’s Central Bank (PBOC) plans for its own digital currency to counter dollar dominance and money laundering (Business Brief No.3820)

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) has announced a plan to release its own central bank digital currency (CBDC) with an aim to increase the role of the Chinese Yuan on the world market and to combat money laundering. The new currency will be retail CBDC that Chinese can use in lieu of cash. It will ... Read more

16 Sep 2019

International Economy

High Global Crude Oil Prices following Saudi Oil Attacks May Bolster 2019 Inflation by 0.3% (Business Brief No.3818)

Drone attacks on Saudi Arabia’s two major oil refineries on Saturday, September 14, 2019 have driven up Brent crude oil price in the futures market by almost 12 percent. The incident has sparked fears among investors worldwide over oil supply disruption because Saudi Arabia is the world’s largest oi... Read more

16 Sep 2019

International Economy

The Fed meeting on Sept 17-18, 2019 is expected to slash policy rates: Keep a close watch on the Fed’s new policy direction (Business Brief No.3817)

KResearch expects the US Federal Reserve to cut rates by a quarter of a percentage point from 2.00-2.25 percent to 1.75-2.00 percent during the Federal Market Open Committee (FOMC)’s meeting on September 17-18, 2019. The key US economic indicators, especially manufacturing output and employment, con... Read more

9 Sep 2019

Thai Economy

August KR-ECI Increased Slightly, Thanks to Ebbing Energy Costs, Rising Farm Income and Government Measures

The KR-ECI came in at 41.9 for August, increasing slightly over 41.5 reported in July because Thai households were less concerned about domestic goods and service prices amid falling energy costs. The rise was also attributable to the fact that some households were less anxious about income and empl... Read more

5 Sep 2019

International Economy

Renewed Trade War Forces Companies to Move Production Out of China…Thailand’s Potential to Lure New Investments May Be Limited (Current Issue No.3028)

The intensifying US-China trade dispute in terms of the value of goods subject to their import tariffs and magnitude of their import tariff hikes may shave Thai exports by approximately USD3 billion in 2019, against the USD2.4 billion projected before. ... Read more

20 Aug 2019

Thai Economy

Thai GDP growth in 2019 may slide below initial projections of 3.1%, while external risk factors may prompt the government to implement more stimulus to boost growth (Business Brief No.3814)

Thai GDP growth in 2019 may slide below initial projections of 3.1%, while external risk factors may prompt the government to implement more stimulus to boost growth (Business Brief No.3814)... Read more

15 Aug 2019

International Economy

Inversion of the US treasury yield signals risks that the US economy may be heading for recession (Current Issue No.3022)

The inverted yield curve -- where the US 2-year note yield has risen above the benchmark 10-year yield for the first time 12 years – is fueling fears that the global economy may be heading for recession in the next 12 months. This is because the inverted yield curve is an indicator which has correct... Read more

8 Aug 2019

Thai Economy

Household Concerns on Thai Economy pull KR-ECI for July 19 to 66-month low

The KR-ECI slipped for the second month in a row from 43.1 in June to 41.5 in July 2019, which is the lowest level in 66 months, owing to household concerns on all economic aspects, particularly the issues of income and employment, expenses and debt burdens.... Read more

7 Aug 2019

International Economy

From trade war to currency war… Thai authorities must be prepared (Current Issue No.3016)

The People's Bank of China allowed its currency to fall below 7 Yuan to the US Dollar for the first time in 11 years after the US announced last week that it would slap a 10 percent tariff on USD300 billion of Chinese goods. The latest move by Beijing signals its readiness to retaliate against the U... Read more

6 Aug 2019

International Economy

US Labeling of China as “Currency Manipulator” Sends Regional Currencies Reeling (Current Issue No.3034)

The trade war between the US and China has spread to a battle over currencies. Previously, their conflicts were limited to tariffs and international trade. Recently, the US Treasury Department accused China of “manipulating its currency”, representing a more aggressive move after China let the Yuan ... Read more

2 Aug 2019

International Economy

US decision to impose tariff on additional Chinese goods…Damage to Thailand increases to USD2.4 billion (Current Issue No.3013)

US President Donald Trump eventually announced an additional 10 percent tariff on the remaining USD300 billion of Chinese imports, effective September 1, 2019, due mainly to the slow progress in the trade talks. In particular, Beijing is bargaining for conditions which are difficult to be achievable... Read more

1 Aug 2019

International Economy

Fed Lowers Policy Rate, But the Baht Weakens Against the Greenback (Current Issue No.3012)

As expected, the Federal Reserve (Fed) slashed its policy rate for the first time in over 10 years to a range of 2.00-2.25 percent at its meeting, July 30-31, 2019. However, no signs of another policy rate cut have been seen from the Fed Chair. The outcome of the latest FOMC meeting has disappoint... Read more

25 Jul 2019

International Economy

Fed meeting on July 30-31, 2019 is expected to cut interest rate to sustain the US economic recovery (Business Brief No.3811)

KResearch expects the US Federal Reserve to cut the interest rates by 0.25 percent percentage point from 2.25-2.50 percent to 2.00-2.25 percent. Moreover, the Fed is likely to announce to end the balance sheet reduction before the initial schedule to ensure the continuity of the US economic expansio... Read more

17 Jul 2019

International Economy

Chinese economy in 2Q19 registers slowest growth rate in 27 years (Business Brief No.3808)

China's economic growth in 2Q19 grew at 6.2 percent, the slowest growth rate in 27 years and down from 6.4 percent in 1Q19. Consequently, China’s gross domestic product in 1H19 rose only 6.3 percent. The slump is a result of a fall in the global and domestic demands. Moreover, the prolonged trade wa... Read more

12 Jul 2019

Thai Economy

KR-ECI Fell in June Thai Households Tighten Spending …Challenge for New Government

The KR-ECI and 3-month Expected KR-ECI slipped to 43.1 and 44.9 in June because Thai households were more concerned about economic conditions and their cost of living now and in the future, in particular domestic prices of goods, expenses (excluding debt), income and employment. ... Read more

28 Jun 2019

International Economy

G20 Summit: Hopes to End Trade War May Fade Away (Business Brief No.3004)

All eyes are on the G20 Summit, in particular a talk between the US and China, the world’s superpowers, to end the trade war that will last for a year in July 2019. Looking back, it is believed that the US and China knew that they would not benefit from the persistent trade war. A clear consequence ... Read more

26 Jun 2019

International Economy

Thailand as the ASEAN Chair is pushing the conclusion of RCEP… to reboot the multilateral free trade system (Current Issue No.3001)

The ASEAN Summit 2019 ended with members agreeing to conclude the talks for the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) framework by 2019. Thailand should take this opportunity as the ASEAN Chair to act as the facilitator to bridge the differences among members to push for the success of ... Read more

13 Jun 2019

Thai Economy

2019 Mid-Year Economic Stimuli, aimed at Promoting Domestic Spending, Helped Push KR-ECI Up Slightly in May 2019

The KR-ECI increased slightly to 43.7 in May 2019 over the reading of 43.5 reported for April 2019, thanks to 2019 mid-year economic stimuli that directly and indirectly helped ease the high cost of living of Thai households somewhat. In addition, some households were less anxious about debt because... Read more

21 May 2019

Thai Economy

2019 Thai Economy May Grow Lower-than-Expected at 3.7% due to Numerous Challenges Foreseen in 2H19 (Business Brief No.3801)

The Thai economy grew at the slowest pace in 17 quarters of 2.8 percent p.a. in 1Q19, lower than the consensus estimate at 3.2 percent, dampened by shrinking exports amid a steady slowdown in the global economy and impacts of the trade war. However, domestic spending and private investment overall c... Read more

13 May 2019

Thai Economy

KR-ECI Declined in April 2019 as Many Factors Affected Living Conditions of Thai Households

The KR-ECI and 3-month Expected KR-ECI slipped to 43.5 and 45.7 in April 2019 because households were more concerned about their living conditions, including income, employment, prices of goods and services, expenditures and debt. ... Read more

8 May 2019

Thai Economy

Survey on Economic Confidence after General Election Shows that Most Thais Do Not Change their Views on Thai Economy (Current Issue No.2989)

KResearch conducted a survey on the confidence of Thai households and entrepreneurs towards the Thai economy before and after the 2019 general election on March 25 and April 3, 2019. The poll shows that Thai households and entrepreneurs surveyed have changed their views towards the Thai economy afte... Read more

7 May 2019

Thai Economy

Parents in Bangkok Metropolitan Area are expected to spend around THB28.2 billion to get their children ready for school year 2019 (Current Issue No.2986)

During the back-to-school season, consumers with school-age children normally have higher expenditures associated with their children’s education. KResearch’s survey finds that over 54.2 percent of parents are concerned about the amount of their cash flow to spend during the 2019 semester; however, ... Read more

7 May 2019

International Economy

US-China trade war escalates…the US threat to hike tariffs on Chinese goods to 25 percent disrupts Thai trade outlook again (Current Issue No.2988)

The trade talks between the US and China last week did not produce a satisfactory outcome either side. Moreover, the US President Donald Trump announced plans to further raise tariffs on USD200 billion of Chinese goods from 10 to 25 percent starting Friday, May 10. The latest move puts greater press... Read more

29 Apr 2019

International Economy

Expected slowing US economy amid weaker-than-target inflation may signal a halt in Fed interest rate increase (Business Brief No.3799)

KResearch expects the Federal Reserve to maintain the policy rate at 2.25-2.50 percent during the Federal Open Market Committee meeting on April 30-May 1, 2019. The Fed’s hint at easing monetary policy will sustain the US economic growth in the remainder of this year. During 2Q19 and 3Q19, the US e... Read more

17 Apr 2019

International Economy

Chinese economy is likely to enjoy the highest growth at 6.4% YoY in 1Q19 before decelerating in the remainder of this year (Business Brief No.3796)

Chinese economy in 1Q19 expanded 6.4 percent YoY compared to 6.6 percent growth in 2018, while exports increased only 1.0 percent YoY versus 9.9 percent in 2018. Nonetheless, the government’s stimulus policy has begun to bear fruit to support the growth momentum of the Chinese economy. The Chinese... Read more

12 Apr 2019

Thai Economy

Increased spending before the election boosts income of trading households KR-ECI up slightly in March 2019

KResearch views that issues that must be monitored closely in 2019. These include drought, which has arrived early and is expected to last longer than the previous year, because it will affect farm income and the cost of living of households resulting from higher raw food prices. Another issue is th... Read more

3 Apr 2019

Thai Economy

Songkran 2019: Spending in BKK to reach THB25 billion Hot weather affects spending lifestyle of each generation (Current Issue No.2976)

KResearch projects that during the Songkran Festival in 2019, Bangkokians will spend THB25 billion, up 3.6 percent from the previous year. Of the total, THB9.6 billion will be spent on party supplies (food and beverages), THB6.65 billion on accommodation/travel, THB4.6 billion on shopping, THB2.05 b... Read more

15 Mar 2019

International Economy

Slowing US economic indicators prompt the Fed to hint at only one rate hike in 2019 (Business Brief No.3792)

KResearch expects the US Federal Reserve (Fed) to keep the policy rates unchanged at 2.25-2.50 percent during the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on March 19-20, 2019. High external risk, slowing US economic activities and lower US inflation will prompt the Fed to hint at only one rate ... Read more

14 Mar 2019

Thai Economy

February KR-ECI Edged Up because Households Were Less Worried about Spending, Reflecting Gradual Recovery in Private Consumption

KResearch views that issues that must be monitored closely in 2019. These include drought, which has arrived early and is expected to last longer than the previous year, because it will affect farm income and the cost of living of households resulting from higher raw food prices. Another issue is th... Read more

12 Mar 2019

International Economy

Fate of Brexit: Will the UK Find Solutions before the Deadline? (Current Issue No.2973)

After British Prime Minister Theresa May sustained a parliamentary defeat as MPs rejected her Brexit plan on January 15, 2019, the UK parliament is scheduled to vote on her revised withdrawal agreement again on March 12, 2019, being the second meaningful vote on whether to leave the EU without a dea... Read more

5 Mar 2019

International Economy

All eyes on Fed meeting, imminent US/China trade deal, and domestic factors which may impact the Baht in the short (Current Issue No.2971)

The Thai Baht weakened from late February to early March, 2019 after hitting a five-year record high of THB31.07 per Dollar. The Baht traded within a range of THB31.80-THB31.85 per Dollar (as of March 5, 2019) amid varied pressures, namely domestic factors and US Dollar short-covering from many mark... Read more

18 Feb 2019

Thai Economy

Thailand Reported 3.7% GDP Growth in 4Q18 due to Easing External Risks 2019 Economic Growth Projected at 4.0% (Business Brief No.3788)

The Thai economy grew 3.7 percent YoY in 4Q18, increasing over that reported for 3Q18, thanks to easing external risks and continuing growth seen in domestic spending. The trade war continued to cause 4Q18 exports to expand at a slower pace from 3Q18. Many Asian economies were also affected by the t... Read more

13 Feb 2019

International Economy

EPA, Effective February 1, 2019, to Bolster Thai Eco/Hybrid and Parts Exports Ahead (Current Issue No.2966)

From February 1, 2019 onward, Japan’s car and auto-parts exports to the EU will enjoy gradual cuts in import tariffs under the EU-Japan Economic Partnership Agreement (EPA). KResearch views that since the EU will likely have to import more vehicles and auto-parts from Japan, Japanese carmakers may n... Read more

12 Feb 2019

Thai Economy

Economic Costs of Bangkok’s Dust Pollution Revised Upward to THB14.5 Billion (Current Issue No.2965)

The level of ultrafine dust particles exceeding safety standards in Greater Bangkok is expected to prolong until March 2019. Given this, KResearch has revised our forecast of its effect on the Thai economy in terms of opportunity costs incurred from health and tourism related issues, as well as othe... Read more

28 Jan 2019

International Economy

FED is likely to keep interest rates unchanged during its first meeting in 2019... while continuing a cautionary monetary policy in line with future economic directions. (Business Brief No.3773)

KResearch expects the Federal Reserve to keep the policy rate unchanged at 2.25-2.50 percent during its first policymaking meeting of the year from January 29-30, 2019. Although the US economy has shown signs of solid growth, risks associated with global economic uncertainty may prompt the US centra... Read more

24 Jan 2019

International Economy

EU’s Removal of “Yellow Card” Warning Improves Thai Fishing Industry’s Image…2019 Seafood Exports to EU Projected to Grow 0.0-2.0% Current Issue No.2958)

On January 8, 2019, the European Union (EU) announced to lift the so-called “Yellow Card” or warning on Thailand for our substantial progress in tackling illegal, unreported and unregulated (IUU) fishing. Although the removal helps improve the image of Thai seafood products, such exports the EU wil... Read more

22 Jan 2019

International Economy

China’s 2018 Economy Growth Hit 28-Year Low, with Heightened Risk Seen in 2019 (Business Brief No.3782)

China’s economy grew 6.6 percent in 2018, declining substantially from the 6.8 percent pace recorded in 2017. Its economy has weakened steadily, especially during 4Q18 to 6.4 percent, representing the lowest growth in 28 years. The sharp decline in 4Q18 economic performance was attributable chiefly ... Read more

16 Jan 2019

International Economy

Uncertainty persists after the UK parliament’s rejection of Theresa May’s Brexit Plan (Current Issue No.2956)

The UK parliament voted to reject the Brexit deal presented by Prime Minister Theresa May on January 14, 2019 with 432 rejecting votes and only 202 approving votes. The result marks the heaviest parliamentary defeat of a British prime minister in history. The vote results show that members of the U... Read more

16 Jan 2019

International Economy

Japan overtakes Thailand to take 3rd position in CLMV-EPI Index, with focus on service investment in CLM (CLMV-EPI)

Thailand experienced the first time of its KR CLMV Economic Presence (CLMV-EPI) Index not being among the top three ranking since the fourth quarter of 2017, replaced by Japan at the third position as affirmed by its increasing role as a large investor in CLMV. Change in Japan’s direct investment in... Read more

15 Jan 2019

Thai Economy

Economic Costs of Bangkok Air Pollution Preliminarily Estimated to be at Least THB2.6 Billion (Current Issue No.2955)

Greater Bangkok was last hit by the high level of hazardous dust particles at the end of 2017 through to the beginning of 2018. Air pollution blanketed capital again in January 2019, with the prospect of prolonged unhealthy air quality levels . This problem and the impacts of global warming or clima... Read more

11 Jan 2019

Thai Economy

KR-ECI Increased for 3 Straight Months in December 2018 Thai Households Enjoyed more Income amid Ebbing Cost of Living

• The KR-ECI conducted nationwide rose to 46.0 percent in December 2018 because some Thai households got extra income while the cost of living was declining in line with raw food prices and energy costs. • The 3-month Expected KR-ECI also increased to 47.6 in December because households spent les... Read more

20 Dec 2018

Thai Economy

2019 inflation will likely slow to 0.8% Shaped by weather conditions, energy and utility prices (Business Brief No.3778)

KResearch maintains our estimate of Headline Inflation in 2018 at 1.1 percent, compared to the 0.7-percent pace of 2017, as a result of rising energy prices and housing rents amid contracting prices of fresh food following a large quantity of supplies in the market.... Read more

14 Dec 2018

International Economy

FOMC Meeting, December 18-19, 2018: Policy Rate Hike likely while Fed’s 2019 Monetary Policy Stand Hinges on Economic Conditions (Business Brief No.3776)

We at KResearch view that the US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will likely raise its policy rate by another 0.25 percent to 2.25-2.50 percent over the current 2.00-2.25 percent at its final meeting of 2018 as it marches toward a more normal policy stance, given that the US economy has outperf... Read more

12 Dec 2018

Thai Economy

KR-ECI Up in November due to Ebbing Energy Prices

The KR-ECI and 3-month Expected KR-ECI improved in November due to ebbing energy prices and new government measures, aimed at assisting low-income earners and farmers. The KR-ECI rose to 45.7 in November over 45.3 reported for October and the 3-month Expected KR-ECI (December 2018-February 2019) cam... Read more

3 Dec 2018

International Economy

US-China trade truce to suspend imposing tariffs for 90 days eases short-term tension but impact on Thailand lingers (Current Issue No.2943)

On the sidelines of the G20 meetings in Buenos Aires, Argentina on December 1, 2018, US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping struck a temporary truce, agreeing not to increase punitive tariffs for 90 days after the G20 meetings to pave the way for negotiations to end the trade wa... Read more

19 Nov 2018

International Economy

Trade war may trigger more investment outflows from China but its benefits on Thailand will be limited to certain industries (Current Issue No.2939)

Uncertainties associated with the trade war between Washington and Beijing may prompt investors to manage their business risks by diversifying their investments from China to countries not directly affected by the trade battle. Nonetheless, direct benefits for Thailand will be limited because Thaila... Read more

19 Nov 2018

Thai Economy

3Q18 GDP growth: Lower-than-expected and lowest in 2018 due to external economic factors (Business Brief No.3772)

The Thai economy in the third quarter of 2018 expanded 3.3 percent YoY, which is the lowest recorded growth rate of this year and also lower than the market expectation of 4.1-percent growth due mainly to external economic factors. Meanwhile, there were positive signals in domestic consumption, incl... Read more

15 Nov 2018

Thai Economy

Higher Growth Potential of Public Construction in 2019, Buoyed by Mega Projects (Current Issue No.2937)

A number of infrastructure projects have exhibited satisfactory progress after the government’s announcement of an action plan to expedite large infrastructure investments in 2016-2018 with an important impetus being the Eastern Economic Corridor (EEC) program with THB trillions of investment. Compl... Read more

14 Nov 2018

Thai Economy

3-month Expected KR-ECI Improves Households Are Optimistic toward Future Income

​The 3-month Expected KR-ECI edged up slightly to 46.9 in October over 46.5 reported for September. This is because households were more optimistic toward income and employment over the next three months (November 2018 - January 2019) partly as a result of the fact that non-farm households that wi... Read more

7 Nov 2018

International Economy

US Midterm Election Results ... sending only weak economic stimulation amid ongoing trade war (Current Issue No.2935)

At present, the fast-paced business world is fuelled largely by digital disruption. The tourism and hospitality business is one of the industries that has experienced a rapid evolution in the past decade, with Online Travel Agencies (OTAs) emerging to become a force to be reckoned with. The OT... Read more

31 Oct 2018

International Economy

FOMC Meeting, September 7-8: Fed Continues to Signal More Rate Increases…Watch Out for Factors Affecting Rate Hike Timing in 2019 (Business Brief No.3770)

We at KResearch expect that the FOMC will resolve to keep its policy rate intact at 2.00-2.25 percent at the upcoming meeting slated for September 7-8, 2018 before raising the Fed Funds rate by another 0.25 percent at the final meeting of this year. Factors supporting the path of Fed’s monetary poli... Read more

22 Oct 2018

Thai Economy

Thai exports in September 2018 contract 5.2% ... due to factors including bigger impact from the escalated trade war (Business Brief No.3768)

Thai export growth in September 2018 recorded the first drop in 19 months due partly to a sharp decline in gold exports as a result of a high base effect last year and volatility of the gold market. After an exclusion of gold export value, which contracted 78.7 percent YoY, Thai exports shrank sligh... Read more

19 Oct 2018

International Economy

Chinese Economy Slowed in 3Q18 Despite Accelerated Exports and Easing Monetary Policy…Watch Out for Challenges that May Further Hurt Growth in 2019 (Business Brief No.3767)

China’s economic growth slipped to 6.5 percent YoY in 3Q18, representing a record low since 2009. The decelerated growth was attributable to steady drop in its industrial production amid the country’s trade dispute, which is expected to escalate ahead, plus persistent sluggishness seen in household ... Read more

10 Oct 2018

International Economy

Fed rate, oil prices and regional currencies are 3 factors weakening Thai Baht late this year (Current Issue No.2931)

It is apparent that the Thai currency and the Thai government bond yields - especially the long-term bond yields - have begun to ostensibly “swing” in the last quarter of the year. The Thai Baht weakened to touch THB33.10 against the greenback on October 9 (when the net sales of equities and bonds b... Read more

5 Oct 2018

Thai Economy

2019 Inflation Projected to Increase by 0.7-1.1% Amid Surging Global Crude Oil Prices, Though the Figure Will Depend on Government Policy of Supervising Energy (Current Issue No.2930)

2019 Inflation Projected to Increase by 0.7-1.1% Amid Surging Global Crude Oil Prices, Though the Figure Will Depend on Government Policy of Supervising Energy (Current Issue No.2930)... Read more

21 Sep 2018

Thai Economy

2018 Kin Jae festival is expected to generate THB4.65 billion in BKK with healthy diet being the main reason to attract customers (Current Issue No.2927)

Kin Jae (vegetarian) is one of the main festivals that food and beverages suppliers and distributors, including fine restaurants, street food vendors, convenience stores and online operators, have paid attention as this annual event is one of the best periods to boost their sales and expand their cu... Read more

21 Sep 2018

International Economy

Fed Meeting, Sep 25-26 ... Expected Rate Increase of 0.25% ... Intensified Trade Conflicts to be Watched (Business Brief No.3760)

KResearch expects the Federal Reserve (Fed) will raise the policy interest rate by 0.25 percent from 1.75-2.00 percent to 2.00-2.25 percent in its meeting slated for September 25-26, 2018. The Fed will also likely announce an increase in its balance sheet normalization process to the maximu... Read more

20 Aug 2018

Thai Economy

1H18 Economy Recorded Surprising Growth, Aided by Domestic Spending … 2018 GDP Projected to Expand at Least 4.5% (Business Brief No.3756)

The Thai economy grew at an average of 4.8 percent p.a. during 1H18, supported by steady GDP growth of 4.6 percent p.a. in 2Q18. Domestic spending began to support the Thai economy in addition to exports and tourism amid rising agricultural supplies.... Read more

16 Aug 2018

International Economy

Turkish Currency Crisis…Limited Impacts on Thai Financial Sector (Current Issue No. 2924)

Financial markets worldwide are keeping close watch on possible risks and impacts that may be caused by the Turkish Lira crisis. Although the Lira has picked up somewhat (after hitting a historical low at 7.2362/USD on August 13), it will likely face many sell-offs ahead amid limited tools/resource... Read more

15 Aug 2018

International Economy

Closely watch Turkish currency crisis … Lira meltdown can put Eurozone economies at risk (Current Issue No. 2923)

In 2018, the Turkish economy is facing pressures from all sides amid risks threatening its economic stability such as the Federal Reserve interest rate hike, which accelerates fund outflows and continuously and quickly increases borrowing costs. An increasing oil price and weaker Turkish lira have c... Read more

10 Aug 2018

Thai Economy

KR-ECI in July edges up for the first time in 6 months in anticipation of better income and job opportunities

KR-ECI in July 2018 edged up for the first time in 6 months from 44.7 in June to 45.1 due to household anticipation of better income and employment, in addition to their easing concerns about prices of products and services in the country. The 3-month Expected KR-ECI slip... Read more

26 Jul 2018

International Economy

FED is likely to maintain the interest rate at 1.75-2.00% at its meeting on July 31-August 1, 18...close attention to trade dispute (Business Brief No.3754)

KResearch expects the Federal Reserve (Fed) to hold the policy rates steady at 1.75-2.00 percent during the fifth round of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting this year. The risk factor - that may disrupt the path of the US economic recovery in the remainder of this year - is still the ... Read more

26 Jul 2018

International Economy

Trade War Likely to be Prolonged in 2019 … Possibly Affecting Thai Exports at 0.5%-0.6% of GDP (Current Issue No. 2922)

In 2018, the trade war provoked by the US may not produce significant repercussions on Thailand, given that the measures to impose new tariffs on solar panels, large washing machines, iron and aluminum since the beginning of the year has not involved considerable value. Despite, the first round of n... Read more

19 Jul 2018

International Economy

A Record-Low Yuan May Pressure Other Asian Currencies (Current Issue No. 2920)

From the beginning of 2018 to July 19, the Yuan weakened by more than 3.5 percent against the US Dollar, representing a new record low of CNY6.73/USD. Factors contributing to a rapid softening of the Yuan over the past few months include heightened risks stemming from the US-China trade war, which h... Read more

17 Jul 2018

International Economy

China achieved 6.7% economic growth in 2Q18…with challenge of long-term stability given prolonged trade disputes (Business Brief No.3751)

While China’s government policies have constrained growth in some economic sectors, its GDP report for 2Q18 indicated ongoing growth overall, reaching 6.7 percent YoY compared to the 6.8-percent pace reported for 1Q18. Considering growth components, the factors pressuring economic growth include the... Read more

6 Jul 2018

Thai Economy

Thailand’s External Stability Remains Solid to Brace for Volatility of Capital Outflows … Eyeing Heightened Volatility from Trade War (Current Issue No. 2918)

Looking ahead, close attention must be paid to the ongoing trade war. If it persists beyond 2018, our real economic sector could be undermined over the next 2-4 years. Moreover, due to the cyclical upturn in interest rates, concerns may shift toward internal stability, in particular when Thailand is... Read more

29 Jun 2018

Thai Economy

Thai Household Debt Rose 5.2% YoY in 1Q18 In line with increasing retail lending of commercial banks (Business Brief No.3750)

According to Bank of Thailand data on household borrowing in 1Q18, the ratio of household debt to GDP dropped from 78.0 percent in 4Q17 to 77.6 percent (while the seasonally adjusted figure stood at 77.7 percent). However, the outstanding household debt in 1Q18 stepped up to THB12.17 billion, or 5.2... Read more

12 Jun 2018

Thai Economy

KR-ECI Declined in May due to Rising Cost of Living Driven by Energy Prices But Income and Employment Improved

The KR-ECI and 3-month Expected KR-ECI slipped to 44.9 and 46.2 for May chiefly because of substantial increases in the domestic prices of goods and services, in particular energy. Household income and employment, however, improved, due in part to continuing recovery in the Thai economy and higher f... Read more

11 Jun 2018

International Economy

Fed is expected to raise the policy rate by 0.25% during the meeting on June 12-13 supported by continuing expansion of the US economy (Business Brief No.3746)

KResearch expects the Federal Reserve (Fed) to raise its policy rate by 0.25 percentage points from 1.50-1.75 percent to 1.75-2.00 percent during the fourth round of the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting this year on June 12-13, 2018. A solid expansion of the US economy and the f... Read more

4 Jun 2018

International Economy

New context of Malaysian economy after“2018 poll: Closely watch major shift in economic policy amid fragile economic fundamentals (Current Issue No. 2913)

The economic policies recently announced by newly-elected Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad mark a major shift from those under the ousted Barisan Nasional government, especially the country’s policies on large-scale infrastructure investments. On May 28, 2018, Prime Minister Mahathir announ... Read more

1 Jun 2018

Thai Economy

Inflation accelerated to 1.49% in May given high energy prices 2H18 pace may ease due to last year’s high base of comparison (Business Brief No.3745)

Head line inflation in May 2018 accelerated to 1.49 percent, mainly on the back of domestic energy prices that had risen in line with the uptrend of global crude oil prices to nearly USD80/barrel. If global crude oil prices are within the range of USD70-80/barrel over the remainder of 2018, Thailand... Read more

25 May 2018

International Economy

China begins cutting tariffs to ease trade tensions with the US, but uncertainty lingers (Current Issue No. 2911)

Finally, China and the US have reached a compromise to ease trade tensions. Recently, Beijing announced that it will cut tariffs on imported passenger cars from 25 to 15 percent and auto parts from 10 to 6 percent, effective July 1, 2018. Looking forward, China is set to announce a string of measure... Read more

22 May 2018

Thai Economy

April Exports Post 14th Month of High Growth Full-Year Growth Expected at 8% (Business Brief No.3743)

Thailand’s global trade value in April 2018 dropped into negative territory, with a trade deficit of USD1.283 billion – the highest in 43 months. This was due to an import expansion of 20.4 percent YoY, partly caused by surging oil prices in world markets and accelerated imports of products... Read more

21 May 2018

Thai Economy

1Q18 GDP is likely to register the highest rate of 2018 Growth in the remainder of the year is expected to top 4.0 %

The Thai economy in 1Q18 rose to a record 5-year high at 4.8 percent YoY, driven by booming export and tourism sectors. At the same time, housing spending began to show positive signs, picking up momentum from the previous quarter. Additionally, agricultural production has dramatically increased, be... Read more

15 May 2018

Thai Economy

Digital Asset Law Aimed at Protecting Retail Investors and Promoting Financial Stability (Business Brief No.3741)

The new digital asset law is intended to supervise retail investors and promote roles, as well as responsibilities of related businesses. All sections under the law require companies selling digital token or issuing initial coin offering (ICO) to comply with the SEC rules and regulations, in... Read more

8 May 2018

Thai Economy

Under economic pressure, parents in Bangkok are expected to spend THB27.5 billion during 2018 back-to-school season(Current Issue No. 2910)

KResearch expects that parents in Greater Bangkok will spend around THB27.5 billion during the 2018 school year, up 1.9 percent YoY, showing a decrease in spending growth because the main spending items such as tuition remain unchanged. Additionally, most parents are spending cautiously on education... Read more

4 May 2018

Thai Economy

3-Month Expected KR-ECI Improves on Declining Expenses

The 3-month Expected KR-ECI increased to 46.9 in April 2018 because households expected that their expenditures (excluding debt) would decline over the next three months after the Songkran spending spree and making tuition fee payments for their children.... Read more

4 May 2018

Thai Economy

Number of Middle Eastern Tourist Arrivals to Thailand May Contract in 2018 due to Economic and Competition Factors (Current Issue No. 2909)

KResearch thus expects that the number of Middle Eastern holidaymakers to Thailand will continue to shrink during the remainder of 2018. As a result, the number of Middle Eastern tourist arrivals will reach perhaps 7.58-7.79 million in 2018, shrinking 4.2-1.4 percent, against the 5.7 percent growth ... Read more

27 Apr 2018

International Economy

Fed Policy Rate Expected to Remain at 1.50-.175 in May Meeting…Continued Rise in US Bond Yield to be Monitored (Business Brief No.3739)

KResearch expects the Federal Reserve (Fed) will resolve to maintain its policy interest rate at 1.50-1.75 percent in its third meeting of this year, in awaiting to assess further developments of the US economy and risks arising from trade disputes. Given the US attempts to minimize their trade defi... Read more