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Economic Analysis

25 Oct 2019

International Economy

FOMC Meeting, October 29-30, 2019: Fed Funds Rate Likely be Shaved by another 0.25% as Trade War Begins to Hurt Consumption (Business Brief No.3828)

We at KResearch expect that the US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) may cut its policy rate by another 0.25 percent at its meeting scheduled for October 29-30, 2019. Although the Fed resolved to steadily trim its policy rates at the latest two meetings and announced the purchase of short-term tr... Read more

21 Oct 2019

International Economy

3Q19 Chinese Economy Grew at Slower Pace at 6%, Pressuring Government to Introduce New Economic Stimuli (Business Brief No.3826)

The Chinese economy grew 6.0 percent YoY in 3Q19, representing the slowest growth in almost 30 years and declining from the 6.2 percent pace recorded during 2Q19. The disappointing economic performance, which stands at the lower end of China’s growth target, will likely force the government to intro... Read more

9 Oct 2019

International Economy

Vietnam’s Automotive Industry is Thriving despite over 46% of Cars Imported from Thailand (Current Issue No.3038)

Vietnam’s automotive industry is set to grow substantially over the next 5-7 years and this will likely attract additional investments in its car production. Although Vietnam is far behind other ASEAN member states in many aspects, in particular its car production, KResearch views that its car produ... Read more

9 Oct 2019

Thai Economy

Households View that Phase 1 of “Chim Shop Chai” Program Helps Reduce Cost of Living, but More Assistance Measures Needed (Business Brief No.3824)

The Cabinet, September 10, 2019, approved the 1,000-Baht cash handout as part of the government’s “Chim Shop Chai (Taste Shop Use)” program to stimulate domestic tourism, effective September 27 - November 30, 2019. Currently, a large number of people has begun to spend the cash giveaway in provinces... Read more

1 Oct 2019

Thai Economy

2Q19 Household Debt to GDP Remained Static at 78.7% with Debt Growing Faster than the Economy (Business Brief No.3823)

Outstanding household debt grew at a slower pace of 5.8 percent YoY in 2Q19 after hitting a four- year high of 6.3 percent YoY reported for 1Q19 due partly to the slowdown in home loans following the enforcement of LTV measure in April 2019. Personal home loans (extended by commercial banks, special... Read more

30 Sep 2019

Thai Economy

Toxic dust particles are back in Greater Bangkok: Opportunity cost from health-related issues is estimated at THB700-800 million during the 1 -2 week period (Current Issue No.3036)

Toxic smog is back as dust particles exceeding the so-called safe level have blanketed Bangkok and its perimeter. It is a result of stagnate weather. Nonetheless, the recurrence of hazardous smog in the capital this time prompts more concerns as it seems to be more severe than the haze early this ye... Read more

24 Sep 2019

Thai Economy

Spending on Kin Jae 2019 in BKK expected at THB4.76 billion; economy prompts people to curb spending (Current Issue No.3034)

The annual Kin Jae festival is helping feed Bangkok residents’ growing appetite for vegetarian food, with the participating population rising from 57.1 percent to 66.7 percent this year, reflecting a trend towards healthier lifestyles among the new generation. People are also eating less frequently ... Read more

20 Sep 2019

International Economy

China’s Central Bank (PBOC) plans for its own digital currency to counter dollar dominance and money laundering (Business Brief No.3820)

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) has announced a plan to release its own central bank digital currency (CBDC) with an aim to increase the role of the Chinese Yuan on the world market and to combat money laundering. The new currency will be retail CBDC that Chinese can use in lieu of cash. It will ... Read more

16 Sep 2019

International Economy

High Global Crude Oil Prices following Saudi Oil Attacks May Bolster 2019 Inflation by 0.3% (Business Brief No.3818)

Drone attacks on Saudi Arabia’s two major oil refineries on Saturday, September 14, 2019 have driven up Brent crude oil price in the futures market by almost 12 percent. The incident has sparked fears among investors worldwide over oil supply disruption because Saudi Arabia is the world’s largest oi... Read more

16 Sep 2019

International Economy

The Fed meeting on Sept 17-18, 2019 is expected to slash policy rates: Keep a close watch on the Fed’s new policy direction (Business Brief No.3817)

KResearch expects the US Federal Reserve to cut rates by a quarter of a percentage point from 2.00-2.25 percent to 1.75-2.00 percent during the Federal Market Open Committee (FOMC)’s meeting on September 17-18, 2019. The key US economic indicators, especially manufacturing output and employment, con... Read more

9 Sep 2019

Thai Economy

August KR-ECI Increased Slightly, Thanks to Ebbing Energy Costs, Rising Farm Income and Government Measures

The KR-ECI came in at 41.9 for August, increasing slightly over 41.5 reported in July because Thai households were less concerned about domestic goods and service prices amid falling energy costs. The rise was also attributable to the fact that some households were less anxious about income and empl... Read more

5 Sep 2019

International Economy

Renewed Trade War Forces Companies to Move Production Out of China…Thailand’s Potential to Lure New Investments May Be Limited (Current Issue No.3028)

The intensifying US-China trade dispute in terms of the value of goods subject to their import tariffs and magnitude of their import tariff hikes may shave Thai exports by approximately USD3 billion in 2019, against the USD2.4 billion projected before. ... Read more

20 Aug 2019

Thai Economy

Thai GDP growth in 2019 may slide below initial projections of 3.1%, while external risk factors may prompt the government to implement more stimulus to boost growth (Business Brief No.3814)

Thai GDP growth in 2019 may slide below initial projections of 3.1%, while external risk factors may prompt the government to implement more stimulus to boost growth (Business Brief No.3814)... Read more

15 Aug 2019

International Economy

Inversion of the US treasury yield signals risks that the US economy may be heading for recession (Current Issue No.3022)

The inverted yield curve -- where the US 2-year note yield has risen above the benchmark 10-year yield for the first time 12 years – is fueling fears that the global economy may be heading for recession in the next 12 months. This is because the inverted yield curve is an indicator which has correct... Read more

8 Aug 2019

Thai Economy

Household Concerns on Thai Economy pull KR-ECI for July 19 to 66-month low

The KR-ECI slipped for the second month in a row from 43.1 in June to 41.5 in July 2019, which is the lowest level in 66 months, owing to household concerns on all economic aspects, particularly the issues of income and employment, expenses and debt burdens.... Read more

7 Aug 2019

International Economy

From trade war to currency war… Thai authorities must be prepared (Current Issue No.3016)

The People's Bank of China allowed its currency to fall below 7 Yuan to the US Dollar for the first time in 11 years after the US announced last week that it would slap a 10 percent tariff on USD300 billion of Chinese goods. The latest move by Beijing signals its readiness to retaliate against the U... Read more

6 Aug 2019

International Economy

US Labeling of China as “Currency Manipulator” Sends Regional Currencies Reeling (Current Issue No.3034)

The trade war between the US and China has spread to a battle over currencies. Previously, their conflicts were limited to tariffs and international trade. Recently, the US Treasury Department accused China of “manipulating its currency”, representing a more aggressive move after China let the Yuan ... Read more

2 Aug 2019

International Economy

US decision to impose tariff on additional Chinese goods…Damage to Thailand increases to USD2.4 billion (Current Issue No.3013)

US President Donald Trump eventually announced an additional 10 percent tariff on the remaining USD300 billion of Chinese imports, effective September 1, 2019, due mainly to the slow progress in the trade talks. In particular, Beijing is bargaining for conditions which are difficult to be achievable... Read more

1 Aug 2019

International Economy

Fed Lowers Policy Rate, But the Baht Weakens Against the Greenback (Current Issue No.3012)

As expected, the Federal Reserve (Fed) slashed its policy rate for the first time in over 10 years to a range of 2.00-2.25 percent at its meeting, July 30-31, 2019. However, no signs of another policy rate cut have been seen from the Fed Chair. The outcome of the latest FOMC meeting has disappoint... Read more

25 Jul 2019

International Economy

Fed meeting on July 30-31, 2019 is expected to cut interest rate to sustain the US economic recovery (Business Brief No.3811)

KResearch expects the US Federal Reserve to cut the interest rates by 0.25 percent percentage point from 2.25-2.50 percent to 2.00-2.25 percent. Moreover, the Fed is likely to announce to end the balance sheet reduction before the initial schedule to ensure the continuity of the US economic expansio... Read more

17 Jul 2019

International Economy

Chinese economy in 2Q19 registers slowest growth rate in 27 years (Business Brief No.3808)

China's economic growth in 2Q19 grew at 6.2 percent, the slowest growth rate in 27 years and down from 6.4 percent in 1Q19. Consequently, China’s gross domestic product in 1H19 rose only 6.3 percent. The slump is a result of a fall in the global and domestic demands. Moreover, the prolonged trade wa... Read more

12 Jul 2019

Thai Economy

KR-ECI Fell in June Thai Households Tighten Spending …Challenge for New Government

The KR-ECI and 3-month Expected KR-ECI slipped to 43.1 and 44.9 in June because Thai households were more concerned about economic conditions and their cost of living now and in the future, in particular domestic prices of goods, expenses (excluding debt), income and employment. ... Read more

28 Jun 2019

International Economy

G20 Summit: Hopes to End Trade War May Fade Away (Business Brief No.3004)

All eyes are on the G20 Summit, in particular a talk between the US and China, the world’s superpowers, to end the trade war that will last for a year in July 2019. Looking back, it is believed that the US and China knew that they would not benefit from the persistent trade war. A clear consequence ... Read more

26 Jun 2019

International Economy

Thailand as the ASEAN Chair is pushing the conclusion of RCEP… to reboot the multilateral free trade system (Current Issue No.3001)

The ASEAN Summit 2019 ended with members agreeing to conclude the talks for the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) framework by 2019. Thailand should take this opportunity as the ASEAN Chair to act as the facilitator to bridge the differences among members to push for the success of ... Read more

13 Jun 2019

Thai Economy

2019 Mid-Year Economic Stimuli, aimed at Promoting Domestic Spending, Helped Push KR-ECI Up Slightly in May 2019

The KR-ECI increased slightly to 43.7 in May 2019 over the reading of 43.5 reported for April 2019, thanks to 2019 mid-year economic stimuli that directly and indirectly helped ease the high cost of living of Thai households somewhat. In addition, some households were less anxious about debt because... Read more

21 May 2019

Thai Economy

2019 Thai Economy May Grow Lower-than-Expected at 3.7% due to Numerous Challenges Foreseen in 2H19 (Business Brief No.3801)

The Thai economy grew at the slowest pace in 17 quarters of 2.8 percent p.a. in 1Q19, lower than the consensus estimate at 3.2 percent, dampened by shrinking exports amid a steady slowdown in the global economy and impacts of the trade war. However, domestic spending and private investment overall c... Read more

13 May 2019

Thai Economy

KR-ECI Declined in April 2019 as Many Factors Affected Living Conditions of Thai Households

The KR-ECI and 3-month Expected KR-ECI slipped to 43.5 and 45.7 in April 2019 because households were more concerned about their living conditions, including income, employment, prices of goods and services, expenditures and debt. ... Read more

8 May 2019

Thai Economy

Survey on Economic Confidence after General Election Shows that Most Thais Do Not Change their Views on Thai Economy (Current Issue No.2989)

KResearch conducted a survey on the confidence of Thai households and entrepreneurs towards the Thai economy before and after the 2019 general election on March 25 and April 3, 2019. The poll shows that Thai households and entrepreneurs surveyed have changed their views towards the Thai economy afte... Read more

7 May 2019

Thai Economy

Parents in Bangkok Metropolitan Area are expected to spend around THB28.2 billion to get their children ready for school year 2019 (Current Issue No.2986)

During the back-to-school season, consumers with school-age children normally have higher expenditures associated with their children’s education. KResearch’s survey finds that over 54.2 percent of parents are concerned about the amount of their cash flow to spend during the 2019 semester; however, ... Read more

7 May 2019

International Economy

US-China trade war escalates…the US threat to hike tariffs on Chinese goods to 25 percent disrupts Thai trade outlook again (Current Issue No.2988)

The trade talks between the US and China last week did not produce a satisfactory outcome either side. Moreover, the US President Donald Trump announced plans to further raise tariffs on USD200 billion of Chinese goods from 10 to 25 percent starting Friday, May 10. The latest move puts greater press... Read more

29 Apr 2019

International Economy

Expected slowing US economy amid weaker-than-target inflation may signal a halt in Fed interest rate increase (Business Brief No.3799)

KResearch expects the Federal Reserve to maintain the policy rate at 2.25-2.50 percent during the Federal Open Market Committee meeting on April 30-May 1, 2019. The Fed’s hint at easing monetary policy will sustain the US economic growth in the remainder of this year. During 2Q19 and 3Q19, the US e... Read more

17 Apr 2019

International Economy

Chinese economy is likely to enjoy the highest growth at 6.4% YoY in 1Q19 before decelerating in the remainder of this year (Business Brief No.3796)

Chinese economy in 1Q19 expanded 6.4 percent YoY compared to 6.6 percent growth in 2018, while exports increased only 1.0 percent YoY versus 9.9 percent in 2018. Nonetheless, the government’s stimulus policy has begun to bear fruit to support the growth momentum of the Chinese economy. The Chinese... Read more

12 Apr 2019

Thai Economy

Increased spending before the election boosts income of trading households KR-ECI up slightly in March 2019

KResearch views that issues that must be monitored closely in 2019. These include drought, which has arrived early and is expected to last longer than the previous year, because it will affect farm income and the cost of living of households resulting from higher raw food prices. Another issue is th... Read more

3 Apr 2019

Thai Economy

Songkran 2019: Spending in BKK to reach THB25 billion Hot weather affects spending lifestyle of each generation (Current Issue No.2976)

KResearch projects that during the Songkran Festival in 2019, Bangkokians will spend THB25 billion, up 3.6 percent from the previous year. Of the total, THB9.6 billion will be spent on party supplies (food and beverages), THB6.65 billion on accommodation/travel, THB4.6 billion on shopping, THB2.05 b... Read more

15 Mar 2019

International Economy

Slowing US economic indicators prompt the Fed to hint at only one rate hike in 2019 (Business Brief No.3792)

KResearch expects the US Federal Reserve (Fed) to keep the policy rates unchanged at 2.25-2.50 percent during the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on March 19-20, 2019. High external risk, slowing US economic activities and lower US inflation will prompt the Fed to hint at only one rate ... Read more

14 Mar 2019

Thai Economy

February KR-ECI Edged Up because Households Were Less Worried about Spending, Reflecting Gradual Recovery in Private Consumption

KResearch views that issues that must be monitored closely in 2019. These include drought, which has arrived early and is expected to last longer than the previous year, because it will affect farm income and the cost of living of households resulting from higher raw food prices. Another issue is th... Read more

12 Mar 2019

International Economy

Fate of Brexit: Will the UK Find Solutions before the Deadline? (Current Issue No.2973)

After British Prime Minister Theresa May sustained a parliamentary defeat as MPs rejected her Brexit plan on January 15, 2019, the UK parliament is scheduled to vote on her revised withdrawal agreement again on March 12, 2019, being the second meaningful vote on whether to leave the EU without a dea... Read more

5 Mar 2019

International Economy

All eyes on Fed meeting, imminent US/China trade deal, and domestic factors which may impact the Baht in the short (Current Issue No.2971)

The Thai Baht weakened from late February to early March, 2019 after hitting a five-year record high of THB31.07 per Dollar. The Baht traded within a range of THB31.80-THB31.85 per Dollar (as of March 5, 2019) amid varied pressures, namely domestic factors and US Dollar short-covering from many mark... Read more

18 Feb 2019

Thai Economy

Thailand Reported 3.7% GDP Growth in 4Q18 due to Easing External Risks 2019 Economic Growth Projected at 4.0% (Business Brief No.3788)

The Thai economy grew 3.7 percent YoY in 4Q18, increasing over that reported for 3Q18, thanks to easing external risks and continuing growth seen in domestic spending. The trade war continued to cause 4Q18 exports to expand at a slower pace from 3Q18. Many Asian economies were also affected by the t... Read more

13 Feb 2019

International Economy

EPA, Effective February 1, 2019, to Bolster Thai Eco/Hybrid and Parts Exports Ahead (Current Issue No.2966)

From February 1, 2019 onward, Japan’s car and auto-parts exports to the EU will enjoy gradual cuts in import tariffs under the EU-Japan Economic Partnership Agreement (EPA). KResearch views that since the EU will likely have to import more vehicles and auto-parts from Japan, Japanese carmakers may n... Read more

12 Feb 2019

Thai Economy

Economic Costs of Bangkok’s Dust Pollution Revised Upward to THB14.5 Billion (Current Issue No.2965)

The level of ultrafine dust particles exceeding safety standards in Greater Bangkok is expected to prolong until March 2019. Given this, KResearch has revised our forecast of its effect on the Thai economy in terms of opportunity costs incurred from health and tourism related issues, as well as othe... Read more

28 Jan 2019

International Economy

FED is likely to keep interest rates unchanged during its first meeting in 2019... while continuing a cautionary monetary policy in line with future economic directions. (Business Brief No.3773)

KResearch expects the Federal Reserve to keep the policy rate unchanged at 2.25-2.50 percent during its first policymaking meeting of the year from January 29-30, 2019. Although the US economy has shown signs of solid growth, risks associated with global economic uncertainty may prompt the US centra... Read more

24 Jan 2019

International Economy

EU’s Removal of “Yellow Card” Warning Improves Thai Fishing Industry’s Image…2019 Seafood Exports to EU Projected to Grow 0.0-2.0% Current Issue No.2958)

On January 8, 2019, the European Union (EU) announced to lift the so-called “Yellow Card” or warning on Thailand for our substantial progress in tackling illegal, unreported and unregulated (IUU) fishing. Although the removal helps improve the image of Thai seafood products, such exports the EU wil... Read more

22 Jan 2019

International Economy

China’s 2018 Economy Growth Hit 28-Year Low, with Heightened Risk Seen in 2019 (Business Brief No.3782)

China’s economy grew 6.6 percent in 2018, declining substantially from the 6.8 percent pace recorded in 2017. Its economy has weakened steadily, especially during 4Q18 to 6.4 percent, representing the lowest growth in 28 years. The sharp decline in 4Q18 economic performance was attributable chiefly ... Read more

16 Jan 2019

International Economy

Uncertainty persists after the UK parliament’s rejection of Theresa May’s Brexit Plan (Current Issue No.2956)

The UK parliament voted to reject the Brexit deal presented by Prime Minister Theresa May on January 14, 2019 with 432 rejecting votes and only 202 approving votes. The result marks the heaviest parliamentary defeat of a British prime minister in history. The vote results show that members of the U... Read more

16 Jan 2019

International Economy

Japan overtakes Thailand to take 3rd position in CLMV-EPI Index, with focus on service investment in CLM (CLMV-EPI)

Thailand experienced the first time of its KR CLMV Economic Presence (CLMV-EPI) Index not being among the top three ranking since the fourth quarter of 2017, replaced by Japan at the third position as affirmed by its increasing role as a large investor in CLMV. Change in Japan’s direct investment in... Read more

15 Jan 2019

Thai Economy

Economic Costs of Bangkok Air Pollution Preliminarily Estimated to be at Least THB2.6 Billion (Current Issue No.2955)

Greater Bangkok was last hit by the high level of hazardous dust particles at the end of 2017 through to the beginning of 2018. Air pollution blanketed capital again in January 2019, with the prospect of prolonged unhealthy air quality levels . This problem and the impacts of global warming or clima... Read more

11 Jan 2019

Thai Economy

KR-ECI Increased for 3 Straight Months in December 2018 Thai Households Enjoyed more Income amid Ebbing Cost of Living

• The KR-ECI conducted nationwide rose to 46.0 percent in December 2018 because some Thai households got extra income while the cost of living was declining in line with raw food prices and energy costs. • The 3-month Expected KR-ECI also increased to 47.6 in December because households spent les... Read more

20 Dec 2018

Thai Economy

2019 inflation will likely slow to 0.8% Shaped by weather conditions, energy and utility prices (Business Brief No.3778)

KResearch maintains our estimate of Headline Inflation in 2018 at 1.1 percent, compared to the 0.7-percent pace of 2017, as a result of rising energy prices and housing rents amid contracting prices of fresh food following a large quantity of supplies in the market.... Read more

14 Dec 2018

International Economy

FOMC Meeting, December 18-19, 2018: Policy Rate Hike likely while Fed’s 2019 Monetary Policy Stand Hinges on Economic Conditions (Business Brief No.3776)

We at KResearch view that the US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will likely raise its policy rate by another 0.25 percent to 2.25-2.50 percent over the current 2.00-2.25 percent at its final meeting of 2018 as it marches toward a more normal policy stance, given that the US economy has outperf... Read more

12 Dec 2018

Thai Economy

KR-ECI Up in November due to Ebbing Energy Prices

The KR-ECI and 3-month Expected KR-ECI improved in November due to ebbing energy prices and new government measures, aimed at assisting low-income earners and farmers. The KR-ECI rose to 45.7 in November over 45.3 reported for October and the 3-month Expected KR-ECI (December 2018-February 2019) cam... Read more

3 Dec 2018

International Economy

US-China trade truce to suspend imposing tariffs for 90 days eases short-term tension but impact on Thailand lingers (Current Issue No.2943)

On the sidelines of the G20 meetings in Buenos Aires, Argentina on December 1, 2018, US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping struck a temporary truce, agreeing not to increase punitive tariffs for 90 days after the G20 meetings to pave the way for negotiations to end the trade wa... Read more

19 Nov 2018

International Economy

Trade war may trigger more investment outflows from China but its benefits on Thailand will be limited to certain industries (Current Issue No.2939)

Uncertainties associated with the trade war between Washington and Beijing may prompt investors to manage their business risks by diversifying their investments from China to countries not directly affected by the trade battle. Nonetheless, direct benefits for Thailand will be limited because Thaila... Read more

19 Nov 2018

Thai Economy

3Q18 GDP growth: Lower-than-expected and lowest in 2018 due to external economic factors (Business Brief No.3772)

The Thai economy in the third quarter of 2018 expanded 3.3 percent YoY, which is the lowest recorded growth rate of this year and also lower than the market expectation of 4.1-percent growth due mainly to external economic factors. Meanwhile, there were positive signals in domestic consumption, incl... Read more

15 Nov 2018

Thai Economy

Higher Growth Potential of Public Construction in 2019, Buoyed by Mega Projects (Current Issue No.2937)

A number of infrastructure projects have exhibited satisfactory progress after the government’s announcement of an action plan to expedite large infrastructure investments in 2016-2018 with an important impetus being the Eastern Economic Corridor (EEC) program with THB trillions of investment. Compl... Read more

14 Nov 2018

Thai Economy

3-month Expected KR-ECI Improves Households Are Optimistic toward Future Income

​The 3-month Expected KR-ECI edged up slightly to 46.9 in October over 46.5 reported for September. This is because households were more optimistic toward income and employment over the next three months (November 2018 - January 2019) partly as a result of the fact that non-farm households that wi... Read more

7 Nov 2018

International Economy

US Midterm Election Results ... sending only weak economic stimulation amid ongoing trade war (Current Issue No.2935)

At present, the fast-paced business world is fuelled largely by digital disruption. The tourism and hospitality business is one of the industries that has experienced a rapid evolution in the past decade, with Online Travel Agencies (OTAs) emerging to become a force to be reckoned with. The OT... Read more

31 Oct 2018

International Economy

FOMC Meeting, September 7-8: Fed Continues to Signal More Rate Increases…Watch Out for Factors Affecting Rate Hike Timing in 2019 (Business Brief No.3770)

We at KResearch expect that the FOMC will resolve to keep its policy rate intact at 2.00-2.25 percent at the upcoming meeting slated for September 7-8, 2018 before raising the Fed Funds rate by another 0.25 percent at the final meeting of this year. Factors supporting the path of Fed’s monetary poli... Read more

22 Oct 2018

Thai Economy

Thai exports in September 2018 contract 5.2% ... due to factors including bigger impact from the escalated trade war (Business Brief No.3768)

Thai export growth in September 2018 recorded the first drop in 19 months due partly to a sharp decline in gold exports as a result of a high base effect last year and volatility of the gold market. After an exclusion of gold export value, which contracted 78.7 percent YoY, Thai exports shrank sligh... Read more

19 Oct 2018

International Economy

Chinese Economy Slowed in 3Q18 Despite Accelerated Exports and Easing Monetary Policy…Watch Out for Challenges that May Further Hurt Growth in 2019 (Business Brief No.3767)

China’s economic growth slipped to 6.5 percent YoY in 3Q18, representing a record low since 2009. The decelerated growth was attributable to steady drop in its industrial production amid the country’s trade dispute, which is expected to escalate ahead, plus persistent sluggishness seen in household ... Read more

10 Oct 2018

International Economy

Fed rate, oil prices and regional currencies are 3 factors weakening Thai Baht late this year (Current Issue No.2931)

It is apparent that the Thai currency and the Thai government bond yields - especially the long-term bond yields - have begun to ostensibly “swing” in the last quarter of the year. The Thai Baht weakened to touch THB33.10 against the greenback on October 9 (when the net sales of equities and bonds b... Read more

5 Oct 2018

Thai Economy

2019 Inflation Projected to Increase by 0.7-1.1% Amid Surging Global Crude Oil Prices, Though the Figure Will Depend on Government Policy of Supervising Energy (Current Issue No.2930)

2019 Inflation Projected to Increase by 0.7-1.1% Amid Surging Global Crude Oil Prices, Though the Figure Will Depend on Government Policy of Supervising Energy (Current Issue No.2930)... Read more

21 Sep 2018

Thai Economy

2018 Kin Jae festival is expected to generate THB4.65 billion in BKK with healthy diet being the main reason to attract customers (Current Issue No.2927)

Kin Jae (vegetarian) is one of the main festivals that food and beverages suppliers and distributors, including fine restaurants, street food vendors, convenience stores and online operators, have paid attention as this annual event is one of the best periods to boost their sales and expand their cu... Read more

21 Sep 2018

International Economy

Fed Meeting, Sep 25-26 ... Expected Rate Increase of 0.25% ... Intensified Trade Conflicts to be Watched (Business Brief No.3760)

KResearch expects the Federal Reserve (Fed) will raise the policy interest rate by 0.25 percent from 1.75-2.00 percent to 2.00-2.25 percent in its meeting slated for September 25-26, 2018. The Fed will also likely announce an increase in its balance sheet normalization process to the maximu... Read more

20 Aug 2018

Thai Economy

1H18 Economy Recorded Surprising Growth, Aided by Domestic Spending … 2018 GDP Projected to Expand at Least 4.5% (Business Brief No.3756)

The Thai economy grew at an average of 4.8 percent p.a. during 1H18, supported by steady GDP growth of 4.6 percent p.a. in 2Q18. Domestic spending began to support the Thai economy in addition to exports and tourism amid rising agricultural supplies.... Read more

16 Aug 2018

International Economy

Turkish Currency Crisis…Limited Impacts on Thai Financial Sector (Current Issue No. 2924)

Financial markets worldwide are keeping close watch on possible risks and impacts that may be caused by the Turkish Lira crisis. Although the Lira has picked up somewhat (after hitting a historical low at 7.2362/USD on August 13), it will likely face many sell-offs ahead amid limited tools/resource... Read more

15 Aug 2018

International Economy

Closely watch Turkish currency crisis … Lira meltdown can put Eurozone economies at risk (Current Issue No. 2923)

In 2018, the Turkish economy is facing pressures from all sides amid risks threatening its economic stability such as the Federal Reserve interest rate hike, which accelerates fund outflows and continuously and quickly increases borrowing costs. An increasing oil price and weaker Turkish lira have c... Read more

10 Aug 2018

Thai Economy

KR-ECI in July edges up for the first time in 6 months in anticipation of better income and job opportunities

KR-ECI in July 2018 edged up for the first time in 6 months from 44.7 in June to 45.1 due to household anticipation of better income and employment, in addition to their easing concerns about prices of products and services in the country. The 3-month Expected KR-ECI slip... Read more

26 Jul 2018

International Economy

FED is likely to maintain the interest rate at 1.75-2.00% at its meeting on July 31-August 1, 18...close attention to trade dispute (Business Brief No.3754)

KResearch expects the Federal Reserve (Fed) to hold the policy rates steady at 1.75-2.00 percent during the fifth round of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting this year. The risk factor - that may disrupt the path of the US economic recovery in the remainder of this year - is still the ... Read more

26 Jul 2018

International Economy

Trade War Likely to be Prolonged in 2019 … Possibly Affecting Thai Exports at 0.5%-0.6% of GDP (Current Issue No. 2922)

In 2018, the trade war provoked by the US may not produce significant repercussions on Thailand, given that the measures to impose new tariffs on solar panels, large washing machines, iron and aluminum since the beginning of the year has not involved considerable value. Despite, the first round of n... Read more

19 Jul 2018

International Economy

A Record-Low Yuan May Pressure Other Asian Currencies (Current Issue No. 2920)

From the beginning of 2018 to July 19, the Yuan weakened by more than 3.5 percent against the US Dollar, representing a new record low of CNY6.73/USD. Factors contributing to a rapid softening of the Yuan over the past few months include heightened risks stemming from the US-China trade war, which h... Read more

17 Jul 2018

International Economy

China achieved 6.7% economic growth in 2Q18…with challenge of long-term stability given prolonged trade disputes (Business Brief No.3751)

While China’s government policies have constrained growth in some economic sectors, its GDP report for 2Q18 indicated ongoing growth overall, reaching 6.7 percent YoY compared to the 6.8-percent pace reported for 1Q18. Considering growth components, the factors pressuring economic growth include the... Read more

6 Jul 2018

Thai Economy

Thailand’s External Stability Remains Solid to Brace for Volatility of Capital Outflows … Eyeing Heightened Volatility from Trade War (Current Issue No. 2918)

Looking ahead, close attention must be paid to the ongoing trade war. If it persists beyond 2018, our real economic sector could be undermined over the next 2-4 years. Moreover, due to the cyclical upturn in interest rates, concerns may shift toward internal stability, in particular when Thailand is... Read more

29 Jun 2018

Thai Economy

Thai Household Debt Rose 5.2% YoY in 1Q18 In line with increasing retail lending of commercial banks (Business Brief No.3750)

According to Bank of Thailand data on household borrowing in 1Q18, the ratio of household debt to GDP dropped from 78.0 percent in 4Q17 to 77.6 percent (while the seasonally adjusted figure stood at 77.7 percent). However, the outstanding household debt in 1Q18 stepped up to THB12.17 billion, or 5.2... Read more

12 Jun 2018

Thai Economy

KR-ECI Declined in May due to Rising Cost of Living Driven by Energy Prices But Income and Employment Improved

The KR-ECI and 3-month Expected KR-ECI slipped to 44.9 and 46.2 for May chiefly because of substantial increases in the domestic prices of goods and services, in particular energy. Household income and employment, however, improved, due in part to continuing recovery in the Thai economy and higher f... Read more

11 Jun 2018

International Economy

Fed is expected to raise the policy rate by 0.25% during the meeting on June 12-13 supported by continuing expansion of the US economy (Business Brief No.3746)

KResearch expects the Federal Reserve (Fed) to raise its policy rate by 0.25 percentage points from 1.50-1.75 percent to 1.75-2.00 percent during the fourth round of the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting this year on June 12-13, 2018. A solid expansion of the US economy and the f... Read more

4 Jun 2018

International Economy

New context of Malaysian economy after“2018 poll: Closely watch major shift in economic policy amid fragile economic fundamentals (Current Issue No. 2913)

The economic policies recently announced by newly-elected Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad mark a major shift from those under the ousted Barisan Nasional government, especially the country’s policies on large-scale infrastructure investments. On May 28, 2018, Prime Minister Mahathir announ... Read more

1 Jun 2018

Thai Economy

Inflation accelerated to 1.49% in May given high energy prices 2H18 pace may ease due to last year’s high base of comparison (Business Brief No.3745)

Head line inflation in May 2018 accelerated to 1.49 percent, mainly on the back of domestic energy prices that had risen in line with the uptrend of global crude oil prices to nearly USD80/barrel. If global crude oil prices are within the range of USD70-80/barrel over the remainder of 2018, Thailand... Read more

25 May 2018

International Economy

China begins cutting tariffs to ease trade tensions with the US, but uncertainty lingers (Current Issue No. 2911)

Finally, China and the US have reached a compromise to ease trade tensions. Recently, Beijing announced that it will cut tariffs on imported passenger cars from 25 to 15 percent and auto parts from 10 to 6 percent, effective July 1, 2018. Looking forward, China is set to announce a string of measure... Read more

22 May 2018

Thai Economy

April Exports Post 14th Month of High Growth Full-Year Growth Expected at 8% (Business Brief No.3743)

Thailand’s global trade value in April 2018 dropped into negative territory, with a trade deficit of USD1.283 billion – the highest in 43 months. This was due to an import expansion of 20.4 percent YoY, partly caused by surging oil prices in world markets and accelerated imports of products... Read more

21 May 2018

Thai Economy

1Q18 GDP is likely to register the highest rate of 2018 Growth in the remainder of the year is expected to top 4.0 %

The Thai economy in 1Q18 rose to a record 5-year high at 4.8 percent YoY, driven by booming export and tourism sectors. At the same time, housing spending began to show positive signs, picking up momentum from the previous quarter. Additionally, agricultural production has dramatically increased, be... Read more

15 May 2018

Thai Economy

Digital Asset Law Aimed at Protecting Retail Investors and Promoting Financial Stability (Business Brief No.3741)

The new digital asset law is intended to supervise retail investors and promote roles, as well as responsibilities of related businesses. All sections under the law require companies selling digital token or issuing initial coin offering (ICO) to comply with the SEC rules and regulations, in... Read more

8 May 2018

Thai Economy

Under economic pressure, parents in Bangkok are expected to spend THB27.5 billion during 2018 back-to-school season(Current Issue No. 2910)

KResearch expects that parents in Greater Bangkok will spend around THB27.5 billion during the 2018 school year, up 1.9 percent YoY, showing a decrease in spending growth because the main spending items such as tuition remain unchanged. Additionally, most parents are spending cautiously on education... Read more

4 May 2018

Thai Economy

3-Month Expected KR-ECI Improves on Declining Expenses

The 3-month Expected KR-ECI increased to 46.9 in April 2018 because households expected that their expenditures (excluding debt) would decline over the next three months after the Songkran spending spree and making tuition fee payments for their children.... Read more

4 May 2018

Thai Economy

Number of Middle Eastern Tourist Arrivals to Thailand May Contract in 2018 due to Economic and Competition Factors (Current Issue No. 2909)

KResearch thus expects that the number of Middle Eastern holidaymakers to Thailand will continue to shrink during the remainder of 2018. As a result, the number of Middle Eastern tourist arrivals will reach perhaps 7.58-7.79 million in 2018, shrinking 4.2-1.4 percent, against the 5.7 percent growth ... Read more

27 Apr 2018

International Economy

Fed Policy Rate Expected to Remain at 1.50-.175 in May Meeting…Continued Rise in US Bond Yield to be Monitored (Business Brief No.3739)

KResearch expects the Federal Reserve (Fed) will resolve to maintain its policy interest rate at 1.50-1.75 percent in its third meeting of this year, in awaiting to assess further developments of the US economy and risks arising from trade disputes. Given the US attempts to minimize their trade defi... Read more

24 Apr 2018

Thai Economy

2018 Exports Likely Grow 7% after 1Q18 Shipments hit a 7-year high of 11.3% (Business Brief No.3737)

Thailand’s merchandise exports reached USD22.363 billion for March 2018, representing a fresh record high. As a result, our 1Q18 shipments hit a 7-year high of 11.3 percent YoY. Despite a high 2017 base, the value of March exports was driven by steady economic growth seen in our trade partners, ... Read more

19 Apr 2018

International Economy

China’s economy may slow after robust growth in 1Q18 (Business Brief No.3736)

In KResearch’s view, China’s economy may slow over the remainder of 2018, along with exports that will likely weaken as well, amid full-year growth that is expected to reach 6.6 percent YoY. Because accelerated shipments were already transacted before the effectiveness of new tariff rates per Sectio... Read more

11 Apr 2018

Thai Economy

March KR-ECI Down on Higher Household Expenses

KR Household Economic Condition Index (KR-ECI) slipped to 45.6 in March, due partly to concern toward global trade that has become ever more complex and could affect the Thai economy in any way, while there has been no new stimulus in the country. In addition, households incurred extra expenses (exc... Read more

11 Apr 2018

Thai Economy

Emerging interest in culture and history boosts domestic tourism in 1H18, while tourist receipts are set to reach THB515 billion. (Current Issue No. 2908)

In the second half of 2018, KResearch views that domestic tourism will continue to expand, thanks to the conducive domestic environment and the government’s project to promote the kingdom’s secondary destinations in 55 cities. In addition, hospitality operators including those engaging i... Read more

5 Apr 2018

Thai Economy

Songkran Festival 2018: Spending in Bangkok to Reach THB24.14 Billion (Current Issue No. 2907)

It is expected that spending by Bangkok residents during the Songkran Festival will improve in 2018, thanks to longer holidays and a better atmosphere to travel than the previous year. A poll conducted by KResearch shows that 53.0 percent of Bangkok city dwellers intent to engage in various activi... Read more

23 Mar 2018

International Economy

Little impact expected on China from US trade measures but watchful for Thailand (Current Issue No. 2906)

US President Donald Trump has signed an executive memorandum to slap tariffs worth USD60 billion on Chinese exports, reasoning that China has infringed on US intellectual property per Section 301 Anchorof the 1974 Trade Act. Although this round of trade measures is the most serious so far against f... Read more

16 Mar 2018

International Economy

FOMC Meeting, March 20-21: Another 0.25% Rate Hike Likely, Watch Out for First Signal from New Fed Chair Powell (Business Brief No.3731)

We at KResearch expect that the US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will increase its key policy rate by another 0.25 percent to 1.50-1.75 percent at the second meeting of 2018 slated for March 20-21, given that the US economy has grown beyond its potential. Looking ahead, there is a likelihood ... Read more

14 Mar 2018

International Economy

Thailand must brace for trade disputes between the US, EU and China, etc. (Current Issue No. 2905)

The US is pressing ahead with trade measures against trade partners globally. In addition to their new ‘safeguard tariffs’ on imported solar panels and large washing machines imposed early in 2018, and more recently on imported steel and aluminum, the US is now preparing to implement protectionist m... Read more

12 Mar 2018

Thai Economy

Households are Cautious about Spending in 1Q18

​ According to a survey on household economic conditions for February, views of Thai households across the country toward economic conditions and the cost of living over the next three months remained unchanged. This is reflected in the 3-month Expected KR-ECI that was static at 47.1 in F... Read more

6 Mar 2018

International Economy

China’s 2018 Economic Targets Reflect Slower Economic Growth, while Monetary and Fiscal Policies are Still Being Used to Sustain Economic Growth Ahead (Business Brief No.3730)

All eyes were on the National People’s Congress, March 5, 2018, because the ruling Communist Party proposed constitutional a... Read more

2 Mar 2018

International Economy

Planned New US Tariffs on Metal Imports Triggering More Intense Trade Protectionism (Current Issue No. 2903)

Throughout 2018, the US administration’s continual pursuit of protectionist trade measures has tended to increase volatility in global trade. Most recently, President Donald Trump announced that new “safeguard” tariffs would be imposed on steel and aluminum imports at 25 percent and 10 percent, resp... Read more

19 Feb 2018

Thai Economy

Thai economy continues to grow in 2018 Growth of 4.0% is expected (Business Brief No.3727)

The Thai economy in 4Q17 was buoyed by high growth in exports and tourism, while household consumption started to improve compared to... Read more

9 Feb 2018

Thai Economy

Official launch of EEC: Key to Thailand’s Economic Development (Current Issue No. 2899 Full Ed.)

The National Legislative Assembly (NLA) has approved the Eastern Economic Corridor (EEC) bill which is expected to boost investor confidence in large-scale, long-term investments by providing private investors additional incentives, namely non-tax privileges and a speedier process for licensing, in ... Read more

9 Feb 2018

Thai Economy

2018 Chinese New Year: Bangkok Populace to Spend THB13 Billion, Up 4.3% (Current Issue No. 2898 Full Ed.)

A poll conducted by KResearch on spending by Bangkok residents of Chinese descent during the 2018 Chinese New Year shows that their purchasing power, in particular that among middle-to-high income earners has begun to improve, thanks to the recovering Thai economy. However, the current spending slug... Read more

26 Jan 2018

International Economy

Fed Meeting Expected to Maintain Rate Leaving Room for Increasing Rate Later (Business Brief No.3725)

KResearch expects the US Federal Reserve (Fed) to maintain their policy rate at 1.25-1.50 percent during their first round of meeting o... Read more

22 Jan 2018

Thai Economy

Thai Household Debt May Fall to 77-78% of GDP in 2018 (Current Issue No. 2896)

In 3Q17, Thailand's household debt fell from 78.4 percent of GDP – as recorded in 2Q17 – to 78.3 percent of GDP, which could be the res... Read more

18 Jan 2018

Thai Economy

Economy Likely Unfazed by THB5-22 Daily Minimum Wage Hikes Nationwide (Business Brief No.3722 Full Ed.)

The National Wage Committee recently agreed to raise the daily minimum wage to THB315.97, on average, or a range of THB308-330 across the... Read more

18 Jan 2018

Thai Economy

Economy Likely Unfazed by THB5-22 Daily Minimum Wage Hikes Nationwide (Business Brief No.3722)

The National Wage Committee recently agreed to raise the daily minimum wage to THB315.97, on average, or a range of THB308-330 across the country, effective April 1, 2018. The new rates vary by province and are split into seven rates, versus the four rates seen in recent years, because a set of new ... Read more