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Economic Analysis

23 Sep 2020

International Economy

All eyes are on fluctuations in commodity prices...in light of China’s stockpiling policy (Current Issue No.3140)

In September 2020, China sent a positive signal in regard to its economic development plan that laid out the country’s strategies for the next five years, from 2021 through 2025. Of particular interest is China’s return to stockpiling commodities with an emphasis on food security. Such actions will ... Read more

14 Sep 2020

International Economy

Fed set to keep interest rates in a range of 0-0.25% at FOMC meeting Sep. 15-16, having passed a resolution to adjust long-term inflation in the previous month (Business Brief No.3884)

KResearch has assessed that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will continue to keep interest rates in a range of 0.0-0.25 percent at the next Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting which will be held on September 15-16, as the Fed is thought to have already used all the tools necessary to sustain the ... Read more

10 Sep 2020

International Economy

Drafting of the UK’s Internal Market Bill set to trigger no-deal Brexit by the end of 2020 (Current Issue No.3133)

Ever since the results of the EU Referendum on June 23, 2016, led to the planned withdrawal of the United Kingdom from the EU, the event that all parties concerned have hoped for is a negotiation to finalize the economic and trade relations between the UK and the EU going forward. However, after th... Read more

2 Sep 2020

International Economy

Fed’s flexible inflation policy reinvigorates the US capital market but may produce volatility for financial markets in the future once inflation returns (Business Brief No.3882)

Mr. Jerome Powell, the US Federal Reserve chairman, announced a major monetary policy shift at the latest Jackson Hole conference (August 27, 2020). The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) reached a unanimous decision in approving longer-run goals and monetary policy strategy adjustment. The shift ... Read more

28 Aug 2020

Thai Economy

KResearch forecasts the Thai economy may see a U-shaped recovery with GDP shrinking by 10 percent

KASIKORN RESEARCH CENTER (KResearch) views that the Thai economy may have seen its trough in the second quarter on a QoQ basis. GDP for 2020 is projected to see a 10-percent contraction. Meanwhile, the Thai economy is likely to show a U-shaped recovery compared to the same period of last year. The f... Read more

17 Aug 2020

Thai Economy

Thai economy expected to hit its trough in 2Q20 though 2H20 still fraught with risk; effectiveness of additional relief measures remains to be seen. (Business Brief No.3880)

The Thai economy in 2Q20 shrank by -12.2 percent YoY, a lesser decline than the market expectations of -13.0 to -17.0 percent YoY, due to a resurgence in government spending and investment in 2Q20. This surge occurred amid the issuance of several stimulus packages, in particular the relief measure ... Read more

10 Aug 2020

Thai Economy

KR-ECI Declined in July 2020 as Households Were More Concerned about Debt Despite Second Phase of Assistance Measures for Borrowers

The KR-ECI stood at 35.3 in July 2020, declining from 36.0 recorded in June 2020 because households were more concerned about debt, expenses and domestic prices of goods and services. Although the Bank of Thailand’s (BOT) has introduced the second phase of assistance measures for borrowers, debt ser... Read more

24 Jul 2020

International Economy

Fed expected to maintain interest rate at 0.0-0.25% at meeting on Jul. 28-29 – present situation still does not warrant issuance of additional policy measures (Business Brief No.3878)

KResearch projects that the Fed will continue to maintain the interest rate at 0.0-0.25 percent at its upcoming monetary policy meeting on July 28-29, 2020. The measures that have already been taken should be sufficient to sustain the US economy, which is weakening and will likely take a long time t... Read more

17 Jul 2020

International Economy

US eliminates Hong Kong’s special status, rekindling the flames of the US-China trade war prior to 2020 US election (Current Issue No.3124)

Over the course of the past two years that have been dominated by the US-China trade war, the US has been unable to reduce its trade deficit with China to the targeted level. Shifting the focus to Thailand, Thai export businesses incurred a net loss of USD 1.1 billion in related products. ... Read more

17 Jul 2020

International Economy

Effective Control of COVID-19 Pandemic Helps Support 2Q20 Chinese Economy to Grow Faster than Expected at 3.2% YoY (Business Brief No.3875)

The Chinese economy reverted to growth of 3.2 percent YoY in 2Q20, versus the 6.8 percent YoY contraction reported for 1Q20, thanks to the government’s effective measures in combating the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, thus allowing economic activity in the country to return to normalcy. Its indus... Read more

10 Jul 2020

Thai Economy

Households have better outlook on their well-being over the next 3 months – first time in 7 months - reflecting the worst is now over

KR-ECI in June 2020 stood 36.0, maintaining a similar level to 36.1 in May 2020. Over the previous month, the government has exercised further relaxation of preventive measures on activities and businesses in the yellow band (Phase 3) and the red band (Phase 4), as well as the revocation of the decr... Read more

15 Jun 2020

Thai Economy

May KR-ECI Improves over that Reported in April First and Second Phases of Easing Restrictions Cause Households to be less Concerned about Income and Employment

The KR-ECI increased to 36.1 in May 2020, over 35.1 reported for April 2020 because households were less concerned about income and employment after the government gradually introduced the first and second phases of easing the country’s lockdown for businesses classified in the “White” and “Green” g... Read more

9 Jun 2020

International Economy

Fed to Keep Policy Rate Steady at 0.0-0.25% during June 9-10 Meeting Amid Heightened Economic Risk (Business Brief No.3870)

The US economy continues to experience increased risk despite recovering signs seen after Washington began easing lockdown measures in May 2020. The US Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) came in at 43.1 in May, rising over the 41.5 reported for April while unemployment slipped to 13.3 percent in May, ... Read more

4 Jun 2020

Thai Economy

Unemployment rate in Bangkok rose to 9.6 percent in May 2020; government advised to create additional jobs (Business Brief No.3868)

KResearch conducted a survey on the well-being of Thai households in Greater Bangkok in the wake of the COVID-19 outbreak, in the period between May 21 and May 28, 2020. Following are some of the most noteworthy findings from the survey... Read more

27 May 2020

Thai Economy

2020 Back-to-School Season: Parents in Greater Bangkok to Spend Roughly THB28.26 Billion, Up Only 0.1% YoY (Current Issue No.3113)

During this time of every year, parents having school children have to set aside expenses for the new school year. These include tuition fees (for those sending their children to private and international schools), fees for education services and activities at schools, textbook, education equipment,... Read more

15 May 2020

Thai Economy

April KR-ECI Remains at Low Level as Debt Moratoriums Only Helps Ease Financial Burden Somewhat while Income and Savings Indicators Worsen

The KR-ECI came in at 35.1 in April, which was relatively low compared to the reading of 43.5 recorded during the same period last year. The April KR-ECI, however, improved over that seen in March due chiefly to the decreased debt burden of households because an increasing number of them had been g... Read more

7 May 2020

International Economy

Opportunities and Challenges of ASEAN Amid Transformation of Supply Chains Post COVID-19 (Current Issue No.3108)

A majority of ASEAN member states overall may experience fragile supply chains as a result of their dependency on imports of intermediate products from sources that are highly competitive in terms of costs, namely China, plus technologies from countries that own advanced technologies, such as South ... Read more

27 Apr 2020

International Economy

Fed expected to keep interest rates at 0.0-0.25% in the meeting of 28-29 April; negative rates seen as unnecessary for now (Business Brief No.3863)

The US economy is experiencing markedly elevated risk from the spread of COVID-19. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) projects that the US economy in 2020 may contract by 5.9 percent, a decline comparable in severity to that of the Great Depression in 1930. The US economy severely contracted afte... Read more

22 Apr 2020

International Economy

CLMV’s economic growth crashes to two-decade low due to COVID-19; worst effects among countries more dependent on foreign income (Current Issue No.3100)

The COVID-19 pandemic is having a negative impact on CLMV economies through their dependency on foreign-sourced revenue from tourism and exports. Countries which are heavily dependent on foreign revenue are facing more negative effects during this crisis.... Read more

17 Apr 2020

Thai Economy

March KR-ECI Fell for Third Consecutive Month Amid Sagging Household Savings and Income

The severe impact of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic abroad, especially in the US and Europe, plus social distancing measures to combat the viral disease, has dealt a big blow to the Thai economy and living conditions of Thai households at this time and over the next three months.... Read more

17 Apr 2020

International Economy

Chinese economy in 1Q20 contracted for the first time since record-keeping began; 1-3% growth expected through 2020 (Business Brief No.3861)

The Chinese economy contracted by 6.8 percent (YoY) in 1Q20, marking the first time that the Chinese economy has experienced a contraction since statistical reports began in 1992. The main reason for this phenomenon is the stringent COVID-19 disease control and prevention measures issued by the Chin... Read more

3 Apr 2020

International Economy

Governments worldwide boost economies through biggest stimulus packages on record in wake of COVID-19 Pandemic (Business Brief No.3854)

The novel coronavirus or COVID-19 pandemic continues to grow in severity, with most parts of the world seeing no signs of easing or control of viral spread in the near future. The pandemic has plunged the world economy into a state of higher negative risk, as it enters a recession this year. Governm... Read more

16 Mar 2020

Thai Economy

KR-ECI fell to its lowest, hitting a new low in February 2020 after COVID-19 outbreak intensified worldwide

The COVID-19 outbreak that intensified worldwide through February 2020 represents an important risk factor which is putting pressure on KR-ECI and 3-month Expected KR-ECI, falling to its lowest level in 73 months. The households surveyed expressed increasing anxieties in all aspects related to the c... Read more

13 Mar 2020

Thai Economy

WHO upgrades COVID-19 to global pandemic; effects to be felt in Thai exports (Current Issue No.3091)

The outbreak of the Corona Virus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) has spread across the world to the extent that the World Health Organization (WHO) has raised its status to that of a pandemic, which has caused the global market to decline even further. This has generated even greater risk for Thai businesse... Read more

12 Mar 2020

Thai Economy

Deflation Foreseen in 2020 if Global Crude Oil Prices Continue to Plummet (Business Brief No.3854)

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and key non-OPEC allies (collectively known as OPEC+) failed to reach an agreement to trim their oil production by another 1.5 million barrels per day (bpd) on March 6, 2020 after non-OPEC refused to support OPEC’s deeper production cuts. ... Read more

6 Mar 2020

Thai Economy

2020 Thai Economy to Grow at the Slowest Pace in 11 Years due to COVID-19 Outbreak (Business Brief No.3853)

The novel coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak is set to be severe and spread broadly around the globe after new infections outside of China, in particular South Korea, Italy and Iran have surged. So far, the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases has reached more than 90,000 in over 70 countries and territo... Read more

4 Mar 2020

International Economy

Fed Makes Emergency Rate Cut by 0.50% to 1.00-1.25%...More Reductions Likely to Combat COVID-19 Fallout (Business Brief No.3852)

The Federal Reserve (Fed) trimmed its policy rate by 0.50 percent to 1.00-1.25 percent at an emergency meeting, March 3, 2020. The move suggests that the Fed has a more “negative” view towards the impact of the COVID-19 on household and business spending, plus the US economy overall, prompting it to... Read more

19 Feb 2020

International Economy

Competitiveness of Thai products in CLMV Begins to Decline…Product and Service Improvements Needed (KR CLMV Economic Presence Index Analysis)

The competiveness of Thai exports to CLMV has trended lower compared to dynamic exports of other Southeast Asian countries. Export share of other Southeast Asian countries in CLMV surged to over 50 percent in 2019, increasing from just 17 percent reported for 2018 or within only three years. The de... Read more

17 Feb 2020

Thai Economy

Thailand’s 2020 GDP Hinges on Fiscal and Monetary Policies in order to Grow 2% (Business Brief No.3850)

The Thai economic performance, which has already been plagued by the ongoing trade war, anemic global economy and severe drought in the country, is being further undermined by the current COVID-19 outbreak. Given this, Thailand’s GDP grew at less than our prior estimates at 1.6 percent p.a. during 4... Read more

12 Feb 2020

Thai Economy

KR-ECI Fell to a 6-Year Low in January 2020 COVID-19 Outbreak Steepens Risk to Cost of Living of Thai Households

The KR-ECI and 3-month Expected KR-ECI slipped to the lowest level in 72 months. The households surveyed were worried about all aspects related to the cost of living now and over the next three months, ... Read more

7 Feb 2020

Thai Economy

Thais adjust their behavior to cope with novel coronavirus outbreak, weighing in medical treatment or vaccination in their decision to resume their normal lifestyle (Current Issue No.3082)

A recent survey conducted by KResearch shows that a majority of the respondents or 66 percent of them were worried about the novel coronavirus outbreak with the epicentre in China, which has spread to other countries, including Thailand. Thais have hence paid more attention to preventive measures an... Read more

31 Jan 2020

Thai Economy

MPC Meeting, February 5, 2020: Policy Rate Cut Likely Amid New Risks (Business Brief No.3848)

New risks to the Thai economy have been seen. These include the novel coronavirus outbreak, which will likely hurt tourism receipts and a likelihood that the enforcement of the 2020 Budget Act will be delayed, thus preventing the government to use fiscal tools to fully steer the Thai economy. In ad... Read more

30 Jan 2020

International Economy

Novel coronavirus outbreak… causes at least 300 billion Yuan economic impact on 2020 Chinese economy in 1 month (Business Brief No.3847)

The transmission of the 2019 Novel Coronavirus (n-CoV) continues to escalate, prompting the Chinese authorities to take extreme measures to prevent the virus from spreading. For example, they locked down 18 cities in Hubei province by closing off access to the cities and transportation in the provi... Read more

27 Jan 2020

International Economy

Fed May Keep Policy Rate Unchanged in 1Q20, But Additional Rat Cuts Likely Prior to Presidential Election in November 2020 (Business Brief No.3846)

We at KResearch view that improving signs seen in the US economy overall will continue to provide the Fed room to keep its policy rate steady at least until 1Q20. However, the US manufacturing sector has not substantially recovery despite the signing of the first phase of a broader trade pact betwee... Read more

22 Jan 2020

Thai Economy

Escalating PM2.5 problem prompts government to speed up measures to address the problem as people pay attention to health risks (Current Issue No.3076)

The airborne PM2.5 has returned to become a serious issue since the start of 2020. The thickening smog, exceeding the standard safe level, prompted the Cabinet to approve measures to prevent and address the PM2.5 crisis on January 21, 2020. KResearch assessed the economic impacts of PM 2.5 particles... Read more

17 Jan 2020

International Economy

China's economic growth in 2019 records a 29-year low… weak momentum to continue in 2020 (Business Brief No.3844)

China’s economy, in 4Q19, slowed from the previous quarter to grow 6.0 percent YoY, driven by positive factors from the latest development of the US trade conflict with China. The partial agreement was attributed to the turnaround of China’s export and manufacturing sectors in 4Q19 with acceleration... Read more

16 Jan 2020

International Economy

Eyeing US-China Phase 1 Trade Deal…Terms of Trade Pact Will Likely Be Dictated by US Politics (Current Issue No.3072)

The US-China phase 1 trade pact was officially inked on January 15, 2020, lifting hopes that their 2-year tensions could ease. However, the US and China will continue to experience higher tariffs, in particular China, as some of its exports to US are still subject to additional tariffs at the rate o... Read more

15 Jan 2020

Thai Economy

Households have worse outlook on their well-being for the next 3 months, reflecting concerns over the overall Thai economic sentiment

• KR-ECI in December 2019 stood 42.4, up from 42.0 in November 2019. Households became less worried about their income and employment, partly due to seasonal factors, namely, the annual pay raise of private companies. Additionally, prices of various agricultural produce increased, boosting the farm... Read more

13 Jan 2020

Thai Economy

Chinese Year of the Rat 2020: Bangkok Residents to Spend THB13.15 Billion with Focus Placed on Necessities (Current Issue No.3070)

We at KResearch expect that spending by Bangkok residents will reach approximately THB13.15 billion, shrinking 3.0 percent YoY, during the upcoming Chinese New Year. That amount of spending includes THB5.9 billion on votive offerings, THB3.75 billion on traveling and merit making, plus THB3.5 billio... Read more

6 Jan 2020

International Economy

Monetary policy facing constraints… amid a recent jump in oil prices due to mounting US-Iran conflicts (Business Brief No.3842)

The US-Iran tensions have ramped up after General Qasem Soleimani, the Iran’s top commander, was killed in Baghdad on January 3, 2020, shooting up the international benchmark Brent crude on January 6, 2020 by 7 percent as compared to the level registered at the end of 2019. This conflict is being cl... Read more

23 Dec 2019

Thai Economy

2020 Inflation May Remain Steady at 0.7% amid Drought and Rising Daily Minimum Wage (Business Brief No.3839)

We at KResearch expect that average headline inflation may stand at 0.7 percent or within 0.4-0.9 percent in 2020, which would be at the same par as in 2019, amid risks stemming from drought and rising daily minimum wages.... Read more

19 Dec 2019

Thai Economy

New Year 2020: Bangkokians are expected to spend 29.8 billion Baht, most of them apply cautious approach (Current Issue No.3062)

KResearch expects Bangkokians to spend approximately 29.8 billion Baht during the New Year festival 2020, a contraction of 3.2 percent YoY because people want to save their money and become more cautious in their spending. Moreover, some moved up their spending plans to benefit from the stimulus mea... Read more

13 Dec 2019

International Economy

UK Election 2019: Tories’ victory will unlock Brexit hurdle in the short run, but there are other challenges ahead (Current Issue No.3061)

The preliminary result of the UK election on December 12, 2019 shows that Boris Johnson's Conservative party has secured a majority, and he will remain prime minister. Moreover, the Conservative party has gained a comfortable majority, winning 364 seats (of the total 650 seats) in the House of Commo... Read more

12 Dec 2019

Thai Economy

3-Month Expected KR-ECI Fell to 27-Month Low in November amid Heightened Concern about Future Employment

The 3-month Expected KR-ECI slipped for the second consecutive month to 42.1 in November, representing the lowest level in 27 months and declining from 43.5 reported for October. The decline was attributable to heightened concern among Thai households towards income and employment over the next thre... Read more

9 Dec 2019

International Economy

FOMC Meeting, December 10-11, 2019: Fed Signals to Keep Policy Rate Steady…No End to Interest Rate Cut in Sight (Business Brief No.3836)

KResearch expects that the US Federal Open Market Committee (FOCM) will likely resolve to keep its policy rate unchanged pending an economic assessment while also unveiling its new economic growth and interest rate forecasts at the final meeting of 2019. We expect that the Fed may maintain its 2020... Read more

18 Nov 2019

Thai Economy

Thai Economy, 2019: Growing at Less than Prior Estimate of 2.8% Easing Monetary and Fiscal Policies Needed for 2020 (Business Brief No.3832)

The Thai economic performance remained lackluster in 3Q19 due to a number of factors. These include the anemic global economy, partly as a result of the prolonged trade war, while the strong Baht continued to undermine the pricing competitiveness of Thai exports amid limited growth in public and pri... Read more

12 Nov 2019

Thai Economy

KR-ECI slips in Oct 2019 amid increased households’ concerns over Thai economy

The KR-ECI in October 2019 dropped from 42.3 in September 2019 to 41.8 due to increased concerns of households over their income and employment, spending, savings and domestic product and service prices.... Read more

25 Oct 2019

International Economy

FOMC Meeting, October 29-30, 2019: Fed Funds Rate Likely be Shaved by another 0.25% as Trade War Begins to Hurt Consumption (Business Brief No.3828)

We at KResearch expect that the US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) may cut its policy rate by another 0.25 percent at its meeting scheduled for October 29-30, 2019. Although the Fed resolved to steadily trim its policy rates at the latest two meetings and announced the purchase of short-term tr... Read more

21 Oct 2019

International Economy

3Q19 Chinese Economy Grew at Slower Pace at 6%, Pressuring Government to Introduce New Economic Stimuli (Business Brief No.3826)

The Chinese economy grew 6.0 percent YoY in 3Q19, representing the slowest growth in almost 30 years and declining from the 6.2 percent pace recorded during 2Q19. The disappointing economic performance, which stands at the lower end of China’s growth target, will likely force the government to intro... Read more

11 Oct 2019

Thai Economy

KR-ECI in September 19 edges up, albeit slightly Households show signs of adjusting their behavior to match their income limit

The KR-ECI in September 2019 edged up from 41.9 in August 2019 to 42.3 in September due to declining concerns of households over their expenses, savings, debt burden and domestic prices. Nonetheless, they are more worried about their income and employment. This change shows that households have adju... Read more

9 Oct 2019

International Economy

Vietnam’s Automotive Industry is Thriving despite over 46% of Cars Imported from Thailand (Current Issue No.3038)

Vietnam’s automotive industry is set to grow substantially over the next 5-7 years and this will likely attract additional investments in its car production. Although Vietnam is far behind other ASEAN member states in many aspects, in particular its car production, KResearch views that its car produ... Read more

9 Oct 2019

Thai Economy

Households View that Phase 1 of “Chim Shop Chai” Program Helps Reduce Cost of Living, but More Assistance Measures Needed (Business Brief No.3824)

The Cabinet, September 10, 2019, approved the 1,000-Baht cash handout as part of the government’s “Chim Shop Chai (Taste Shop Use)” program to stimulate domestic tourism, effective September 27 - November 30, 2019. Currently, a large number of people has begun to spend the cash giveaway in provinces... Read more

1 Oct 2019

Thai Economy

2Q19 Household Debt to GDP Remained Static at 78.7% with Debt Growing Faster than the Economy (Business Brief No.3823)

Outstanding household debt grew at a slower pace of 5.8 percent YoY in 2Q19 after hitting a four- year high of 6.3 percent YoY reported for 1Q19 due partly to the slowdown in home loans following the enforcement of LTV measure in April 2019. Personal home loans (extended by commercial banks, special... Read more

30 Sep 2019

Thai Economy

Toxic dust particles are back in Greater Bangkok: Opportunity cost from health-related issues is estimated at THB700-800 million during the 1 -2 week period (Current Issue No.3036)

Toxic smog is back as dust particles exceeding the so-called safe level have blanketed Bangkok and its perimeter. It is a result of stagnate weather. Nonetheless, the recurrence of hazardous smog in the capital this time prompts more concerns as it seems to be more severe than the haze early this ye... Read more

24 Sep 2019

Thai Economy

Spending on Kin Jae 2019 in BKK expected at THB4.76 billion; economy prompts people to curb spending (Current Issue No.3034)

The annual Kin Jae festival is helping feed Bangkok residents’ growing appetite for vegetarian food, with the participating population rising from 57.1 percent to 66.7 percent this year, reflecting a trend towards healthier lifestyles among the new generation. People are also eating less frequently ... Read more

20 Sep 2019

International Economy

China’s Central Bank (PBOC) plans for its own digital currency to counter dollar dominance and money laundering (Business Brief No.3820)

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) has announced a plan to release its own central bank digital currency (CBDC) with an aim to increase the role of the Chinese Yuan on the world market and to combat money laundering. The new currency will be retail CBDC that Chinese can use in lieu of cash. It will ... Read more

16 Sep 2019

International Economy

High Global Crude Oil Prices following Saudi Oil Attacks May Bolster 2019 Inflation by 0.3% (Business Brief No.3818)

Drone attacks on Saudi Arabia’s two major oil refineries on Saturday, September 14, 2019 have driven up Brent crude oil price in the futures market by almost 12 percent. The incident has sparked fears among investors worldwide over oil supply disruption because Saudi Arabia is the world’s largest oi... Read more

16 Sep 2019

International Economy

The Fed meeting on Sept 17-18, 2019 is expected to slash policy rates: Keep a close watch on the Fed’s new policy direction (Business Brief No.3817)

KResearch expects the US Federal Reserve to cut rates by a quarter of a percentage point from 2.00-2.25 percent to 1.75-2.00 percent during the Federal Market Open Committee (FOMC)’s meeting on September 17-18, 2019. The key US economic indicators, especially manufacturing output and employment, con... Read more

9 Sep 2019

Thai Economy

August KR-ECI Increased Slightly, Thanks to Ebbing Energy Costs, Rising Farm Income and Government Measures

The KR-ECI came in at 41.9 for August, increasing slightly over 41.5 reported in July because Thai households were less concerned about domestic goods and service prices amid falling energy costs. The rise was also attributable to the fact that some households were less anxious about income and empl... Read more

5 Sep 2019

International Economy

Renewed Trade War Forces Companies to Move Production Out of China…Thailand’s Potential to Lure New Investments May Be Limited (Current Issue No.3028)

The intensifying US-China trade dispute in terms of the value of goods subject to their import tariffs and magnitude of their import tariff hikes may shave Thai exports by approximately USD3 billion in 2019, against the USD2.4 billion projected before. ... Read more

20 Aug 2019

Thai Economy

Thai GDP growth in 2019 may slide below initial projections of 3.1%, while external risk factors may prompt the government to implement more stimulus to boost growth (Business Brief No.3814)

Thai GDP growth in 2019 may slide below initial projections of 3.1%, while external risk factors may prompt the government to implement more stimulus to boost growth (Business Brief No.3814)... Read more

15 Aug 2019

International Economy

Inversion of the US treasury yield signals risks that the US economy may be heading for recession (Current Issue No.3022)

The inverted yield curve -- where the US 2-year note yield has risen above the benchmark 10-year yield for the first time 12 years – is fueling fears that the global economy may be heading for recession in the next 12 months. This is because the inverted yield curve is an indicator which has correct... Read more

8 Aug 2019

Thai Economy

Household Concerns on Thai Economy pull KR-ECI for July 19 to 66-month low

The KR-ECI slipped for the second month in a row from 43.1 in June to 41.5 in July 2019, which is the lowest level in 66 months, owing to household concerns on all economic aspects, particularly the issues of income and employment, expenses and debt burdens.... Read more

7 Aug 2019

International Economy

From trade war to currency war… Thai authorities must be prepared (Current Issue No.3016)

The People's Bank of China allowed its currency to fall below 7 Yuan to the US Dollar for the first time in 11 years after the US announced last week that it would slap a 10 percent tariff on USD300 billion of Chinese goods. The latest move by Beijing signals its readiness to retaliate against the U... Read more

6 Aug 2019

International Economy

US Labeling of China as “Currency Manipulator” Sends Regional Currencies Reeling (Current Issue No.3034)

The trade war between the US and China has spread to a battle over currencies. Previously, their conflicts were limited to tariffs and international trade. Recently, the US Treasury Department accused China of “manipulating its currency”, representing a more aggressive move after China let the Yuan ... Read more

2 Aug 2019

International Economy

US decision to impose tariff on additional Chinese goods…Damage to Thailand increases to USD2.4 billion (Current Issue No.3013)

US President Donald Trump eventually announced an additional 10 percent tariff on the remaining USD300 billion of Chinese imports, effective September 1, 2019, due mainly to the slow progress in the trade talks. In particular, Beijing is bargaining for conditions which are difficult to be achievable... Read more

1 Aug 2019

International Economy

Fed Lowers Policy Rate, But the Baht Weakens Against the Greenback (Current Issue No.3012)

As expected, the Federal Reserve (Fed) slashed its policy rate for the first time in over 10 years to a range of 2.00-2.25 percent at its meeting, July 30-31, 2019. However, no signs of another policy rate cut have been seen from the Fed Chair. The outcome of the latest FOMC meeting has disappoint... Read more

25 Jul 2019

International Economy

Fed meeting on July 30-31, 2019 is expected to cut interest rate to sustain the US economic recovery (Business Brief No.3811)

KResearch expects the US Federal Reserve to cut the interest rates by 0.25 percent percentage point from 2.25-2.50 percent to 2.00-2.25 percent. Moreover, the Fed is likely to announce to end the balance sheet reduction before the initial schedule to ensure the continuity of the US economic expansio... Read more

17 Jul 2019

International Economy

Chinese economy in 2Q19 registers slowest growth rate in 27 years (Business Brief No.3808)

China's economic growth in 2Q19 grew at 6.2 percent, the slowest growth rate in 27 years and down from 6.4 percent in 1Q19. Consequently, China’s gross domestic product in 1H19 rose only 6.3 percent. The slump is a result of a fall in the global and domestic demands. Moreover, the prolonged trade wa... Read more

12 Jul 2019

Thai Economy

KR-ECI Fell in June Thai Households Tighten Spending …Challenge for New Government

The KR-ECI and 3-month Expected KR-ECI slipped to 43.1 and 44.9 in June because Thai households were more concerned about economic conditions and their cost of living now and in the future, in particular domestic prices of goods, expenses (excluding debt), income and employment. ... Read more

28 Jun 2019

International Economy

G20 Summit: Hopes to End Trade War May Fade Away (Business Brief No.3004)

All eyes are on the G20 Summit, in particular a talk between the US and China, the world’s superpowers, to end the trade war that will last for a year in July 2019. Looking back, it is believed that the US and China knew that they would not benefit from the persistent trade war. A clear consequence ... Read more

26 Jun 2019

International Economy

Thailand as the ASEAN Chair is pushing the conclusion of RCEP… to reboot the multilateral free trade system (Current Issue No.3001)

The ASEAN Summit 2019 ended with members agreeing to conclude the talks for the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) framework by 2019. Thailand should take this opportunity as the ASEAN Chair to act as the facilitator to bridge the differences among members to push for the success of ... Read more

13 Jun 2019

Thai Economy

2019 Mid-Year Economic Stimuli, aimed at Promoting Domestic Spending, Helped Push KR-ECI Up Slightly in May 2019

The KR-ECI increased slightly to 43.7 in May 2019 over the reading of 43.5 reported for April 2019, thanks to 2019 mid-year economic stimuli that directly and indirectly helped ease the high cost of living of Thai households somewhat. In addition, some households were less anxious about debt because... Read more

21 May 2019

Thai Economy

2019 Thai Economy May Grow Lower-than-Expected at 3.7% due to Numerous Challenges Foreseen in 2H19 (Business Brief No.3801)

The Thai economy grew at the slowest pace in 17 quarters of 2.8 percent p.a. in 1Q19, lower than the consensus estimate at 3.2 percent, dampened by shrinking exports amid a steady slowdown in the global economy and impacts of the trade war. However, domestic spending and private investment overall c... Read more

13 May 2019

Thai Economy

KR-ECI Declined in April 2019 as Many Factors Affected Living Conditions of Thai Households

The KR-ECI and 3-month Expected KR-ECI slipped to 43.5 and 45.7 in April 2019 because households were more concerned about their living conditions, including income, employment, prices of goods and services, expenditures and debt. ... Read more

8 May 2019

Thai Economy

Survey on Economic Confidence after General Election Shows that Most Thais Do Not Change their Views on Thai Economy (Current Issue No.2989)

KResearch conducted a survey on the confidence of Thai households and entrepreneurs towards the Thai economy before and after the 2019 general election on March 25 and April 3, 2019. The poll shows that Thai households and entrepreneurs surveyed have changed their views towards the Thai economy afte... Read more

7 May 2019

Thai Economy

Parents in Bangkok Metropolitan Area are expected to spend around THB28.2 billion to get their children ready for school year 2019 (Current Issue No.2986)

During the back-to-school season, consumers with school-age children normally have higher expenditures associated with their children’s education. KResearch’s survey finds that over 54.2 percent of parents are concerned about the amount of their cash flow to spend during the 2019 semester; however, ... Read more

7 May 2019

International Economy

US-China trade war escalates…the US threat to hike tariffs on Chinese goods to 25 percent disrupts Thai trade outlook again (Current Issue No.2988)

The trade talks between the US and China last week did not produce a satisfactory outcome either side. Moreover, the US President Donald Trump announced plans to further raise tariffs on USD200 billion of Chinese goods from 10 to 25 percent starting Friday, May 10. The latest move puts greater press... Read more

29 Apr 2019

International Economy

Expected slowing US economy amid weaker-than-target inflation may signal a halt in Fed interest rate increase (Business Brief No.3799)

KResearch expects the Federal Reserve to maintain the policy rate at 2.25-2.50 percent during the Federal Open Market Committee meeting on April 30-May 1, 2019. The Fed’s hint at easing monetary policy will sustain the US economic growth in the remainder of this year. During 2Q19 and 3Q19, the US e... Read more

17 Apr 2019

International Economy

Chinese economy is likely to enjoy the highest growth at 6.4% YoY in 1Q19 before decelerating in the remainder of this year (Business Brief No.3796)

Chinese economy in 1Q19 expanded 6.4 percent YoY compared to 6.6 percent growth in 2018, while exports increased only 1.0 percent YoY versus 9.9 percent in 2018. Nonetheless, the government’s stimulus policy has begun to bear fruit to support the growth momentum of the Chinese economy. The Chinese... Read more

12 Apr 2019

Thai Economy

Increased spending before the election boosts income of trading households KR-ECI up slightly in March 2019

KResearch views that issues that must be monitored closely in 2019. These include drought, which has arrived early and is expected to last longer than the previous year, because it will affect farm income and the cost of living of households resulting from higher raw food prices. Another issue is th... Read more

3 Apr 2019

Thai Economy

Songkran 2019: Spending in BKK to reach THB25 billion Hot weather affects spending lifestyle of each generation (Current Issue No.2976)

KResearch projects that during the Songkran Festival in 2019, Bangkokians will spend THB25 billion, up 3.6 percent from the previous year. Of the total, THB9.6 billion will be spent on party supplies (food and beverages), THB6.65 billion on accommodation/travel, THB4.6 billion on shopping, THB2.05 b... Read more

15 Mar 2019

International Economy

Slowing US economic indicators prompt the Fed to hint at only one rate hike in 2019 (Business Brief No.3792)

KResearch expects the US Federal Reserve (Fed) to keep the policy rates unchanged at 2.25-2.50 percent during the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on March 19-20, 2019. High external risk, slowing US economic activities and lower US inflation will prompt the Fed to hint at only one rate ... Read more

14 Mar 2019

Thai Economy

February KR-ECI Edged Up because Households Were Less Worried about Spending, Reflecting Gradual Recovery in Private Consumption

KResearch views that issues that must be monitored closely in 2019. These include drought, which has arrived early and is expected to last longer than the previous year, because it will affect farm income and the cost of living of households resulting from higher raw food prices. Another issue is th... Read more

12 Mar 2019

International Economy

Fate of Brexit: Will the UK Find Solutions before the Deadline? (Current Issue No.2973)

After British Prime Minister Theresa May sustained a parliamentary defeat as MPs rejected her Brexit plan on January 15, 2019, the UK parliament is scheduled to vote on her revised withdrawal agreement again on March 12, 2019, being the second meaningful vote on whether to leave the EU without a dea... Read more

5 Mar 2019

International Economy

All eyes on Fed meeting, imminent US/China trade deal, and domestic factors which may impact the Baht in the short (Current Issue No.2971)

The Thai Baht weakened from late February to early March, 2019 after hitting a five-year record high of THB31.07 per Dollar. The Baht traded within a range of THB31.80-THB31.85 per Dollar (as of March 5, 2019) amid varied pressures, namely domestic factors and US Dollar short-covering from many mark... Read more

18 Feb 2019

Thai Economy

Thailand Reported 3.7% GDP Growth in 4Q18 due to Easing External Risks 2019 Economic Growth Projected at 4.0% (Business Brief No.3788)

The Thai economy grew 3.7 percent YoY in 4Q18, increasing over that reported for 3Q18, thanks to easing external risks and continuing growth seen in domestic spending. The trade war continued to cause 4Q18 exports to expand at a slower pace from 3Q18. Many Asian economies were also affected by the t... Read more

13 Feb 2019

International Economy

EPA, Effective February 1, 2019, to Bolster Thai Eco/Hybrid and Parts Exports Ahead (Current Issue No.2966)

From February 1, 2019 onward, Japan’s car and auto-parts exports to the EU will enjoy gradual cuts in import tariffs under the EU-Japan Economic Partnership Agreement (EPA). KResearch views that since the EU will likely have to import more vehicles and auto-parts from Japan, Japanese carmakers may n... Read more

12 Feb 2019

Thai Economy

Economic Costs of Bangkok’s Dust Pollution Revised Upward to THB14.5 Billion (Current Issue No.2965)

The level of ultrafine dust particles exceeding safety standards in Greater Bangkok is expected to prolong until March 2019. Given this, KResearch has revised our forecast of its effect on the Thai economy in terms of opportunity costs incurred from health and tourism related issues, as well as othe... Read more

28 Jan 2019

International Economy

FED is likely to keep interest rates unchanged during its first meeting in 2019... while continuing a cautionary monetary policy in line with future economic directions. (Business Brief No.3773)

KResearch expects the Federal Reserve to keep the policy rate unchanged at 2.25-2.50 percent during its first policymaking meeting of the year from January 29-30, 2019. Although the US economy has shown signs of solid growth, risks associated with global economic uncertainty may prompt the US centra... Read more

24 Jan 2019

International Economy

EU’s Removal of “Yellow Card” Warning Improves Thai Fishing Industry’s Image…2019 Seafood Exports to EU Projected to Grow 0.0-2.0% Current Issue No.2958)

On January 8, 2019, the European Union (EU) announced to lift the so-called “Yellow Card” or warning on Thailand for our substantial progress in tackling illegal, unreported and unregulated (IUU) fishing. Although the removal helps improve the image of Thai seafood products, such exports the EU wil... Read more

22 Jan 2019

International Economy

China’s 2018 Economy Growth Hit 28-Year Low, with Heightened Risk Seen in 2019 (Business Brief No.3782)

China’s economy grew 6.6 percent in 2018, declining substantially from the 6.8 percent pace recorded in 2017. Its economy has weakened steadily, especially during 4Q18 to 6.4 percent, representing the lowest growth in 28 years. The sharp decline in 4Q18 economic performance was attributable chiefly ... Read more

16 Jan 2019

International Economy

Uncertainty persists after the UK parliament’s rejection of Theresa May’s Brexit Plan (Current Issue No.2956)

The UK parliament voted to reject the Brexit deal presented by Prime Minister Theresa May on January 14, 2019 with 432 rejecting votes and only 202 approving votes. The result marks the heaviest parliamentary defeat of a British prime minister in history. The vote results show that members of the U... Read more

16 Jan 2019

International Economy

Japan overtakes Thailand to take 3rd position in CLMV-EPI Index, with focus on service investment in CLM (CLMV-EPI)

Thailand experienced the first time of its KR CLMV Economic Presence (CLMV-EPI) Index not being among the top three ranking since the fourth quarter of 2017, replaced by Japan at the third position as affirmed by its increasing role as a large investor in CLMV. Change in Japan’s direct investment in... Read more

15 Jan 2019

Thai Economy

Economic Costs of Bangkok Air Pollution Preliminarily Estimated to be at Least THB2.6 Billion (Current Issue No.2955)

Greater Bangkok was last hit by the high level of hazardous dust particles at the end of 2017 through to the beginning of 2018. Air pollution blanketed capital again in January 2019, with the prospect of prolonged unhealthy air quality levels . This problem and the impacts of global warming or clima... Read more

11 Jan 2019

Thai Economy

KR-ECI Increased for 3 Straight Months in December 2018 Thai Households Enjoyed more Income amid Ebbing Cost of Living

• The KR-ECI conducted nationwide rose to 46.0 percent in December 2018 because some Thai households got extra income while the cost of living was declining in line with raw food prices and energy costs. • The 3-month Expected KR-ECI also increased to 47.6 in December because households spent les... Read more

20 Dec 2018

Thai Economy

2019 inflation will likely slow to 0.8% Shaped by weather conditions, energy and utility prices (Business Brief No.3778)

KResearch maintains our estimate of Headline Inflation in 2018 at 1.1 percent, compared to the 0.7-percent pace of 2017, as a result of rising energy prices and housing rents amid contracting prices of fresh food following a large quantity of supplies in the market.... Read more

14 Dec 2018

International Economy

FOMC Meeting, December 18-19, 2018: Policy Rate Hike likely while Fed’s 2019 Monetary Policy Stand Hinges on Economic Conditions (Business Brief No.3776)

We at KResearch view that the US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will likely raise its policy rate by another 0.25 percent to 2.25-2.50 percent over the current 2.00-2.25 percent at its final meeting of 2018 as it marches toward a more normal policy stance, given that the US economy has outperf... Read more

12 Dec 2018

Thai Economy

KR-ECI Up in November due to Ebbing Energy Prices

The KR-ECI and 3-month Expected KR-ECI improved in November due to ebbing energy prices and new government measures, aimed at assisting low-income earners and farmers. The KR-ECI rose to 45.7 in November over 45.3 reported for October and the 3-month Expected KR-ECI (December 2018-February 2019) cam... Read more

3 Dec 2018

International Economy

US-China trade truce to suspend imposing tariffs for 90 days eases short-term tension but impact on Thailand lingers (Current Issue No.2943)

On the sidelines of the G20 meetings in Buenos Aires, Argentina on December 1, 2018, US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping struck a temporary truce, agreeing not to increase punitive tariffs for 90 days after the G20 meetings to pave the way for negotiations to end the trade wa... Read more

19 Nov 2018

International Economy

Trade war may trigger more investment outflows from China but its benefits on Thailand will be limited to certain industries (Current Issue No.2939)

Uncertainties associated with the trade war between Washington and Beijing may prompt investors to manage their business risks by diversifying their investments from China to countries not directly affected by the trade battle. Nonetheless, direct benefits for Thailand will be limited because Thaila... Read more

19 Nov 2018

Thai Economy

3Q18 GDP growth: Lower-than-expected and lowest in 2018 due to external economic factors (Business Brief No.3772)

The Thai economy in the third quarter of 2018 expanded 3.3 percent YoY, which is the lowest recorded growth rate of this year and also lower than the market expectation of 4.1-percent growth due mainly to external economic factors. Meanwhile, there were positive signals in domestic consumption, incl... Read more

15 Nov 2018

Thai Economy

Higher Growth Potential of Public Construction in 2019, Buoyed by Mega Projects (Current Issue No.2937)

A number of infrastructure projects have exhibited satisfactory progress after the government’s announcement of an action plan to expedite large infrastructure investments in 2016-2018 with an important impetus being the Eastern Economic Corridor (EEC) program with THB trillions of investment. Compl... Read more

14 Nov 2018

Thai Economy

3-month Expected KR-ECI Improves Households Are Optimistic toward Future Income

​The 3-month Expected KR-ECI edged up slightly to 46.9 in October over 46.5 reported for September. This is because households were more optimistic toward income and employment over the next three months (November 2018 - January 2019) partly as a result of the fact that non-farm households that wi... Read more