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Economic Analysis

28 Aug 2020

Thai Economy

KResearch forecasts the Thai economy may see a U-shaped recovery with GDP shrinking by 10 percent

KASIKORN RESEARCH CENTER (KResearch) views that the Thai economy may have seen its trough in the second quarter on a QoQ basis. GDP for 2020 is projected to see a 10-percent contraction. Meanwhile, the Thai economy is likely to show a U-shaped recovery compared to the same period of last year. The f... Read more

17 Aug 2020

Thai Economy

Thai economy expected to hit its trough in 2Q20 though 2H20 still fraught with risk; effectiveness of additional relief measures remains to be seen. (Business Brief No.3880)

The Thai economy in 2Q20 shrank by -12.2 percent YoY, a lesser decline than the market expectations of -13.0 to -17.0 percent YoY, due to a resurgence in government spending and investment in 2Q20. This surge occurred amid the issuance of several stimulus packages, in particular the relief measure ... Read more

10 Aug 2020

Thai Economy

KR-ECI Declined in July 2020 as Households Were More Concerned about Debt Despite Second Phase of Assistance Measures for Borrowers

The KR-ECI stood at 35.3 in July 2020, declining from 36.0 recorded in June 2020 because households were more concerned about debt, expenses and domestic prices of goods and services. Although the Bank of Thailand’s (BOT) has introduced the second phase of assistance measures for borrowers, debt ser... Read more

10 Jul 2020

Thai Economy

Households have better outlook on their well-being over the next 3 months – first time in 7 months - reflecting the worst is now over

KR-ECI in June 2020 stood 36.0, maintaining a similar level to 36.1 in May 2020. Over the previous month, the government has exercised further relaxation of preventive measures on activities and businesses in the yellow band (Phase 3) and the red band (Phase 4), as well as the revocation of the decr... Read more

15 Jun 2020

Thai Economy

May KR-ECI Improves over that Reported in April First and Second Phases of Easing Restrictions Cause Households to be less Concerned about Income and Employment

The KR-ECI increased to 36.1 in May 2020, over 35.1 reported for April 2020 because households were less concerned about income and employment after the government gradually introduced the first and second phases of easing the country’s lockdown for businesses classified in the “White” and “Green” g... Read more

4 Jun 2020

Thai Economy

Unemployment rate in Bangkok rose to 9.6 percent in May 2020; government advised to create additional jobs (Business Brief No.3868)

KResearch conducted a survey on the well-being of Thai households in Greater Bangkok in the wake of the COVID-19 outbreak, in the period between May 21 and May 28, 2020. Following are some of the most noteworthy findings from the survey... Read more

27 May 2020

Thai Economy

2020 Back-to-School Season: Parents in Greater Bangkok to Spend Roughly THB28.26 Billion, Up Only 0.1% YoY (Current Issue No.3113)

During this time of every year, parents having school children have to set aside expenses for the new school year. These include tuition fees (for those sending their children to private and international schools), fees for education services and activities at schools, textbook, education equipment,... Read more

15 May 2020

Thai Economy

April KR-ECI Remains at Low Level as Debt Moratoriums Only Helps Ease Financial Burden Somewhat while Income and Savings Indicators Worsen

The KR-ECI came in at 35.1 in April, which was relatively low compared to the reading of 43.5 recorded during the same period last year. The April KR-ECI, however, improved over that seen in March due chiefly to the decreased debt burden of households because an increasing number of them had been g... Read more

17 Apr 2020

Thai Economy

March KR-ECI Fell for Third Consecutive Month Amid Sagging Household Savings and Income

The severe impact of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic abroad, especially in the US and Europe, plus social distancing measures to combat the viral disease, has dealt a big blow to the Thai economy and living conditions of Thai households at this time and over the next three months.... Read more

16 Mar 2020

Thai Economy

KR-ECI fell to its lowest, hitting a new low in February 2020 after COVID-19 outbreak intensified worldwide

The COVID-19 outbreak that intensified worldwide through February 2020 represents an important risk factor which is putting pressure on KR-ECI and 3-month Expected KR-ECI, falling to its lowest level in 73 months. The households surveyed expressed increasing anxieties in all aspects related to the c... Read more

13 Mar 2020

Thai Economy

WHO upgrades COVID-19 to global pandemic; effects to be felt in Thai exports (Current Issue No.3091)

The outbreak of the Corona Virus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) has spread across the world to the extent that the World Health Organization (WHO) has raised its status to that of a pandemic, which has caused the global market to decline even further. This has generated even greater risk for Thai businesse... Read more

12 Mar 2020

Thai Economy

Deflation Foreseen in 2020 if Global Crude Oil Prices Continue to Plummet (Business Brief No.3854)

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and key non-OPEC allies (collectively known as OPEC+) failed to reach an agreement to trim their oil production by another 1.5 million barrels per day (bpd) on March 6, 2020 after non-OPEC refused to support OPEC’s deeper production cuts. ... Read more

6 Mar 2020

Thai Economy

2020 Thai Economy to Grow at the Slowest Pace in 11 Years due to COVID-19 Outbreak (Business Brief No.3853)

The novel coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak is set to be severe and spread broadly around the globe after new infections outside of China, in particular South Korea, Italy and Iran have surged. So far, the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases has reached more than 90,000 in over 70 countries and territo... Read more

17 Feb 2020

Thai Economy

Thailand’s 2020 GDP Hinges on Fiscal and Monetary Policies in order to Grow 2% (Business Brief No.3850)

The Thai economic performance, which has already been plagued by the ongoing trade war, anemic global economy and severe drought in the country, is being further undermined by the current COVID-19 outbreak. Given this, Thailand’s GDP grew at less than our prior estimates at 1.6 percent p.a. during 4... Read more

12 Feb 2020

Thai Economy

KR-ECI Fell to a 6-Year Low in January 2020 COVID-19 Outbreak Steepens Risk to Cost of Living of Thai Households

The KR-ECI and 3-month Expected KR-ECI slipped to the lowest level in 72 months. The households surveyed were worried about all aspects related to the cost of living now and over the next three months, ... Read more

7 Feb 2020

Thai Economy

Thais adjust their behavior to cope with novel coronavirus outbreak, weighing in medical treatment or vaccination in their decision to resume their normal lifestyle (Current Issue No.3082)

A recent survey conducted by KResearch shows that a majority of the respondents or 66 percent of them were worried about the novel coronavirus outbreak with the epicentre in China, which has spread to other countries, including Thailand. Thais have hence paid more attention to preventive measures an... Read more

31 Jan 2020

Thai Economy

MPC Meeting, February 5, 2020: Policy Rate Cut Likely Amid New Risks (Business Brief No.3848)

New risks to the Thai economy have been seen. These include the novel coronavirus outbreak, which will likely hurt tourism receipts and a likelihood that the enforcement of the 2020 Budget Act will be delayed, thus preventing the government to use fiscal tools to fully steer the Thai economy. In ad... Read more

22 Jan 2020

Thai Economy

Escalating PM2.5 problem prompts government to speed up measures to address the problem as people pay attention to health risks (Current Issue No.3076)

The airborne PM2.5 has returned to become a serious issue since the start of 2020. The thickening smog, exceeding the standard safe level, prompted the Cabinet to approve measures to prevent and address the PM2.5 crisis on January 21, 2020. KResearch assessed the economic impacts of PM 2.5 particles... Read more

15 Jan 2020

Thai Economy

Households have worse outlook on their well-being for the next 3 months, reflecting concerns over the overall Thai economic sentiment

• KR-ECI in December 2019 stood 42.4, up from 42.0 in November 2019. Households became less worried about their income and employment, partly due to seasonal factors, namely, the annual pay raise of private companies. Additionally, prices of various agricultural produce increased, boosting the farm... Read more

13 Jan 2020

Thai Economy

Chinese Year of the Rat 2020: Bangkok Residents to Spend THB13.15 Billion with Focus Placed on Necessities (Current Issue No.3070)

We at KResearch expect that spending by Bangkok residents will reach approximately THB13.15 billion, shrinking 3.0 percent YoY, during the upcoming Chinese New Year. That amount of spending includes THB5.9 billion on votive offerings, THB3.75 billion on traveling and merit making, plus THB3.5 billio... Read more

23 Dec 2019

Thai Economy

2020 Inflation May Remain Steady at 0.7% amid Drought and Rising Daily Minimum Wage (Business Brief No.3839)

We at KResearch expect that average headline inflation may stand at 0.7 percent or within 0.4-0.9 percent in 2020, which would be at the same par as in 2019, amid risks stemming from drought and rising daily minimum wages.... Read more

19 Dec 2019

Thai Economy

New Year 2020: Bangkokians are expected to spend 29.8 billion Baht, most of them apply cautious approach (Current Issue No.3062)

KResearch expects Bangkokians to spend approximately 29.8 billion Baht during the New Year festival 2020, a contraction of 3.2 percent YoY because people want to save their money and become more cautious in their spending. Moreover, some moved up their spending plans to benefit from the stimulus mea... Read more

12 Dec 2019

Thai Economy

3-Month Expected KR-ECI Fell to 27-Month Low in November amid Heightened Concern about Future Employment

The 3-month Expected KR-ECI slipped for the second consecutive month to 42.1 in November, representing the lowest level in 27 months and declining from 43.5 reported for October. The decline was attributable to heightened concern among Thai households towards income and employment over the next thre... Read more

18 Nov 2019

Thai Economy

Thai Economy, 2019: Growing at Less than Prior Estimate of 2.8% Easing Monetary and Fiscal Policies Needed for 2020 (Business Brief No.3832)

The Thai economic performance remained lackluster in 3Q19 due to a number of factors. These include the anemic global economy, partly as a result of the prolonged trade war, while the strong Baht continued to undermine the pricing competitiveness of Thai exports amid limited growth in public and pri... Read more

12 Nov 2019

Thai Economy

KR-ECI slips in Oct 2019 amid increased households’ concerns over Thai economy

The KR-ECI in October 2019 dropped from 42.3 in September 2019 to 41.8 due to increased concerns of households over their income and employment, spending, savings and domestic product and service prices.... Read more

11 Oct 2019

Thai Economy

KR-ECI in September 19 edges up, albeit slightly Households show signs of adjusting their behavior to match their income limit

The KR-ECI in September 2019 edged up from 41.9 in August 2019 to 42.3 in September due to declining concerns of households over their expenses, savings, debt burden and domestic prices. Nonetheless, they are more worried about their income and employment. This change shows that households have adju... Read more

9 Oct 2019

Thai Economy

Households View that Phase 1 of “Chim Shop Chai” Program Helps Reduce Cost of Living, but More Assistance Measures Needed (Business Brief No.3824)

The Cabinet, September 10, 2019, approved the 1,000-Baht cash handout as part of the government’s “Chim Shop Chai (Taste Shop Use)” program to stimulate domestic tourism, effective September 27 - November 30, 2019. Currently, a large number of people has begun to spend the cash giveaway in provinces... Read more

1 Oct 2019

Thai Economy

2Q19 Household Debt to GDP Remained Static at 78.7% with Debt Growing Faster than the Economy (Business Brief No.3823)

Outstanding household debt grew at a slower pace of 5.8 percent YoY in 2Q19 after hitting a four- year high of 6.3 percent YoY reported for 1Q19 due partly to the slowdown in home loans following the enforcement of LTV measure in April 2019. Personal home loans (extended by commercial banks, special... Read more

30 Sep 2019

Thai Economy

Toxic dust particles are back in Greater Bangkok: Opportunity cost from health-related issues is estimated at THB700-800 million during the 1 -2 week period (Current Issue No.3036)

Toxic smog is back as dust particles exceeding the so-called safe level have blanketed Bangkok and its perimeter. It is a result of stagnate weather. Nonetheless, the recurrence of hazardous smog in the capital this time prompts more concerns as it seems to be more severe than the haze early this ye... Read more

24 Sep 2019

Thai Economy

Spending on Kin Jae 2019 in BKK expected at THB4.76 billion; economy prompts people to curb spending (Current Issue No.3034)

The annual Kin Jae festival is helping feed Bangkok residents’ growing appetite for vegetarian food, with the participating population rising from 57.1 percent to 66.7 percent this year, reflecting a trend towards healthier lifestyles among the new generation. People are also eating less frequently ... Read more

9 Sep 2019

Thai Economy

August KR-ECI Increased Slightly, Thanks to Ebbing Energy Costs, Rising Farm Income and Government Measures

The KR-ECI came in at 41.9 for August, increasing slightly over 41.5 reported in July because Thai households were less concerned about domestic goods and service prices amid falling energy costs. The rise was also attributable to the fact that some households were less anxious about income and empl... Read more

20 Aug 2019

Thai Economy

Thai GDP growth in 2019 may slide below initial projections of 3.1%, while external risk factors may prompt the government to implement more stimulus to boost growth (Business Brief No.3814)

Thai GDP growth in 2019 may slide below initial projections of 3.1%, while external risk factors may prompt the government to implement more stimulus to boost growth (Business Brief No.3814)... Read more

8 Aug 2019

Thai Economy

Household Concerns on Thai Economy pull KR-ECI for July 19 to 66-month low

The KR-ECI slipped for the second month in a row from 43.1 in June to 41.5 in July 2019, which is the lowest level in 66 months, owing to household concerns on all economic aspects, particularly the issues of income and employment, expenses and debt burdens.... Read more

12 Jul 2019

Thai Economy

KR-ECI Fell in June Thai Households Tighten Spending …Challenge for New Government

The KR-ECI and 3-month Expected KR-ECI slipped to 43.1 and 44.9 in June because Thai households were more concerned about economic conditions and their cost of living now and in the future, in particular domestic prices of goods, expenses (excluding debt), income and employment. ... Read more

13 Jun 2019

Thai Economy

2019 Mid-Year Economic Stimuli, aimed at Promoting Domestic Spending, Helped Push KR-ECI Up Slightly in May 2019

The KR-ECI increased slightly to 43.7 in May 2019 over the reading of 43.5 reported for April 2019, thanks to 2019 mid-year economic stimuli that directly and indirectly helped ease the high cost of living of Thai households somewhat. In addition, some households were less anxious about debt because... Read more

21 May 2019

Thai Economy

2019 Thai Economy May Grow Lower-than-Expected at 3.7% due to Numerous Challenges Foreseen in 2H19 (Business Brief No.3801)

The Thai economy grew at the slowest pace in 17 quarters of 2.8 percent p.a. in 1Q19, lower than the consensus estimate at 3.2 percent, dampened by shrinking exports amid a steady slowdown in the global economy and impacts of the trade war. However, domestic spending and private investment overall c... Read more

13 May 2019

Thai Economy

KR-ECI Declined in April 2019 as Many Factors Affected Living Conditions of Thai Households

The KR-ECI and 3-month Expected KR-ECI slipped to 43.5 and 45.7 in April 2019 because households were more concerned about their living conditions, including income, employment, prices of goods and services, expenditures and debt. ... Read more

8 May 2019

Thai Economy

Survey on Economic Confidence after General Election Shows that Most Thais Do Not Change their Views on Thai Economy (Current Issue No.2989)

KResearch conducted a survey on the confidence of Thai households and entrepreneurs towards the Thai economy before and after the 2019 general election on March 25 and April 3, 2019. The poll shows that Thai households and entrepreneurs surveyed have changed their views towards the Thai economy afte... Read more

7 May 2019

Thai Economy

Parents in Bangkok Metropolitan Area are expected to spend around THB28.2 billion to get their children ready for school year 2019 (Current Issue No.2986)

During the back-to-school season, consumers with school-age children normally have higher expenditures associated with their children’s education. KResearch’s survey finds that over 54.2 percent of parents are concerned about the amount of their cash flow to spend during the 2019 semester; however, ... Read more

12 Apr 2019

Thai Economy

Increased spending before the election boosts income of trading households KR-ECI up slightly in March 2019

KResearch views that issues that must be monitored closely in 2019. These include drought, which has arrived early and is expected to last longer than the previous year, because it will affect farm income and the cost of living of households resulting from higher raw food prices. Another issue is th... Read more

3 Apr 2019

Thai Economy

Songkran 2019: Spending in BKK to reach THB25 billion Hot weather affects spending lifestyle of each generation (Current Issue No.2976)

KResearch projects that during the Songkran Festival in 2019, Bangkokians will spend THB25 billion, up 3.6 percent from the previous year. Of the total, THB9.6 billion will be spent on party supplies (food and beverages), THB6.65 billion on accommodation/travel, THB4.6 billion on shopping, THB2.05 b... Read more

14 Mar 2019

Thai Economy

February KR-ECI Edged Up because Households Were Less Worried about Spending, Reflecting Gradual Recovery in Private Consumption

KResearch views that issues that must be monitored closely in 2019. These include drought, which has arrived early and is expected to last longer than the previous year, because it will affect farm income and the cost of living of households resulting from higher raw food prices. Another issue is th... Read more

18 Feb 2019

Thai Economy

Thailand Reported 3.7% GDP Growth in 4Q18 due to Easing External Risks 2019 Economic Growth Projected at 4.0% (Business Brief No.3788)

The Thai economy grew 3.7 percent YoY in 4Q18, increasing over that reported for 3Q18, thanks to easing external risks and continuing growth seen in domestic spending. The trade war continued to cause 4Q18 exports to expand at a slower pace from 3Q18. Many Asian economies were also affected by the t... Read more

12 Feb 2019

Thai Economy

Economic Costs of Bangkok’s Dust Pollution Revised Upward to THB14.5 Billion (Current Issue No.2965)

The level of ultrafine dust particles exceeding safety standards in Greater Bangkok is expected to prolong until March 2019. Given this, KResearch has revised our forecast of its effect on the Thai economy in terms of opportunity costs incurred from health and tourism related issues, as well as othe... Read more

15 Jan 2019

Thai Economy

Economic Costs of Bangkok Air Pollution Preliminarily Estimated to be at Least THB2.6 Billion (Current Issue No.2955)

Greater Bangkok was last hit by the high level of hazardous dust particles at the end of 2017 through to the beginning of 2018. Air pollution blanketed capital again in January 2019, with the prospect of prolonged unhealthy air quality levels . This problem and the impacts of global warming or clima... Read more

11 Jan 2019

Thai Economy

KR-ECI Increased for 3 Straight Months in December 2018 Thai Households Enjoyed more Income amid Ebbing Cost of Living

• The KR-ECI conducted nationwide rose to 46.0 percent in December 2018 because some Thai households got extra income while the cost of living was declining in line with raw food prices and energy costs. • The 3-month Expected KR-ECI also increased to 47.6 in December because households spent les... Read more

20 Dec 2018

Thai Economy

2019 inflation will likely slow to 0.8% Shaped by weather conditions, energy and utility prices (Business Brief No.3778)

KResearch maintains our estimate of Headline Inflation in 2018 at 1.1 percent, compared to the 0.7-percent pace of 2017, as a result of rising energy prices and housing rents amid contracting prices of fresh food following a large quantity of supplies in the market.... Read more

12 Dec 2018

Thai Economy

KR-ECI Up in November due to Ebbing Energy Prices

The KR-ECI and 3-month Expected KR-ECI improved in November due to ebbing energy prices and new government measures, aimed at assisting low-income earners and farmers. The KR-ECI rose to 45.7 in November over 45.3 reported for October and the 3-month Expected KR-ECI (December 2018-February 2019) cam... Read more

19 Nov 2018

Thai Economy

3Q18 GDP growth: Lower-than-expected and lowest in 2018 due to external economic factors (Business Brief No.3772)

The Thai economy in the third quarter of 2018 expanded 3.3 percent YoY, which is the lowest recorded growth rate of this year and also lower than the market expectation of 4.1-percent growth due mainly to external economic factors. Meanwhile, there were positive signals in domestic consumption, incl... Read more

15 Nov 2018

Thai Economy

Higher Growth Potential of Public Construction in 2019, Buoyed by Mega Projects (Current Issue No.2937)

A number of infrastructure projects have exhibited satisfactory progress after the government’s announcement of an action plan to expedite large infrastructure investments in 2016-2018 with an important impetus being the Eastern Economic Corridor (EEC) program with THB trillions of investment. Compl... Read more

14 Nov 2018

Thai Economy

3-month Expected KR-ECI Improves Households Are Optimistic toward Future Income

​The 3-month Expected KR-ECI edged up slightly to 46.9 in October over 46.5 reported for September. This is because households were more optimistic toward income and employment over the next three months (November 2018 - January 2019) partly as a result of the fact that non-farm households that wi... Read more