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16 Jan 2019

International Economy

Uncertainty persists after the UK parliament’s rejection of Theresa May’s Brexit Plan (Current Issue No.2956)

         The UK parliament voted to reject the Brexit deal presented by Prime Minister Theresa May on January 14, 2019 with 432 rejecting votes and only 202 approving votes. The result marks the heaviest parliamentary defeat of a British prime minister in history.  The vote results show that members of the UK parliament refuse to accept the no-deal Brexit.  KResearch views that with an option of a new round of negotiations or the second Brexit referendum, the Brexit Kickoff is likely to be postponed from the initial schedule date of March 29, 2019.

           KResearch views that uncertainties surrounding the Brexit process may create short-term volatility in the financial market.  Nonetheless, the market has anticipated that the no-deal Brexit has now become less possible and such anticipation has lessened negative factors against the UK economic system. Regarding the macro-economy, it's expected that there will be a deceleration of the UK's consumer spending decisions and gross domestic product and the weaker pound sterling will affect Thai exports to the UK.  Hence, KResearch forecasts that Thai exports to the UK in 2019 will expand between 1.8 and 2.1 percent if the solution for Brexit begins taking shape in the first half of this year.  Therefore, the latest Brexit development is likely to have short-term consequences mainly on the financial market and currency exchange rate. 


International Economy