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Economic Analysis

9 Oct 2019

International Economy

Vietnam’s Automotive Industry is Thriving despite over 46% of Cars Imported from Thailand (Current Issue No.3038)

Vietnam’s automotive industry is set to grow substantially over the next 5-7 years and this will likely attract additional investments in its car production. Although Vietnam is far behind other ASEAN member states in many aspects, in particular its car production, KResearch views that its car produ... Read more

20 Sep 2019

International Economy

China’s Central Bank (PBOC) plans for its own digital currency to counter dollar dominance and money laundering (Business Brief No.3820)

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) has announced a plan to release its own central bank digital currency (CBDC) with an aim to increase the role of the Chinese Yuan on the world market and to combat money laundering. The new currency will be retail CBDC that Chinese can use in lieu of cash. It will ... Read more

16 Sep 2019

International Economy

High Global Crude Oil Prices following Saudi Oil Attacks May Bolster 2019 Inflation by 0.3% (Business Brief No.3818)

Drone attacks on Saudi Arabia’s two major oil refineries on Saturday, September 14, 2019 have driven up Brent crude oil price in the futures market by almost 12 percent. The incident has sparked fears among investors worldwide over oil supply disruption because Saudi Arabia is the world’s largest oi... Read more

16 Sep 2019

International Economy

The Fed meeting on Sept 17-18, 2019 is expected to slash policy rates: Keep a close watch on the Fed’s new policy direction (Business Brief No.3817)

KResearch expects the US Federal Reserve to cut rates by a quarter of a percentage point from 2.00-2.25 percent to 1.75-2.00 percent during the Federal Market Open Committee (FOMC)’s meeting on September 17-18, 2019. The key US economic indicators, especially manufacturing output and employment, con... Read more

5 Sep 2019

International Economy

Renewed Trade War Forces Companies to Move Production Out of China…Thailand’s Potential to Lure New Investments May Be Limited (Current Issue No.3028)

The intensifying US-China trade dispute in terms of the value of goods subject to their import tariffs and magnitude of their import tariff hikes may shave Thai exports by approximately USD3 billion in 2019, against the USD2.4 billion projected before. ... Read more

15 Aug 2019

International Economy

Inversion of the US treasury yield signals risks that the US economy may be heading for recession (Current Issue No.3022)

The inverted yield curve -- where the US 2-year note yield has risen above the benchmark 10-year yield for the first time 12 years – is fueling fears that the global economy may be heading for recession in the next 12 months. This is because the inverted yield curve is an indicator which has correct... Read more

7 Aug 2019

International Economy

From trade war to currency war… Thai authorities must be prepared (Current Issue No.3016)

The People's Bank of China allowed its currency to fall below 7 Yuan to the US Dollar for the first time in 11 years after the US announced last week that it would slap a 10 percent tariff on USD300 billion of Chinese goods. The latest move by Beijing signals its readiness to retaliate against the U... Read more

6 Aug 2019

International Economy

US Labeling of China as “Currency Manipulator” Sends Regional Currencies Reeling (Current Issue No.3034)

The trade war between the US and China has spread to a battle over currencies. Previously, their conflicts were limited to tariffs and international trade. Recently, the US Treasury Department accused China of “manipulating its currency”, representing a more aggressive move after China let the Yuan ... Read more

2 Aug 2019

International Economy

US decision to impose tariff on additional Chinese goods…Damage to Thailand increases to USD2.4 billion (Current Issue No.3013)

US President Donald Trump eventually announced an additional 10 percent tariff on the remaining USD300 billion of Chinese imports, effective September 1, 2019, due mainly to the slow progress in the trade talks. In particular, Beijing is bargaining for conditions which are difficult to be achievable... Read more

1 Aug 2019

International Economy

Fed Lowers Policy Rate, But the Baht Weakens Against the Greenback (Current Issue No.3012)

As expected, the Federal Reserve (Fed) slashed its policy rate for the first time in over 10 years to a range of 2.00-2.25 percent at its meeting, July 30-31, 2019. However, no signs of another policy rate cut have been seen from the Fed Chair. The outcome of the latest FOMC meeting has disappoint... Read more

25 Jul 2019

International Economy

Fed meeting on July 30-31, 2019 is expected to cut interest rate to sustain the US economic recovery (Business Brief No.3811)

KResearch expects the US Federal Reserve to cut the interest rates by 0.25 percent percentage point from 2.25-2.50 percent to 2.00-2.25 percent. Moreover, the Fed is likely to announce to end the balance sheet reduction before the initial schedule to ensure the continuity of the US economic expansio... Read more

17 Jul 2019

International Economy

Chinese economy in 2Q19 registers slowest growth rate in 27 years (Business Brief No.3808)

China's economic growth in 2Q19 grew at 6.2 percent, the slowest growth rate in 27 years and down from 6.4 percent in 1Q19. Consequently, China’s gross domestic product in 1H19 rose only 6.3 percent. The slump is a result of a fall in the global and domestic demands. Moreover, the prolonged trade wa... Read more

28 Jun 2019

International Economy

G20 Summit: Hopes to End Trade War May Fade Away (Business Brief No.3004)

All eyes are on the G20 Summit, in particular a talk between the US and China, the world’s superpowers, to end the trade war that will last for a year in July 2019. Looking back, it is believed that the US and China knew that they would not benefit from the persistent trade war. A clear consequence ... Read more

26 Jun 2019

International Economy

Thailand as the ASEAN Chair is pushing the conclusion of RCEP… to reboot the multilateral free trade system (Current Issue No.3001)

The ASEAN Summit 2019 ended with members agreeing to conclude the talks for the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) framework by 2019. Thailand should take this opportunity as the ASEAN Chair to act as the facilitator to bridge the differences among members to push for the success of ... Read more

7 May 2019

International Economy

US-China trade war escalates…the US threat to hike tariffs on Chinese goods to 25 percent disrupts Thai trade outlook again (Current Issue No.2988)

The trade talks between the US and China last week did not produce a satisfactory outcome either side. Moreover, the US President Donald Trump announced plans to further raise tariffs on USD200 billion of Chinese goods from 10 to 25 percent starting Friday, May 10. The latest move puts greater press... Read more

29 Apr 2019

International Economy

Expected slowing US economy amid weaker-than-target inflation may signal a halt in Fed interest rate increase (Business Brief No.3799)

KResearch expects the Federal Reserve to maintain the policy rate at 2.25-2.50 percent during the Federal Open Market Committee meeting on April 30-May 1, 2019. The Fed’s hint at easing monetary policy will sustain the US economic growth in the remainder of this year. During 2Q19 and 3Q19, the US e... Read more

17 Apr 2019

International Economy

Chinese economy is likely to enjoy the highest growth at 6.4% YoY in 1Q19 before decelerating in the remainder of this year (Business Brief No.3796)

Chinese economy in 1Q19 expanded 6.4 percent YoY compared to 6.6 percent growth in 2018, while exports increased only 1.0 percent YoY versus 9.9 percent in 2018. Nonetheless, the government’s stimulus policy has begun to bear fruit to support the growth momentum of the Chinese economy. The Chinese... Read more

15 Mar 2019

International Economy

Slowing US economic indicators prompt the Fed to hint at only one rate hike in 2019 (Business Brief No.3792)

KResearch expects the US Federal Reserve (Fed) to keep the policy rates unchanged at 2.25-2.50 percent during the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on March 19-20, 2019. High external risk, slowing US economic activities and lower US inflation will prompt the Fed to hint at only one rate ... Read more

12 Mar 2019

International Economy

Fate of Brexit: Will the UK Find Solutions before the Deadline? (Current Issue No.2973)

After British Prime Minister Theresa May sustained a parliamentary defeat as MPs rejected her Brexit plan on January 15, 2019, the UK parliament is scheduled to vote on her revised withdrawal agreement again on March 12, 2019, being the second meaningful vote on whether to leave the EU without a dea... Read more

5 Mar 2019

International Economy

All eyes on Fed meeting, imminent US/China trade deal, and domestic factors which may impact the Baht in the short (Current Issue No.2971)

The Thai Baht weakened from late February to early March, 2019 after hitting a five-year record high of THB31.07 per Dollar. The Baht traded within a range of THB31.80-THB31.85 per Dollar (as of March 5, 2019) amid varied pressures, namely domestic factors and US Dollar short-covering from many mark... Read more

13 Feb 2019

International Economy

EPA, Effective February 1, 2019, to Bolster Thai Eco/Hybrid and Parts Exports Ahead (Current Issue No.2966)

From February 1, 2019 onward, Japan’s car and auto-parts exports to the EU will enjoy gradual cuts in import tariffs under the EU-Japan Economic Partnership Agreement (EPA). KResearch views that since the EU will likely have to import more vehicles and auto-parts from Japan, Japanese carmakers may n... Read more

28 Jan 2019

International Economy

FED is likely to keep interest rates unchanged during its first meeting in 2019... while continuing a cautionary monetary policy in line with future economic directions. (Business Brief No.3773)

KResearch expects the Federal Reserve to keep the policy rate unchanged at 2.25-2.50 percent during its first policymaking meeting of the year from January 29-30, 2019. Although the US economy has shown signs of solid growth, risks associated with global economic uncertainty may prompt the US centra... Read more

22 Jan 2019

International Economy

China’s 2018 Economy Growth Hit 28-Year Low, with Heightened Risk Seen in 2019 (Business Brief No.3782)

China’s economy grew 6.6 percent in 2018, declining substantially from the 6.8 percent pace recorded in 2017. Its economy has weakened steadily, especially during 4Q18 to 6.4 percent, representing the lowest growth in 28 years. The sharp decline in 4Q18 economic performance was attributable chiefly ... Read more

16 Jan 2019

International Economy

Uncertainty persists after the UK parliament’s rejection of Theresa May’s Brexit Plan (Current Issue No.2956)

The UK parliament voted to reject the Brexit deal presented by Prime Minister Theresa May on January 14, 2019 with 432 rejecting votes and only 202 approving votes. The result marks the heaviest parliamentary defeat of a British prime minister in history. The vote results show that members of the U... Read more

16 Jan 2019

International Economy

Japan overtakes Thailand to take 3rd position in CLMV-EPI Index, with focus on service investment in CLM (CLMV-EPI)

Thailand experienced the first time of its KR CLMV Economic Presence (CLMV-EPI) Index not being among the top three ranking since the fourth quarter of 2017, replaced by Japan at the third position as affirmed by its increasing role as a large investor in CLMV. Change in Japan’s direct investment in... Read more

14 Dec 2018

International Economy

FOMC Meeting, December 18-19, 2018: Policy Rate Hike likely while Fed’s 2019 Monetary Policy Stand Hinges on Economic Conditions (Business Brief No.3776)

We at KResearch view that the US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will likely raise its policy rate by another 0.25 percent to 2.25-2.50 percent over the current 2.00-2.25 percent at its final meeting of 2018 as it marches toward a more normal policy stance, given that the US economy has outperf... Read more

3 Dec 2018

International Economy

US-China trade truce to suspend imposing tariffs for 90 days eases short-term tension but impact on Thailand lingers (Current Issue No.2943)

On the sidelines of the G20 meetings in Buenos Aires, Argentina on December 1, 2018, US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping struck a temporary truce, agreeing not to increase punitive tariffs for 90 days after the G20 meetings to pave the way for negotiations to end the trade wa... Read more

19 Nov 2018

International Economy

Trade war may trigger more investment outflows from China but its benefits on Thailand will be limited to certain industries (Current Issue No.2939)

Uncertainties associated with the trade war between Washington and Beijing may prompt investors to manage their business risks by diversifying their investments from China to countries not directly affected by the trade battle. Nonetheless, direct benefits for Thailand will be limited because Thaila... Read more

7 Nov 2018

International Economy

US Midterm Election Results ... sending only weak economic stimulation amid ongoing trade war (Current Issue No.2935)

At present, the fast-paced business world is fuelled largely by digital disruption. The tourism and hospitality business is one of the industries that has experienced a rapid evolution in the past decade, with Online Travel Agencies (OTAs) emerging to become a force to be reckoned with. The OT... Read more

31 Oct 2018

International Economy

FOMC Meeting, September 7-8: Fed Continues to Signal More Rate Increases…Watch Out for Factors Affecting Rate Hike Timing in 2019 (Business Brief No.3770)

We at KResearch expect that the FOMC will resolve to keep its policy rate intact at 2.00-2.25 percent at the upcoming meeting slated for September 7-8, 2018 before raising the Fed Funds rate by another 0.25 percent at the final meeting of this year. Factors supporting the path of Fed’s monetary poli... Read more

19 Oct 2018

International Economy

Chinese Economy Slowed in 3Q18 Despite Accelerated Exports and Easing Monetary Policy…Watch Out for Challenges that May Further Hurt Growth in 2019 (Business Brief No.3767)

China’s economic growth slipped to 6.5 percent YoY in 3Q18, representing a record low since 2009. The decelerated growth was attributable to steady drop in its industrial production amid the country’s trade dispute, which is expected to escalate ahead, plus persistent sluggishness seen in household ... Read more

10 Oct 2018

International Economy

Fed rate, oil prices and regional currencies are 3 factors weakening Thai Baht late this year (Current Issue No.2931)

It is apparent that the Thai currency and the Thai government bond yields - especially the long-term bond yields - have begun to ostensibly “swing” in the last quarter of the year. The Thai Baht weakened to touch THB33.10 against the greenback on October 9 (when the net sales of equities and bonds b... Read more

21 Sep 2018

International Economy

Fed Meeting, Sep 25-26 ... Expected Rate Increase of 0.25% ... Intensified Trade Conflicts to be Watched (Business Brief No.3760)

KResearch expects the Federal Reserve (Fed) will raise the policy interest rate by 0.25 percent from 1.75-2.00 percent to 2.00-2.25 percent in its meeting slated for September 25-26, 2018. The Fed will also likely announce an increase in its balance sheet normalization process to the maximu... Read more

16 Aug 2018

International Economy

Turkish Currency Crisis…Limited Impacts on Thai Financial Sector (Current Issue No. 2924)

Financial markets worldwide are keeping close watch on possible risks and impacts that may be caused by the Turkish Lira crisis. Although the Lira has picked up somewhat (after hitting a historical low at 7.2362/USD on August 13), it will likely face many sell-offs ahead amid limited tools/resource... Read more

15 Aug 2018

International Economy

Closely watch Turkish currency crisis … Lira meltdown can put Eurozone economies at risk (Current Issue No. 2923)

In 2018, the Turkish economy is facing pressures from all sides amid risks threatening its economic stability such as the Federal Reserve interest rate hike, which accelerates fund outflows and continuously and quickly increases borrowing costs. An increasing oil price and weaker Turkish lira have c... Read more

26 Jul 2018

International Economy

FED is likely to maintain the interest rate at 1.75-2.00% at its meeting on July 31-August 1, 18...close attention to trade dispute (Business Brief No.3754)

KResearch expects the Federal Reserve (Fed) to hold the policy rates steady at 1.75-2.00 percent during the fifth round of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting this year. The risk factor - that may disrupt the path of the US economic recovery in the remainder of this year - is still the ... Read more

26 Jul 2018

International Economy

Trade War Likely to be Prolonged in 2019 … Possibly Affecting Thai Exports at 0.5%-0.6% of GDP (Current Issue No. 2922)

In 2018, the trade war provoked by the US may not produce significant repercussions on Thailand, given that the measures to impose new tariffs on solar panels, large washing machines, iron and aluminum since the beginning of the year has not involved considerable value. Despite, the first round of n... Read more

19 Jul 2018

International Economy

A Record-Low Yuan May Pressure Other Asian Currencies (Current Issue No. 2920)

From the beginning of 2018 to July 19, the Yuan weakened by more than 3.5 percent against the US Dollar, representing a new record low of CNY6.73/USD. Factors contributing to a rapid softening of the Yuan over the past few months include heightened risks stemming from the US-China trade war, which h... Read more

17 Jul 2018

International Economy

China achieved 6.7% economic growth in 2Q18…with challenge of long-term stability given prolonged trade disputes (Business Brief No.3751)

While China’s government policies have constrained growth in some economic sectors, its GDP report for 2Q18 indicated ongoing growth overall, reaching 6.7 percent YoY compared to the 6.8-percent pace reported for 1Q18. Considering growth components, the factors pressuring economic growth include the... Read more

11 Jun 2018

International Economy

Fed is expected to raise the policy rate by 0.25% during the meeting on June 12-13 supported by continuing expansion of the US economy (Business Brief No.3746)

KResearch expects the Federal Reserve (Fed) to raise its policy rate by 0.25 percentage points from 1.50-1.75 percent to 1.75-2.00 percent during the fourth round of the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting this year on June 12-13, 2018. A solid expansion of the US economy and the f... Read more

4 Jun 2018

International Economy

New context of Malaysian economy after“2018 poll: Closely watch major shift in economic policy amid fragile economic fundamentals (Current Issue No. 2913)

The economic policies recently announced by newly-elected Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad mark a major shift from those under the ousted Barisan Nasional government, especially the country’s policies on large-scale infrastructure investments. On May 28, 2018, Prime Minister Mahathir announ... Read more

25 May 2018

International Economy

China begins cutting tariffs to ease trade tensions with the US, but uncertainty lingers (Current Issue No. 2911)

Finally, China and the US have reached a compromise to ease trade tensions. Recently, Beijing announced that it will cut tariffs on imported passenger cars from 25 to 15 percent and auto parts from 10 to 6 percent, effective July 1, 2018. Looking forward, China is set to announce a string of measure... Read more

27 Apr 2018

International Economy

Fed Policy Rate Expected to Remain at 1.50-.175 in May Meeting…Continued Rise in US Bond Yield to be Monitored (Business Brief No.3739)

KResearch expects the Federal Reserve (Fed) will resolve to maintain its policy interest rate at 1.50-1.75 percent in its third meeting of this year, in awaiting to assess further developments of the US economy and risks arising from trade disputes. Given the US attempts to minimize their trade defi... Read more

19 Apr 2018

International Economy

China’s economy may slow after robust growth in 1Q18 (Business Brief No.3736)

In KResearch’s view, China’s economy may slow over the remainder of 2018, along with exports that will likely weaken as well, amid full-year growth that is expected to reach 6.6 percent YoY. Because accelerated shipments were already transacted before the effectiveness of new tariff rates per Sectio... Read more

23 Mar 2018

International Economy

Little impact expected on China from US trade measures but watchful for Thailand (Current Issue No. 2906)

US President Donald Trump has signed an executive memorandum to slap tariffs worth USD60 billion on Chinese exports, reasoning that China has infringed on US intellectual property per Section 301 Anchorof the 1974 Trade Act. Although this round of trade measures is the most serious so far against f... Read more

16 Mar 2018

International Economy

FOMC Meeting, March 20-21: Another 0.25% Rate Hike Likely, Watch Out for First Signal from New Fed Chair Powell (Business Brief No.3731)

We at KResearch expect that the US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will increase its key policy rate by another 0.25 percent to 1.50-1.75 percent at the second meeting of 2018 slated for March 20-21, given that the US economy has grown beyond its potential. Looking ahead, there is a likelihood ... Read more

14 Mar 2018

International Economy

Thailand must brace for trade disputes between the US, EU and China, etc. (Current Issue No. 2905)

The US is pressing ahead with trade measures against trade partners globally. In addition to their new ‘safeguard tariffs’ on imported solar panels and large washing machines imposed early in 2018, and more recently on imported steel and aluminum, the US is now preparing to implement protectionist m... Read more

6 Mar 2018

International Economy

China’s 2018 Economic Targets Reflect Slower Economic Growth, while Monetary and Fiscal Policies are Still Being Used to Sustain Economic Growth Ahead (Business Brief No.3730)

All eyes were on the National People’s Congress, March 5, 2018, because the ruling Communist Party proposed constitutional a... Read more

2 Mar 2018

International Economy

Planned New US Tariffs on Metal Imports Triggering More Intense Trade Protectionism (Current Issue No. 2903)

Throughout 2018, the US administration’s continual pursuit of protectionist trade measures has tended to increase volatility in global trade. Most recently, President Donald Trump announced that new “safeguard” tariffs would be imposed on steel and aluminum imports at 25 percent and 10 percent, resp... Read more

26 Jan 2018

International Economy

Fed Meeting Expected to Maintain Rate Leaving Room for Increasing Rate Later (Business Brief No.3725)

KResearch expects the US Federal Reserve (Fed) to maintain their policy rate at 1.25-1.50 percent during their first round of meeting o... Read more

26 Dec 2017

International Economy

The Philippines: Rising Market of ASEAN (Current Issue No. 2887 Full Ed.)

Thai exports to ASEAN-5 (Malaysia, Singapore, Indonesia, the Philippines and Brunei) account for 59.3 percent of our total exports to the entire AS... Read more

19 Dec 2017

International Economy

Chinese Economy Continues Momentum to Yearend Growth next year inches toward balance, Focus on Reforms (Business Brief No.3719)

China's latest economic indicators show that the Chinese economy has maintained momentum. Although China’s domestic eco... Read more