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Economic Analysis

18 Jan 2021

International Economy

2020 China’s GDP grew beyond projection at 2.3%; 2021 growth forecast at 8.0-8.5% with emphasis on qualitative growth and circular economy (Business Brief No.3907)

The economy of China in 4Q20 grew by 6.5 percent YoY, amounting to full-year growth that exceeded the projection, at 2.3 percent YoY. The figures reflect China’s success in efficiently controlling the COVID-19 pandemic and implementing both monetary and fiscal stimuli in a timely and effective manne... Read more

28 Dec 2020

International Economy

Brexit deal: Historic agreement that eases economic tensions amid COVID-19 pandemic (Current Issue No.3176)

Four years have passed since the United Kingdom held a referendum in which the majority voted to withdraw from the European Union (EU), on June 23, 2016. The UK and the EU have finally concluded their negotiations over the Brexit deal prior to the end of the transition period on December 31, 2020. G... Read more

22 Dec 2020

International Economy

Vietnam Will Likely be Able to Maintain Competitiveness Despite Strengthening Dong (Current Issue No.3172)

In the latest currency manipulation report published by the US Department of the Treasury in December 2020, Vietnam was designated as a currency manipulator because it fulfilled three benchmarks set by the US. These include an intervention in the currency-exchange market as evidenced by Vietnam’s ne... Read more

9 Dec 2020

International Economy

Baht set to strengthen even as Fed stalls QE at FOMC on Dec.15-16, 2020 (Business Brief No.3899)

KResearch projects that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will keep the US policy rate within the range of 0.00-0.25%, and it is unlikely that the Fed will announce any additional tools for quantitative easing (QE) at the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting to be held on December 15-16, 2020. ... Read more

19 Nov 2020

International Economy

RCEP Set to be Enforced, but Close Attention Must be Paid to the US Stance, which Could Affect Thailand Ahead (Current Issue No.3162)

Presently, Thailand is already a member of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), which is the world’s largest free trade agreement (FTA). This is most welcome news because the RCEP will likely help enhance Thailand’s competitiveness over the short term, although the country’s long-... Read more

13 Nov 2020

International Economy

All eyes on RCEP: the world’s largest free trade framework and Thailand’s most comprehensive FTA (Current Issue No.3159)

The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership, or RCEP, comprises 15 member states, namely the 10 ASEAN countries and their Plus 5 which consists of China, Japan, South Korea, Australia and New Zealand. RCEP member states were finally able to wrap up their longstanding negotiations, which had been... Read more

4 Nov 2020

International Economy

2020 US election results set to benefit Thai products (Current Issue No.3158)

Preliminarily, products and businesses with ties to the US market will likely benefit from this historic election after braving the COVID-19 crisis this year, setting them on the path towards economic recovery in 2021. Indeed, the degree of recovery depends on the policies under the new president wh... Read more

3 Nov 2020

International Economy

US Presidential Election Results: US Economy Set to Recover Faster and US Dollar May Weaken if Biden Wins as Expected (Business Brief No.3894)

Various polls and projections all show that Joe Biden, the democratic presidential candidate, will win the 2020 US presidential election on November 3, 2020. Biden’s victory and the Democrats’ domination in both the House of Representatives and Senate would be a boon for the overall US economy as th... Read more

30 Oct 2020

International Economy

FOMC Meeting, November 4-5, 2020: Policy Rate Likely to Remain at 0.0-0.25%, But US Presidential Election Results May Affect Fed’s Future Policy Stance (Business Brief No.3893)

We at KResearch assess that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will likely keep its policy rate steady at 0.0-0.25 percent during its FOMC meeting slated for November 4-5, 2020 because the US economy has begun to rebound, thus lessening its pressure to cut the Fed Funds rate further. In addition, the Fed ... Read more

22 Oct 2020

International Economy

2020 US Presidential Election: Uncertainties Likely to Persist Until Inauguration Day, January 20, 2021 (Current Issue No.3150)

Special attention is being paid to the 2020 US presidential election, in particular visions and policy guidelines of presidential candidates to revive the US economy as the country is battling the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. KResearch is of the view that if Joe Biden, who is leading in the US e... Read more

19 Oct 2020

International Economy

China’s 3Q20 GDP grew 4.9% YoY, with 2020 growth projected at 1.7% amid numerous risks (Business Brief No.3891)

The Chinese economy in 3Q20 grew 4.9 percent YoY, continuing the positive trend from 2Q20, which saw 3.2 percent growth YoY. This expansion can be attributed to the gradual recovery experienced by the private sector, particularly domestic tourism activities that have only recently regained their vi... Read more

23 Sep 2020

International Economy

All eyes are on fluctuations in commodity prices...in light of China’s stockpiling policy (Current Issue No.3140)

In September 2020, China sent a positive signal in regard to its economic development plan that laid out the country’s strategies for the next five years, from 2021 through 2025. Of particular interest is China’s return to stockpiling commodities with an emphasis on food security. Such actions will ... Read more

14 Sep 2020

International Economy

Fed set to keep interest rates in a range of 0-0.25% at FOMC meeting Sep. 15-16, having passed a resolution to adjust long-term inflation in the previous month (Business Brief No.3884)

KResearch has assessed that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will continue to keep interest rates in a range of 0.0-0.25 percent at the next Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting which will be held on September 15-16, as the Fed is thought to have already used all the tools necessary to sustain the ... Read more

10 Sep 2020

International Economy

Drafting of the UK’s Internal Market Bill set to trigger no-deal Brexit by the end of 2020 (Current Issue No.3133)

Ever since the results of the EU Referendum on June 23, 2016, led to the planned withdrawal of the United Kingdom from the EU, the event that all parties concerned have hoped for is a negotiation to finalize the economic and trade relations between the UK and the EU going forward. However, after th... Read more

2 Sep 2020

International Economy

Fed’s flexible inflation policy reinvigorates the US capital market but may produce volatility for financial markets in the future once inflation returns (Business Brief No.3882)

Mr. Jerome Powell, the US Federal Reserve chairman, announced a major monetary policy shift at the latest Jackson Hole conference (August 27, 2020). The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) reached a unanimous decision in approving longer-run goals and monetary policy strategy adjustment. The shift ... Read more

24 Jul 2020

International Economy

Fed expected to maintain interest rate at 0.0-0.25% at meeting on Jul. 28-29 – present situation still does not warrant issuance of additional policy measures (Business Brief No.3878)

KResearch projects that the Fed will continue to maintain the interest rate at 0.0-0.25 percent at its upcoming monetary policy meeting on July 28-29, 2020. The measures that have already been taken should be sufficient to sustain the US economy, which is weakening and will likely take a long time t... Read more

17 Jul 2020

International Economy

US eliminates Hong Kong’s special status, rekindling the flames of the US-China trade war prior to 2020 US election (Current Issue No.3124)

Over the course of the past two years that have been dominated by the US-China trade war, the US has been unable to reduce its trade deficit with China to the targeted level. Shifting the focus to Thailand, Thai export businesses incurred a net loss of USD 1.1 billion in related products. ... Read more

17 Jul 2020

International Economy

Effective Control of COVID-19 Pandemic Helps Support 2Q20 Chinese Economy to Grow Faster than Expected at 3.2% YoY (Business Brief No.3875)

The Chinese economy reverted to growth of 3.2 percent YoY in 2Q20, versus the 6.8 percent YoY contraction reported for 1Q20, thanks to the government’s effective measures in combating the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, thus allowing economic activity in the country to return to normalcy. Its indus... Read more

9 Jun 2020

International Economy

Fed to Keep Policy Rate Steady at 0.0-0.25% during June 9-10 Meeting Amid Heightened Economic Risk (Business Brief No.3870)

The US economy continues to experience increased risk despite recovering signs seen after Washington began easing lockdown measures in May 2020. The US Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) came in at 43.1 in May, rising over the 41.5 reported for April while unemployment slipped to 13.3 percent in May, ... Read more

7 May 2020

International Economy

Opportunities and Challenges of ASEAN Amid Transformation of Supply Chains Post COVID-19 (Current Issue No.3108)

A majority of ASEAN member states overall may experience fragile supply chains as a result of their dependency on imports of intermediate products from sources that are highly competitive in terms of costs, namely China, plus technologies from countries that own advanced technologies, such as South ... Read more

27 Apr 2020

International Economy

Fed expected to keep interest rates at 0.0-0.25% in the meeting of 28-29 April; negative rates seen as unnecessary for now (Business Brief No.3863)

The US economy is experiencing markedly elevated risk from the spread of COVID-19. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) projects that the US economy in 2020 may contract by 5.9 percent, a decline comparable in severity to that of the Great Depression in 1930. The US economy severely contracted afte... Read more

22 Apr 2020

International Economy

CLMV’s economic growth crashes to two-decade low due to COVID-19; worst effects among countries more dependent on foreign income (Current Issue No.3100)

The COVID-19 pandemic is having a negative impact on CLMV economies through their dependency on foreign-sourced revenue from tourism and exports. Countries which are heavily dependent on foreign revenue are facing more negative effects during this crisis.... Read more

17 Apr 2020

International Economy

Chinese economy in 1Q20 contracted for the first time since record-keeping began; 1-3% growth expected through 2020 (Business Brief No.3861)

The Chinese economy contracted by 6.8 percent (YoY) in 1Q20, marking the first time that the Chinese economy has experienced a contraction since statistical reports began in 1992. The main reason for this phenomenon is the stringent COVID-19 disease control and prevention measures issued by the Chin... Read more

3 Apr 2020

International Economy

Governments worldwide boost economies through biggest stimulus packages on record in wake of COVID-19 Pandemic (Business Brief No.3854)

The novel coronavirus or COVID-19 pandemic continues to grow in severity, with most parts of the world seeing no signs of easing or control of viral spread in the near future. The pandemic has plunged the world economy into a state of higher negative risk, as it enters a recession this year. Governm... Read more

4 Mar 2020

International Economy

Fed Makes Emergency Rate Cut by 0.50% to 1.00-1.25%...More Reductions Likely to Combat COVID-19 Fallout (Business Brief No.3852)

The Federal Reserve (Fed) trimmed its policy rate by 0.50 percent to 1.00-1.25 percent at an emergency meeting, March 3, 2020. The move suggests that the Fed has a more “negative” view towards the impact of the COVID-19 on household and business spending, plus the US economy overall, prompting it to... Read more

19 Feb 2020

International Economy

Competitiveness of Thai products in CLMV Begins to Decline…Product and Service Improvements Needed (KR CLMV Economic Presence Index Analysis)

The competiveness of Thai exports to CLMV has trended lower compared to dynamic exports of other Southeast Asian countries. Export share of other Southeast Asian countries in CLMV surged to over 50 percent in 2019, increasing from just 17 percent reported for 2018 or within only three years. The de... Read more

30 Jan 2020

International Economy

Novel coronavirus outbreak… causes at least 300 billion Yuan economic impact on 2020 Chinese economy in 1 month (Business Brief No.3847)

The transmission of the 2019 Novel Coronavirus (n-CoV) continues to escalate, prompting the Chinese authorities to take extreme measures to prevent the virus from spreading. For example, they locked down 18 cities in Hubei province by closing off access to the cities and transportation in the provi... Read more

27 Jan 2020

International Economy

Fed May Keep Policy Rate Unchanged in 1Q20, But Additional Rat Cuts Likely Prior to Presidential Election in November 2020 (Business Brief No.3846)

We at KResearch view that improving signs seen in the US economy overall will continue to provide the Fed room to keep its policy rate steady at least until 1Q20. However, the US manufacturing sector has not substantially recovery despite the signing of the first phase of a broader trade pact betwee... Read more

17 Jan 2020

International Economy

China's economic growth in 2019 records a 29-year low… weak momentum to continue in 2020 (Business Brief No.3844)

China’s economy, in 4Q19, slowed from the previous quarter to grow 6.0 percent YoY, driven by positive factors from the latest development of the US trade conflict with China. The partial agreement was attributed to the turnaround of China’s export and manufacturing sectors in 4Q19 with acceleration... Read more

16 Jan 2020

International Economy

Eyeing US-China Phase 1 Trade Deal…Terms of Trade Pact Will Likely Be Dictated by US Politics (Current Issue No.3072)

The US-China phase 1 trade pact was officially inked on January 15, 2020, lifting hopes that their 2-year tensions could ease. However, the US and China will continue to experience higher tariffs, in particular China, as some of its exports to US are still subject to additional tariffs at the rate o... Read more

6 Jan 2020

International Economy

Monetary policy facing constraints… amid a recent jump in oil prices due to mounting US-Iran conflicts (Business Brief No.3842)

The US-Iran tensions have ramped up after General Qasem Soleimani, the Iran’s top commander, was killed in Baghdad on January 3, 2020, shooting up the international benchmark Brent crude on January 6, 2020 by 7 percent as compared to the level registered at the end of 2019. This conflict is being cl... Read more

13 Dec 2019

International Economy

UK Election 2019: Tories’ victory will unlock Brexit hurdle in the short run, but there are other challenges ahead (Current Issue No.3061)

The preliminary result of the UK election on December 12, 2019 shows that Boris Johnson's Conservative party has secured a majority, and he will remain prime minister. Moreover, the Conservative party has gained a comfortable majority, winning 364 seats (of the total 650 seats) in the House of Commo... Read more

9 Dec 2019

International Economy

FOMC Meeting, December 10-11, 2019: Fed Signals to Keep Policy Rate Steady…No End to Interest Rate Cut in Sight (Business Brief No.3836)

KResearch expects that the US Federal Open Market Committee (FOCM) will likely resolve to keep its policy rate unchanged pending an economic assessment while also unveiling its new economic growth and interest rate forecasts at the final meeting of 2019. We expect that the Fed may maintain its 2020... Read more

25 Oct 2019

International Economy

FOMC Meeting, October 29-30, 2019: Fed Funds Rate Likely be Shaved by another 0.25% as Trade War Begins to Hurt Consumption (Business Brief No.3828)

We at KResearch expect that the US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) may cut its policy rate by another 0.25 percent at its meeting scheduled for October 29-30, 2019. Although the Fed resolved to steadily trim its policy rates at the latest two meetings and announced the purchase of short-term tr... Read more

21 Oct 2019

International Economy

3Q19 Chinese Economy Grew at Slower Pace at 6%, Pressuring Government to Introduce New Economic Stimuli (Business Brief No.3826)

The Chinese economy grew 6.0 percent YoY in 3Q19, representing the slowest growth in almost 30 years and declining from the 6.2 percent pace recorded during 2Q19. The disappointing economic performance, which stands at the lower end of China’s growth target, will likely force the government to intro... Read more

9 Oct 2019

International Economy

Vietnam’s Automotive Industry is Thriving despite over 46% of Cars Imported from Thailand (Current Issue No.3038)

Vietnam’s automotive industry is set to grow substantially over the next 5-7 years and this will likely attract additional investments in its car production. Although Vietnam is far behind other ASEAN member states in many aspects, in particular its car production, KResearch views that its car produ... Read more

20 Sep 2019

International Economy

China’s Central Bank (PBOC) plans for its own digital currency to counter dollar dominance and money laundering (Business Brief No.3820)

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) has announced a plan to release its own central bank digital currency (CBDC) with an aim to increase the role of the Chinese Yuan on the world market and to combat money laundering. The new currency will be retail CBDC that Chinese can use in lieu of cash. It will ... Read more

16 Sep 2019

International Economy

High Global Crude Oil Prices following Saudi Oil Attacks May Bolster 2019 Inflation by 0.3% (Business Brief No.3818)

Drone attacks on Saudi Arabia’s two major oil refineries on Saturday, September 14, 2019 have driven up Brent crude oil price in the futures market by almost 12 percent. The incident has sparked fears among investors worldwide over oil supply disruption because Saudi Arabia is the world’s largest oi... Read more

16 Sep 2019

International Economy

The Fed meeting on Sept 17-18, 2019 is expected to slash policy rates: Keep a close watch on the Fed’s new policy direction (Business Brief No.3817)

KResearch expects the US Federal Reserve to cut rates by a quarter of a percentage point from 2.00-2.25 percent to 1.75-2.00 percent during the Federal Market Open Committee (FOMC)’s meeting on September 17-18, 2019. The key US economic indicators, especially manufacturing output and employment, con... Read more

5 Sep 2019

International Economy

Renewed Trade War Forces Companies to Move Production Out of China…Thailand’s Potential to Lure New Investments May Be Limited (Current Issue No.3028)

The intensifying US-China trade dispute in terms of the value of goods subject to their import tariffs and magnitude of their import tariff hikes may shave Thai exports by approximately USD3 billion in 2019, against the USD2.4 billion projected before. ... Read more

15 Aug 2019

International Economy

Inversion of the US treasury yield signals risks that the US economy may be heading for recession (Current Issue No.3022)

The inverted yield curve -- where the US 2-year note yield has risen above the benchmark 10-year yield for the first time 12 years – is fueling fears that the global economy may be heading for recession in the next 12 months. This is because the inverted yield curve is an indicator which has correct... Read more

7 Aug 2019

International Economy

From trade war to currency war… Thai authorities must be prepared (Current Issue No.3016)

The People's Bank of China allowed its currency to fall below 7 Yuan to the US Dollar for the first time in 11 years after the US announced last week that it would slap a 10 percent tariff on USD300 billion of Chinese goods. The latest move by Beijing signals its readiness to retaliate against the U... Read more

6 Aug 2019

International Economy

US Labeling of China as “Currency Manipulator” Sends Regional Currencies Reeling (Current Issue No.3034)

The trade war between the US and China has spread to a battle over currencies. Previously, their conflicts were limited to tariffs and international trade. Recently, the US Treasury Department accused China of “manipulating its currency”, representing a more aggressive move after China let the Yuan ... Read more

2 Aug 2019

International Economy

US decision to impose tariff on additional Chinese goods…Damage to Thailand increases to USD2.4 billion (Current Issue No.3013)

US President Donald Trump eventually announced an additional 10 percent tariff on the remaining USD300 billion of Chinese imports, effective September 1, 2019, due mainly to the slow progress in the trade talks. In particular, Beijing is bargaining for conditions which are difficult to be achievable... Read more

1 Aug 2019

International Economy

Fed Lowers Policy Rate, But the Baht Weakens Against the Greenback (Current Issue No.3012)

As expected, the Federal Reserve (Fed) slashed its policy rate for the first time in over 10 years to a range of 2.00-2.25 percent at its meeting, July 30-31, 2019. However, no signs of another policy rate cut have been seen from the Fed Chair. The outcome of the latest FOMC meeting has disappoint... Read more

25 Jul 2019

International Economy

Fed meeting on July 30-31, 2019 is expected to cut interest rate to sustain the US economic recovery (Business Brief No.3811)

KResearch expects the US Federal Reserve to cut the interest rates by 0.25 percent percentage point from 2.25-2.50 percent to 2.00-2.25 percent. Moreover, the Fed is likely to announce to end the balance sheet reduction before the initial schedule to ensure the continuity of the US economic expansio... Read more

17 Jul 2019

International Economy

Chinese economy in 2Q19 registers slowest growth rate in 27 years (Business Brief No.3808)

China's economic growth in 2Q19 grew at 6.2 percent, the slowest growth rate in 27 years and down from 6.4 percent in 1Q19. Consequently, China’s gross domestic product in 1H19 rose only 6.3 percent. The slump is a result of a fall in the global and domestic demands. Moreover, the prolonged trade wa... Read more

28 Jun 2019

International Economy

G20 Summit: Hopes to End Trade War May Fade Away (Business Brief No.3004)

All eyes are on the G20 Summit, in particular a talk between the US and China, the world’s superpowers, to end the trade war that will last for a year in July 2019. Looking back, it is believed that the US and China knew that they would not benefit from the persistent trade war. A clear consequence ... Read more

26 Jun 2019

International Economy

Thailand as the ASEAN Chair is pushing the conclusion of RCEP… to reboot the multilateral free trade system (Current Issue No.3001)

The ASEAN Summit 2019 ended with members agreeing to conclude the talks for the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) framework by 2019. Thailand should take this opportunity as the ASEAN Chair to act as the facilitator to bridge the differences among members to push for the success of ... Read more

7 May 2019

International Economy

US-China trade war escalates…the US threat to hike tariffs on Chinese goods to 25 percent disrupts Thai trade outlook again (Current Issue No.2988)

The trade talks between the US and China last week did not produce a satisfactory outcome either side. Moreover, the US President Donald Trump announced plans to further raise tariffs on USD200 billion of Chinese goods from 10 to 25 percent starting Friday, May 10. The latest move puts greater press... Read more

29 Apr 2019

International Economy

Expected slowing US economy amid weaker-than-target inflation may signal a halt in Fed interest rate increase (Business Brief No.3799)

KResearch expects the Federal Reserve to maintain the policy rate at 2.25-2.50 percent during the Federal Open Market Committee meeting on April 30-May 1, 2019. The Fed’s hint at easing monetary policy will sustain the US economic growth in the remainder of this year. During 2Q19 and 3Q19, the US e... Read more

17 Apr 2019

International Economy

Chinese economy is likely to enjoy the highest growth at 6.4% YoY in 1Q19 before decelerating in the remainder of this year (Business Brief No.3796)

Chinese economy in 1Q19 expanded 6.4 percent YoY compared to 6.6 percent growth in 2018, while exports increased only 1.0 percent YoY versus 9.9 percent in 2018. Nonetheless, the government’s stimulus policy has begun to bear fruit to support the growth momentum of the Chinese economy. The Chinese... Read more

15 Mar 2019

International Economy

Slowing US economic indicators prompt the Fed to hint at only one rate hike in 2019 (Business Brief No.3792)

KResearch expects the US Federal Reserve (Fed) to keep the policy rates unchanged at 2.25-2.50 percent during the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on March 19-20, 2019. High external risk, slowing US economic activities and lower US inflation will prompt the Fed to hint at only one rate ... Read more