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Financial Market & Institutions Analysis

19 Oct 2021

Financial Markets

The Baht strengthened on Thailand’s reopening plan, while the SET dropped before the release of listed companies’ performance results

The Baht resumed the appreciation trend. It hit its highest level in 3 weeks ofTHB33.16/USD, supported by news that the Thai government would continue its reopening plan, plus net foreign stock and bond buying orders. Meanwhile, the US Dollar weakened in line with the decline in 10-year US treasury ... Read more

19 Oct 2021

Financial Institutions

Thai Banks, 3Q21: Net Profits Projected to Decline QoQ due to Impact of COVID-19 on Asset Quality (Business Brief No.3954)

KResearch expects that net profits of domestically-registered commercial banks will reach THB32.5-33.5 billion in 3Q21, declining from the THB57.2 billion reported for 2Q21 because the resurgence of COVID-19 in early 3Q21 may dent their core business income, particularly fees and service income, thu... Read more

8 Oct 2021

Financial Markets

The Baht weakened while the SET surged in line with other stock markets

The Baht hit a new 4-year low of THB33.99/USD during the week of Oct 4-8. The Baht fell in line with other regional currencies, as the US dollar rose along with US treasury yields, boosted by stronger-than-expected US ISM Services Index, ADP employment and Jobless Claims reports. The US dollar also ... Read more

1 Oct 2021

Financial Markets

The Baht rebounded from a 4-year low while the SET dropped in line with other stock markets

The Baht hit a 4-year low of THB33.97/USD before rebounding somewhat later in the week. The Baht fell on USD-buying orders at the quarter-end and net foreign selling orders in the Thai bond market. Meanwhile, the US dollar rose along with expectations that the Fed would exit its extraordinarily easi... Read more

1 Oct 2021

Financial Institutions

Steady Growth Seen in 2Q21 Household Debt...More Retail Borrowers Participating in Financial Relief Measures Present Challenge in Accelerating Debt Restructuring (Current Issue No.3274)

According to the Bank of Thailand (BOT)’s latest report on loans extended to households in 2Q21, outstanding household debt increased to THB14.27 trillion, amounting to 89.3 percent of GDP. That figure represents a decline from the 90.6 percent of GDP, its highest in 18 years, reported for 1Q21, bec... Read more

28 Sep 2021

Financial Markets

The Baht hit a 4-year low before rebounding while the SET rose on purchases of bank shares

The Baht weakened on net foreign bond selling orders and tumbling risky assets amid concerns about the default of a Chinese property developer. Meanwhile, the US dollar gained after the Fed Chair signaled a taper of its bond-buying program in November while the new dot plot hinted that the US policy... Read more

23 Sep 2021

Financial Institutions

MPC Meeting, September 29, 2021: Policy rate likely to be maintained at 0.5% amid signs of improvement in the COVID-19 situation (Business Brief No.3951)

KResearch assesses that the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will keep its policy rate at 0.50 percent during the meeting slated for September 29, 2021, following a decrease in the number of daily COVID-19 cases in the country. In its previous meeting in August 2021, the MPC voted 4 to 2 to maintain ... Read more

23 Sep 2021

Financial Institutions

The Baht weakens in response to Fed’s signals of QE Tapering around mid-2022 and Fed Funds Rate Hike (Business Brief No.3950)

At the latest Federal Open Market Committee meeting, September 21-22, 2021,the Federal Reserve (Fed) signaled that it would begin scaling back its asset purchases via the QE measure over the next several months. Concurrently, markets have assessed that there is a higher chance of a Fed Funds rate hi... Read more

22 Sep 2021

Financial Institutions

Higher demand for funds ...affects liquidity and bond yields (Current Issue No.3270)

Since August 2021, the upward trend of Thai bond yields has been one of the major issues that has drawn attention, even though the Bank of Thailand (BOT) still maintains its policy rate at a low level for 2021 and likely into 2022 amid the uncertainty surrounding economic recovery. There are several... Read more

17 Sep 2021

Financial Markets

The Baht broke the THB33.00/USD level, while the SET faced sell-offs at the end of the week

The Baht broke the THB33.00/USD level to hit the weakest level in 3 weeks at THB33.26/USD. A weaker Baht was in line with net foreign bond selling orders worth THB26.8 billion. The US dollar also rose along with the US bond yields, after strong US retail sales, NY Empire State Manufacturing and Phil... Read more

10 Sep 2021

Financial Markets

The Baht pared losses later in the week while the SET dropped but remained over 1,600 points

The Baht rose later in the week. The Baht weakened in line with net foreign stock and bond selling orders during the week while the US dollar rose as a safe-haven currency amid concerns about the global economic slowdown hit by the delta variant. However, the Baht pared those losses somewhat and reb... Read more

7 Sep 2021

Financial Institutions

Thai Investors’ views on Cryptocurrency Investment Trends (Current Issue No.3264)

Many new investors worldwide were rushing into the cryptocurrency market recently as it offered higher returns than other assets. Retail investors in Thailand were no exception as more of them have flocked to the cryptocurrency market to capture wide gains, though their numbers remain limited. Such ... Read more

6 Sep 2021

Financial Institutions

Assessing the economy based on the financial position of the Thai banking industry (Current Issue No.3263)

The COVID-19 crisis has persisted for almost two years, offering various parties a clearer perspective on multiple issues – whether these are the impacts that stemmed from the pandemic or existing problems in each sector that have been exacerbated by the ongoing outbreak. Many interesting points can... Read more

3 Sep 2021

Financial Markets

The Baht weakened later in the week while the SET stood firmly over 1,600 points

 The Baht pared gains and weakened later in the week. The Baht rose early-to mid-week on net foreign stock and bond buying orders, while the US dollar faced sell-offs after the Fed Chair signaled that the Fed might taper its bond-buying program with no hurry to raise interest rates. The Baht pared ... Read more

27 Aug 2021

Financial Markets

The Baht strengthened while the SET rose on hopes towards easing restrictions on economic activity

The Baht hit a 6-week high of THB32.61/USD. The Baht rose on technical-buying orders and position adjustments ahead of the Fed Chair’s speech at the Fed annual Jackson Hole symposium that market participants kept an eye on to assess a chance of QE tapering. The Baht also rose on net foreign stock an... Read more

23 Aug 2021

Financial Markets

The Baht moved within a tight range while the SET rose despite pressure from COVID-19 situation

The Baht moved within a narrow range. The Baht weakened early in the week amid concerns over the Thai economic outlook due to the impact of the prolonged COVID-19 pandemic. Later, the Baht rebounded briefly on position adjustments before the release of the FOMC meeting minutes. However, the Baht tum... Read more

13 Aug 2021

Financial Markets

The Baht remained weak while the SET was under pressure of the COVID-19 situation

The Baht remained weak, having hit a 3-year low of THB33.49/USD during the week. The Baht tumbled earlier in the week amid concerns about the domestic COVID-19 outbreak, while the US dollar rose on the Fed’s signal of a chance for QE tapering later this year. The Baht rebounded briefly on the US Dol... Read more

6 Aug 2021

Counting down to maximum deposit protection of THB 1 million...Thai financial system remains strong despite ongoing COVID-19 outbreak (Business Brief No.3944)

From August 11, 2021 onwards, Thai Baht deposits that are protected under the Deposit Protection Agency (DPA) Act will have a lower coverage limit of THB1 million per depositor per financial institution. KResearch perceives that the objective of this imminent decrease in deposit protection is to fos... Read more

6 Aug 2021

Financial Markets

The Baht hit a near 3-year low while the SET pared all gains at the end of the week

The Baht hit a near 3-year low of THB33.39/USD. The Baht faced sell-offs amid the rising risk from the currently severe COVID-19 outbreak that is set to dampen the Thai economic outlook in 2021 and 2022. In addition, the US dollar was supported by a strong US Jobless Claims report and the Fed offici... Read more

2 Aug 2021

Financial Markets

The Baht and SET pressured by risks of COVID-19 at home

The Baht hit its lowest level in 15-1/2 months of THB32.99/USD before rebounding somewhat at the end of the week. The Baht weakened amid concerns towards the surging number of COVID-19 cases at home, placing intense pressure on Thailand’s healthcare system. Meanwhile, the Baht along with the yuan an... Read more

30 Jul 2021

Financial Institutions

MPC Meeting, August 4, 2021: Policy Rate Likely Maintained at 0.5% amid Increased Economic Risk (Business Brief No.3943)

KResearch assesses that the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will likely keep its policy intact at 0.5 percent during the upcoming meeting scheduled for August 4, 2021 to support the Thai economic recovery amid increased risk, stemming from the Delta coronavirus (COVID-19) variant. This highly contag... Read more

29 Jul 2021

Financial Institutions

2Q21 Loans and Deposits Projected to Grow at Slower Pace, Reinforcing Signals of Economic Fragility (Business Brief No.3942)

According to summary statements of assets and liabilities (C.B. 1.1), net loans to customers and accrued interest receivables at 19 domestically registered commercial banks increased approximately THB78.4 billion MoM as of the end of June 2021. Given this, KResearch assesses that loans in the Thai c... Read more

27 Jul 2021

Financial Markets

The Baht hit a new 15-month low, while the SET dropped on concerns over COVID-19 situation

The Baht hit a new 15-month low of THB32.94/USD. The Baht tumbled further as confirmed domestic COVID-19 cases continued to surge over 10,000 cases per day. The worsening COVID-19 situation has reinforced concerns about its impact on the path to Thailand’s economic recovery. Other Asian currencies w... Read more

16 Jul 2021

Financial Institutions

Bank Operating Performance 2Q21 Lower net profit compared to previous quarter; increased provisioning in anticipation of prolonged COVID-19 crisis (Business Brief No.3939)

KResearch expects that the overall performance of Thai commercial banks in 2Q21 may see an increase in net profit over-year since the economy was hit by the first wave of COVID-19 in 2Q20. However, net profit in 2Q21 may dip to a mere THB 34.8 billion, against the THB38.7 billion that was registered... Read more

16 Jul 2021

Financial Markets

The Baht hit a 15-month low, while the SET rose despite pressure from COVID-19

The Baht hit a 15-month low of THB32.80/USD towards the end of the week. The Baht traded within a narrow range earlier in the week, while the US dollar fell on a signal by the Fed Chairman that the Fed would not tighten its monetary policy in the immediate future despite a surge in inflation. Howeve... Read more

9 Jul 2021

Financial Institutions

Thai Baht continues to weaken… 2H21 trend hinge mainly on COVID-19 risks and Fed’s signal of monetary policy tightening (Business Brief No.3936)

The Baht has weakened rapidly amid heightened risks from the third wave of the COVID-19 pandemic, which tends to be difficult to control as authorities grapple with COVID-19 variants. As a result, the Baht hit a 15-month low at THB 32.73 per USD (during the trading sessions on July 9, 2021). Meanwhi... Read more

9 Jul 2021

Financial Markets

The Baht hit a near 15-month low, while the SET dropped on the worsening COVID-19 situation at home

The Baht faced sell-offs during the week of July 5-9. The Baht hit a near 15-month low of THB32.73/USD amid concerns about the domestic COVID-19 situation with a surge in covid cases. The protracted COVID-19 pandemic led to an implementation of the stricter control measures and dampened the economic... Read more

2 Jul 2021

Financial Markets

The Baht hit a near 14-month low, while the SET faced sell-offs amid concerns towards COVID-19 situation

The Baht broke the THB32.00/USD level to hit THB32.27/USD, the weakest level in almost 14 months. The Baht tumbled on concerns about the domestic COVID-19 situation and data showing that Thailand’s current account balance posted a deficit for the seventh consecutive month. Meanwhile, the US dollar r... Read more

21 Jun 2021

Financial Institutions

MPC Meeting on June 23, 2021: Policy rate likely to be held at 0.5% and specific measures to reduce household debts expected to take priority (Business Brief No.3934)

KResearch expects that the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will keep its policy rate on hold at 0.50 percent during the meeting slated for June 23, 2021, in order to support Thailand’s economic recovery amid low inflationary pressures. The Thai economy remains fraught with risks from the COVID-19 o... Read more

21 Jun 2021

Financial Markets

The Baht tumbled while the SET dropped below 1,600 points, pressured by numerous factors

The Baht hit a 13-month low of THB31.98/USD, before paring losses somewhat later in the week. The Baht weakened, as the US dollar rose on Fed officials’ remarks, signaling that the Fed might tighten its monetary policy sooner rather than later. The Baht fell further on concerns about the domestic CO... Read more

14 Jun 2021

Financial Markets

The Baht strengthened while the SET closed firmly above 1,600 points

The Baht strengthened against the US dollar. The Baht was supported by net foreign stock and bond buying orders and promising news regarding the mass vaccination rollout across the nation early in the week. Meanwhile, the US dollar continued to weaken in line with the declining of US bond yields (th... Read more

7 Jun 2021

Financial Markets

The Baht weakened, while the SET closed above 1,600 points despite paring some gains at the end of the week

The Baht weakened later in the week. The Baht rose early in the week in line with most other regional currencies and net foreign buying-orders for Thai stocks and bonds. However, the Baht pared those gains and weakened later in the week. Meanwhile, stronger-than-expected US economic data, including ... Read more

28 May 2021

Financial Markets

The Baht edged higher, while the SET rose in line with other stock markets and on hopes towards rapid vaccination rollouts

The Baht edged stronger in line with the Yuan and most other regional currencies. It also gained on net foreign bond-buying orders and a stronger-than-expected Thai export data for April. Meanwhile, the US dollar was weighed down by remarks of the Fed officials signaling that the Fed would continue ... Read more

25 May 2021

Financial Institutions

Rising demand for liquidity in Thai financial system expected in 2021, in the wake of prolonged COVID-19 (Current Issue No.3225)

While the COVID-19 outbreak continues to ravage the country and further delays economic recovery, the Thai financial system will be flush with liquidity demand throughout 2021, thanks to fundraising efforts by the government – which are required to promote spending to support the economy. Concurrent... Read more

21 May 2021

Financial Markets

The Baht traded narrowly while the SET dropped on concerns over the COVID-19 situation at home

The Baht traded in a narrow range. The Baht fell slightly amid concerns about the COVID-19 situation at home, which is set to dampen the Thai economic outlook. Meanwhile, the US dollar rose after the FOMC minutes discussed the inflation outlook and a plan for adjusting the pace of asset purchases. H... Read more

14 May 2021

Financial Markets

The Baht weakened while the SET dropped sharply on internal and external negative factors

The Baht weakened after rising briefly early in the week as the US dollar fell on a disappointing US Non-Farm Payrolls report. However, the Thai currency tumbled later on, while the US dollar strengthened along with the rising bond yields on the back of a stronger-than-expected US CPI data, triggeri... Read more

7 May 2021

Financial Institutions

Third COVID-19 outbreak boosts growth of mobile banking and e-wallet transactions (Current Issue No.3219)

The COVID-19 outbreak has been a key factor in boosting the growth of mobile banking and e-wallet transactions. A recent survey conducted by KResearch found that Thai consumers generally conduct around 19 funds transfers and/or payments for goods and services per week via mobile banking and e-wallet... Read more

7 May 2021

Financial Markets

The Baht traded in a narrow range while the SET rebounded at the end of the week

The Baht traded in a narrow range. The Baht rose slightly on position adjustment after the domestic financial markets reopened mid-week. It reversed those gains later amid concerns over the economic impacts from the third wave of COVID-19 at home. However, the Baht rebounded later in the week as the... Read more

30 Apr 2021

Financial Institutions

MPC meeting on May 5, 2021: Policy rate to be maintained at 0.5% amid heightened risk from new COVID-19 outbreak (Business Brief No.3928)

KResearch expects that the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will keep its policy rate steady at 0.50 percent during the meeting scheduled for May 5, 2021 to support economic recovery amid this period of heightened uncertainty. This economic atmosphere stems from the new COVID-19 outbreak which remain... Read more

30 Apr 2021

Financial Markets

The Baht strengthened while the SET faced sell-offs at the end of the week

The Baht hit a 1-month high of THB31.135/USD after breaking the THB31.20/USD level later in the week. The Baht rose along with net foreign bond buying orders, while the US dollar face sell-offs on the back of the Fed’s easing monetary policy stance. The latest FOMC meeting signaled that the Fed woul... Read more

30 Apr 2021

Financial Institutions

Credit Card Loans, 2021: More Cardholders Make Minimum Payments due to Impact of COVID-19 (Current Issue No.3217)

The credit card business is one of the businesses that has been adversely affected by the COVID-19 pandemic because a credit card serves as a payment tool in lieu of cash, which means that credit card spending and credit card loans tend to decline whenever there is an economic downturn.... Read more

23 Apr 2021

Financial Markets

The Baht weakened while the SET dropped towards the end of the week on concerns about COVID-19

The Baht hit the weakest level in a week at THB31.44/USD amid concerns about the third wave of COVID-19 at home, with the number of daily cases rising at an alarming rate. Meanwhile, the US dollar rose as a safe-haven currency later in the week after the US President Joe Biden proposed a plan to hik... Read more

22 Apr 2021

Financial Institutions

Consolidated financial statements of 9 banks in 1Q21 show a boost in net profit from reduced expenses and provisions (Current Issue No.3924)

KResearch has compiled major financial data from the consolidated financial statements of nine commercial banks and their subsidiaries for 1Q21. The latest data reveals that these commercial banks and their subsidiaries recorded a net profit of Baht 46.071 billion, or growth of 47.4 percent QoQ, c... Read more

16 Apr 2021

Financial Markets

The Baht strengthened while the SET rebounded somewhat at the end of the week despite over-week declines

The Baht regained strength towards the end of the week. The Baht hit a 6-month low of THB31.57/USD earlier in the week amid concerns about the third wave of COVID-19 at home as it has spread widely and could have adverse impacts on the Thai economic outlook. However, the Baht rebounded strongly on t... Read more

12 Apr 2021

Financial Institutions

Projected Bank Operating Performance 1Q21: new COVID-19 outbreak continues to raise uncertainties, despite higher profit than the previous quarter (Business Brief No.3921)

KResearch assesses that net profit of domestically-registered commercial banks (Thai banking system) may have inched up during 1Q21. While income from core businesses of commercial banks may have yet to fully recover due to the pandemic’s impact on economic activity across numerous Thai industries,... Read more

9 Apr 2021

Financial Markets

The Baht fell to a 6-month low, while the SET dropped over-week despite a rebound at the end of

The Baht hit a 6-month low of THB31.51/USD. The Baht fell along with other regional currencies early in the week, while the US dollar extended its gains on a stronger-than-expected US non-farm payrolls report for March that helped boost hopes for the US economic recovery. The Baht then fell to a 6-m... Read more

2 Apr 2021

Financial Markets

The Baht extended losses while the SET closed near 1,600 points

The Baht hit a 5-1/2 month low of THB31.40/USD. The Baht weakened, while the US dollar rose as a safe-haven currency amid concerns about media reports that a US-based hedge fund defaulted on margin calls. The US dollar also extended gains on the prospect of a strong US economic recovery, boosted by ... Read more

1 Apr 2021

Financial Institutions

Digital Banks: Challenges lie in adopting a format appropriate for the Thai context (Current Issue No.3205)

Currently, the trend for digital-only banks (or digital banks) is gaining a lot of traction. Numerous central banks across Asia including Singapore, Malaysia, Taiwan and Hong Kong, to name but a few places, have issued digital banking licenses to applicants. These moves have been made in the hope of... Read more

1 Apr 2021

Financial Institutions

Persistently High Household Debt Seen in 2021 at 89-91% of GDP (Current Issue No.3204)

According to the Bank of Thailand (BOT)’s latest report on loans to household in 4Q20, household debt exceeded THB14 trillion as of the 2020 year-end, which is the highest ever recorded by the BOT in 18 years. This figure amounts to 89.3 percent of 2020 GDP. In terms of growth, outstanding household... Read more

26 Mar 2021

Financial Markets

The Baht hit a 4-1/2 month low before rebounding, while the SET surged at the end of the week

The Baht fell along other regional currencies, while the US dollar rose on positive US economic views given by the Fed chairman and Secretary of the Treasury, as well as a better-than-expected US jobless claims report. The Baht was also hit by weak export data for February. However, the Baht’s losse... Read more

25 Mar 2021

Financial Institutions

Nano-Finance Business, 2021: Recovery Inhibited by Risk and Economic Uncertainty (Current Issue No.3200)

Nano-finance under the supervision is referred to as retail loans for business purposes, which target individuals with no regular income, account statements with banks and assets prescribed as collateral. The nano-finance business contracted during 2019-2020 due to a number of factors. These include... Read more

23 Mar 2021

Financial Institutions

MPC Meeting, March 24, 2021: Policy Rate Will Likely Be Maintained at 0.5% while 2021 Growth Outlook to be Cut Slightly (Business Brief No.3917)

We at KResearch assess that the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will likely keep its policy rate steady at 0.50 percent during the meeting scheduled for March 24, 2021 as the government has steadily implemented a series of economic stimulus measures with the aim of easing the impact of a new wave of... Read more

23 Mar 2021

Financial Institutions

Soft loan and asset warehousing… promising options for businesses seeking aid in times of great uncertainty (Current Issue No.3199)

The financial position of Thai businesses, particularly small and medium enterprises (SMEs), remains precarious amid the uncertainties that are hindering economic recovery. Revival of the economy remains subject to progress made in vaccinations, both domestically and internationally; as well as the ... Read more

17 Mar 2021

Financial Institutions

Rising Bond Yields to Increase Public and Private Sectors’ Interest Burden by around THB9.05-10.80 Billion in 2021 (Current Issue No.3197)

Yields on Thai government bonds (bond yields) have risen steadily since the beginning of 2021. For the 10-year Thai government bond, its yield surged to the highest level in two years and eight months, at 2.05 percent, so far this year. We at KResearch assess that the yield on the 10-year Thai gover... Read more

12 Mar 2021

Financial Markets

The Baht weakened while the SET rose along with other stock markets but pared gains somewhat at the end of the week

The Baht fell to a 4-month low of THB30.95/USD. The Baht weakened early in the week, as the US dollar rose along with the rising US bond yields, supported by the US stimulus measures. The Baht pared losses somewhat on the back of the correction in US bond yields and net foreign stock and bond buying... Read more

5 Mar 2021

Financial Markets

The Baht weakened while the SET rose above 1,500 points again

The Baht hit a near 4-month low of THB30.51/USD. The Baht weakened along with other Asian currencies, while the US dollar extended gains on the rising US bond yields, supported by the Fed Chair’s remarks signaling that the Fed would have no additional measures to slow the yield upward trend. The US ... Read more

25 Feb 2021

Financial Markets

The Baht weakened while the SET fluctuated throughout the week

The Baht traded at the weaker side of THB30.00/USD. It fell early in the week along with net foreign stock and bond selling orders. Meanwhile, the US dollar was boosted by the rising US bond yields on the back of the US economic optimism. The US dollar’s gains were capped somewhat by the Fed Chair’s... Read more

22 Feb 2021

Financial Markets

The Baht weakened while the SET dropped on sell-offs by domestic institutional and foreign investors

The Baht weakened but later rebounded later in the week. The Baht moved in a tight range before weakened later due to the strengthening greenback on the rising US bond yields amid signs of the US economic recovery. However, the Baht pared losses later in the week, while the US dollar fell on a weake... Read more

11 Feb 2021

Financial Markets

The Baht strengthened while the SET rose above 1,500 points despite the sell-offs before long weekend

The Baht strengthened against the US dollar. The Baht’s gains were in line with other regional currencies and risky assets amid hopes for the US stimulus measures. In addition, the US dollar fell on the Fed Chair’s remarks on easing monetary policy stance, the falling US Treasury bond yields, and th... Read more

11 Feb 2021

Financial Institutions

Can QE Help Sustain Thai Economic Recovery? (Current Issue No.3187)

Quantitative easing (QE) is a form of unconventional monetary policy, which is typically used by central banks of major countries, including several nations in Asia, in helping address their economic woes after having to cut their policy rates to near zero percent. The details and size of asset purc... Read more

29 Jan 2021

Financial Institutions

MPC Meeting, February 3, 2021: Policy Rate Likely to Remain Unchanged at 0.5% and Close Attention Must be Paid to New Economic Assessment Results to be Released in March (Business Brief No.3911)

KResearch assesses that the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) may keep its policy rate steady at 0.50 percent during its first meeting of 2021, scheduled for February 3, because the government has just implemented new monetary and fiscal measures. Its spending under the new fiscal stimulus package acc... Read more

29 Jan 2021

Financial Markets

The Baht bounced back later in the week while the SET dropped below 1,500 points again

The Baht rose later in the week. The Baht traded in a narrow range earlier in the week, awaiting new factors, before falling later as the US dollar gained on the Fed’s meeting outcomes, i.e., its policy rate and QE program were kept unchanged, while no new easing measures were announced. The US doll... Read more

27 Jan 2021

Financial Institutions

Asset Quality Problem Remains Major Risk for Financial Institutions in 2021 (Business Brief No.3910)

Based on 4Q20 financial statements of commercial banks, KResearch assesses that non-performing loans (NPLs) in the commercial banking system may reach approximately THB523 billion as of the end of 2020, accounting for 3.16 percent of total loans. For 2021, we are of the view that NPLs will likely tr... Read more

22 Jan 2021

Financial Markets

The Baht rose slightly while the SET dropped below 1,500 points amid concerns towards the COVID-19 situation

The Baht rebounded slightly after having fallen earlier in the week in line with other regional currencies amid a number of risks. These include concerns about the economic impacts from the COVID-19 pandemic, problems concerning COVID-19 vaccinations in many countries, and the US political situation... Read more

22 Jan 2021

Financial Institutions

Bond Market 2021: Yields may gradually rise after President Joe Biden signals additional economic stimulus (Current Issue No.3181)

Aside from growing risks posed by the new COVID-19 outbreak which may hamper Thailand’s economic recovery in 2021, another important factor that warrants attention is the rising fund raising cost in the Thai bond market early in the year. This situation is partly due to projections regarding the inc... Read more

15 Jan 2021

Financial Markets

The Baht traded in a narrow range while the SET dropped on sell-offs of institutional investors

The Baht traded in a narrow range, but rose slightly later in the week. The Baht fell in line with the weaker Yuan and other regional currencies while the US dollar gained its strength on the rising US bond yields and buying orders amid US political uncertainty. However, the Baht pared losses somew... Read more

13 Jan 2021

Financial Institutions

BOT offers borrowers an extension of relief measures... a lifeline to ease financial burdens and counter new COVID-19 outbreak (Business Brief No.3906)

The new COVID-19 outbreak which has dragged on into 2021 continues to affect economic activity that had previously been on the verge of recovery. Such circumstances have further intensified the issues of financial vulnerability, lack of liquidity and deteriorating debt servicing ability among many ... Read more

8 Jan 2021

Financial Markets

The Baht weakened later in the week while the SET rose above 1,500 points in the first week of the year

The Baht weakened at the end of the week. The Baht rose early in the week in line with the Yuan and other regional currencies while the US dollar had no new supportive factors. The Thai currency then pared gains along with weakening regional peers, as well as net foreign selling orders for Thai bon... Read more

6 Jan 2021

Financial Institutions

BOT Presses Ahead with Adjustment of Foreign Exchange Market Ecosystem... But Strong Baht Still Supported by Specific Factors (Business Brief No.3905)

Since the start of 2021, major currencies and Asian currencies, including the Chinese Yuan, have continued to strengthen while the greenback has been facing sell-off, pressured by the Fed’s quantitative easing and the US presidential transition. Meanwhile, the Thai Baht’s value has surged past the 3... Read more

30 Dec 2020

Financial Institutions

Hefty Household Debt Likely to Persist in 2021...Helping Borrowers Survive New Wave of COVID-19 Presents Immediate Challenge (Business Brief No.3904)

According to the Bank of Thailand’s latest report on loans to households during 3Q20, Thailand’s household debt remained at a high level and is projected to rise steadily amid weak economic conditions. The household debt to GDP ratio hit a new 18-year high of 86.6 percent in 3Q20, driven by new home... Read more

29 Dec 2020

Financial Institutions

Commercial Banking Business, 2020: Close Attention Must be Paid to New Wave of COVID-19 (Business Brief No.3903)

In 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic has not only dealt a blow to economic activity, but pressured operating results of commercial banks in many ways. KResearch expects that net profit of domestic-registered commercial banks may reach THB144 billion, representing the lowest level in nine years since 2012.... Read more

18 Dec 2020

Financial Markets

The Baht strengthened past the THB30.00/USD levelwhile the SET dropped on sell-offs of institutional and foreign investors

The Baht broke the THB30.00/USD level. The Baht traded in a narrow range earlier in the week, before strengthened later and hit a 7-1/2 year high of THB29.76/USD on the back of the US Treasury report on macroeconomic and foreign exchange policies of major trading partners of the US that added Thail... Read more

17 Dec 2020

Financial Institutions

MPC Meeting, December 23, 2020: Policy Rate Likely Maintained at 0.50% after Economy Has Picked Up (Business Brief No.3901)

KResearch expects that the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will keep its policy rate steady at 0.50 percent during the meeting slated for December 23, 2020 because there are signs showing steady recovery in the Thai economy after the government implemented measures aimed at stimulating the economy a... Read more

16 Dec 2020

Financial Institutions

Auto hire purchase market 2021: Recovery expected, but asset quality merits close watch (Business Brief No.3900)

Auto hire purchase is another business that has been affected by the COVID-19 pandemic. Its impact on purchasing power consequently affected the outstanding balance of auto loans in 3Q20, causing a slower growth rate at 3.5 percent, as opposed to 7.7 percent in 2019. The slowdown resulted from a dec... Read more

11 Dec 2020

Financial Markets

The Baht tested the THB30.00/USD level while the SET continued to rise on hopes for COVID-19 vaccines

The Baht gradually strengthened to test the THB30.00/USD level before a long holiday in Thailand. The Baht rose on weaker US dollar sentiment and the US dollar sell-offs from exporters. In addition, the Baht’s gains were led by foreign net buying orders for Thai stocks on Tuesday and for Thai bonds... Read more

4 Dec 2020

Financial Markets

The Baht gradually strengthened, while the SET rebounded at the end of the week

The Baht gradually strengthened in line with other regional currencies against the safe-haven US dollar. Meanwhile, the US dollar faced sell-offs amid hopes towards COVID-19 vaccines and easing monetary policy stance signaled by the Fed Chairman. In addition, the US dollar was under pressure from w... Read more

27 Nov 2020

Financial Markets

The Baht traded in a narrow range while the SET rose over 1,400 points again

The Baht edged slightly stronger, but the trading range remained narrow during the week. Most market participants kept an eye on the domestic political situation and signals from the relevant authorities to lessen the currency’s volatility. Meanwhile, foreign fund inflows slowed, especially in the b... Read more

20 Nov 2020

Financial Institutions

BOT Places emphasis on balancing fund flows in new Baht measures (Business Brief No.3897)

The Thai financial market has substantially been affected by increased volatility and downside risks in the global financial markets since the beginning of 2020. Recently, there was an influx of investment in assets within the emerging markets, including Thailand, following the US Presidential elect... Read more

20 Nov 2020

Financial Markets

The Baht rebounded although the BOT announced measures to help balance fund flows while the SET rose continuously on foreign investor purchases

The Baht rebounded despite the BOT’s measures to mitigate pressure on the currency. The Baht hit a new 10-month high of THB30.14/USD on net foreign stock and bond buying orders, as well as the appreciation of other Asian currencies due to encouraging news about COVID-19 vaccines. However, it weaken... Read more

13 Nov 2020

Financial Markets

The Baht hit a 10-month high while the SET rose on foreign investor purchases

The Baht hit a 10-month high of THB30.175/USD before paring gains somewhat. The Baht strengthened early in the week along with other Asian currencies, after Democrat Joe Biden won the 2020 presidential election and there was positive news about the COVID-19 vaccine. The Baht was also supported by h... Read more

6 Nov 2020

Financial Markets

The Baht hit a 9-month high while the SET rose on hopes that Joe Biden will win the US presidential election

The Baht broke the THB31.00/USD level, boosted by stronger Yuan and other Asian currencies. Meanwhile, the US dollar faced sell-offs amid expectations that Democrat Joe Biden would be the winner of the 2020 presidential election. The Baht also gained on hefty net foreign bond buying orders of THB25... Read more

16 Oct 2020

Financial Markets

The Baht weakened while the SET dropped almost throughout the week amid concerns over domestic and external factors

The Baht weakened. The Baht weakened early in the week in line with other regional currencies, including the Yuan after the PBOC announced a cut in FX forward reserve requirements to 0%, from the previous 20%. The Baht also fell on net foreign stock selling orders. However, the Baht traded in a narr... Read more

9 Oct 2020

Financial Institutions

Net profit for Thai banks in 3Q20 continues to show severe contraction; income from core businesses yet to recover (Business Brief No.3890)

KResearch assesses that the pandemic-stricken economic environment continued to undermine commercial banks’ profitability in 3Q20, with both interest income and fee income on a declining trend that corresponds to the continuous slump in economic activity across many sectors. Moreover, the interest i... Read more

2 Oct 2020

Financial Institutions

Financial and Capital Markets May Become More Volatile…Close Attention Must be Paid To Trump’s Illness (Business Brief No.3888)

The White House’s recent confirmation that President Donald Trump was diagnosed with coronavirus (COVID-19) is an issue that warrants close monitoring in the days ahead. KResearch views that President Trump’s illness may not affect his popularity as a Republican candidate for the US presidential ele... Read more

28 Sep 2020

Financial Institutions

Life insurance 2020: Sharp downturn continues from last year; insurers hasten to reduce sum insured of main policies while focusing on health riders (Current Issue No.3143)

Life insurance is among businesses that have been adversely affected by the COVID-19 pandemic. In the first seven months of 2020, life insurance premiums contracted by 3.6 percent YoY, reaching THB 329 billion. For 2020, life insurance premiums are projected to shrink in the range of 6 to 2 percent ... Read more

25 Sep 2020

Financial Institutions

2020 Unsecured PLoans Projected to Shrink 6.0% (Current Issue No.3142)

Changing economic conditions as a result of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic present a number of challenges to personal loan (PLoan) service providers, both commercial banks and non-bank financial institutions. Key challenges include how to adjust strategies to reach targeted customers faster tha... Read more

25 Sep 2020

Financial Markets

The Baht weakened while the SET fell on negative factors both at home and abroad

The Baht pared losses somewhat, after having hit an almost 2-month low of THB31.67/USD. The Baht weakened along with falling risky assets and other regional currencies. Its sentiment was also weighed down by domestic political factors. Meanwhile, the US dollar rose on concerns about the global econo... Read more

22 Sep 2020

Financial Institutions

MPC Meeting, September 23, 2020: Policy Rate Likely on Hold at 0.5% while Focus Is on Assistance Measures for Borrowers (Business Brief No.3885)

We at KResearch expect that the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will keep its policy rate steady at 0.50 percent during its meeting slated for September 23, 2020 to maintain the monetary policy space. The MPC may view that a policy rate cut to near zero is not necessary at this time because it can... Read more

22 Sep 2020

Financial Institutions

Digital personal loan unveiled in BOT’s new announcement ... reduces cost and increases accessibility to loan for Thai public (Current Issue No.3139)

The digital personal loan regulations promulgated in the most recent announcement of the Bank of Thailand encourage service providers to use alternative data that does not concern personal income data to assess the willingness and ability of borrowers’ debt payment. This arrangement reflects two pos... Read more

18 Sep 2020

Financial Markets

The Baht strengthened while the SET fluctuated but remained positive over-week

The Baht strengthened further in line with the Yuan and other regional currencies, supported by news regarding the development of COVID-19 vaccines. Meanwhile, the US dollar faced sell-offs after the Fed signaled an easing monetary policy stance and vowed to keep low interest rates for a longer peri... Read more

11 Sep 2020

Financial Institutions

Understanding THOR … New Thai Reference Rate (Business Brief No.3883)

Preparedness for a new context in the financial world resulting from permanent cessation of the London Interbank Offer Rate (LIBOR) as an interest rate benchmark for financial transactions is an important mission of financial regulatory authorities in many countries. For Thailand, the Bank of Thaila... Read more

11 Sep 2020

Financial Markets

The Baht moved in a tight range while the SET dropped on negative factors

The Baht traded in a narrow range, but rose slightly against the US dollar. The Baht edged up early in the week in line with net foreign bond buying orders, as well as other Asian currencies, including the Yuan. Meanwhile, the US dollar faced sell-offs especially against the EUR after the ECB kept i... Read more

3 Sep 2020

Financial Markets

The Baht fell, while the SET dropped on profit-taking before long holidays

The Baht weakened against the US dollar. It hit a 1-week low of THB31.45/USD before long holidays. The Baht fell along with net foreign stock selling orders, while the US dollar rose on stronger-than-expected US ISM and PMI manufacturing surveys. The Baht sentiment was also weighed down by concerns ... Read more

1 Sep 2020

Financial Institutions

Contactless payment: the push for continuous growth in mobile banking and e-wallet use amid fierce competition (Current Issue No.3131)

KResearch views that the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic is an important catalyst in transforming the way Thai consumers conduct funds transfer and pay for goods and services. Such trends have given rise to the “New Normal” which is geared towards making money transfers and purchases that do not require p... Read more

28 Aug 2020

Financial Markets

The Baht strengthened, while the SET also rose on institutional investor purchases

The Baht strengthened along with other regional currencies, including the Yuan, following positive signals seen in the US-China Phase 1 trade deal review and technically buying-orders during the week. The Baht extended gains later in the week and hit a 1-week high of THB31.16/USD, while the US dolla... Read more

21 Aug 2020

Financial Markets

The Baht hit a 3-week low while the SET dropped over-week

The Baht weakened against the US dollar. The baht briefly rose early in the week, as the US dollar fell along with US bond yields on the back of disappointing US economic data. However, the Baht tumbled later in the week amid concerns about domestic factors, including the political and COVID-19 situ... Read more

14 Aug 2020

Financial Markets

The Baht pared gains while the SET dropped at the end of the week before weekend

The Baht rose slightly, while the US dollar dropped on US-China tensions before the scheduled meeting to discuss about the progress of Phase 1 trade deal. The US dollar also faced sell-offs amid concerns about the US new stimulus measures due to different stances between the White House and Congress... Read more

7 Aug 2020

Financial Markets

The Baht and the SET fell at the end of the week amid US-China tensions

The Baht fell later in the week, after having risen in early to mid week along with other regional currencies. In addition, the Baht was partially supported by the rising global gold prices. It broke the THB31.00/USD to hit a new 1-month high of THB30.98/USD. However, the baht pared gains somewhat l... Read more

23 Jul 2020

Financial Institutions

Growth opportunities for digital lending market remain dependent on access to data and investment in digital technology (Current Issue No.3125)

KResearch assesses that, as of 2020, digital lending service in Thailand is still in its infancy and modest in scale as digital lenders lack sufficient customer data for risk profile assessment. Therefore, digital lending service during this initial period is seen mainly as an alternative for existi... Read more

20 Jul 2020

Financial Institutions

Projected Bank Operating Performace, 2Q20: Profit Set to Decline Despite Loan Growth Resulting from Assistance Measures for Businesses (Business Brief No.3876)

Persistent weakness seen in the Thai economy as a result of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic since early 2020 has substantially hurt the profitability of commercial banks during 2Q20. The highly volatile economic cycle at this time has pressured income of commercial banks’ core businesses and in ... Read more

17 Jul 2020

Financial Markets

The Baht weakened while the SET surged at the end of the week on foreign investors’ purchase

The Baht weakened to a 1-1/2 month low last week. The Baht depreciated continuously amid domestic pressures, including concerns over the risk of a second wave of COVID-19 in Thailand and domestic political issues. In addition, the Baht was pressured by technical factors after the Baht broke the key ... Read more