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Econ Digest

14 Oct 2021

Econ Digest

E-commerce market value expected to surge over 30% in 2021, purchasing power and competition remain tough challenges for operators

KResearch projects that the turnover of online platforms or B2C E-commerce (products only) will likely expand by 30%YoY in 2021 to approximately THB 300 billion. Supporting factors include the COVID-19 pandemic, which has altered consumer behaviors including the number of buyers and product diversit... Read more

5 Oct 2021

Econ Digest

Thailand’s residential property market remains weak in 2021

Since the beginning of 2021, most residential property developers have postponed the launch of their new projects due to unfavorable market conditions and a large accumulation of unsold residential units, forcing operators to adapt their business strategies to the market conditions. According to the... Read more

1 Oct 2021

Econ Digest

The Baht weakens in response to the Fed’s signals to start tapering QE in November 2021 and end it around mid-2022, while assessing the timing of rate hike

At its meeting on September 21-22, 2021, the Federal Reserve (Fed) held its policy rate steady at 0.00-0.25% and kept the QE scale unchanged. However, the Fed Chairman has signaled that the Fed is likely to begin scaling back its asset purchases via the QE measure in November 2021 and to end it by m... Read more

30 Sep 2021

Econ Digest

Strong recovery of Indian economy is expected to boost Thai exports to India in 2021 to surge 40%

India’s economy grew at a record rate of 20.1%YoY in the second quarter of 2021 despite facing severe Delta Variant COVID-19 outbreak. Aside from this, India was the fifth-largest FDI recipient in 2020. These data reflect that India is stepping up to play a role in world’s production, as it becomes ... Read more

30 Sep 2021

Econ Digest

Export sector…A key driver for Thai economy in 2021, Full-year growth projected at 12.4%

In August 2021, the COVID-19 outbreak became worse as the highly contagious Delta variant spread across several Asian countries, affecting economic activity and manufacturing sectors, and forcing a slowdown in export growth. This resulted in an 8.93% increase in Thailand’s exports in August, down fr... Read more

21 Sep 2021

Econ Digest

The Fed is expected to hold its policy rate steady at 0.0-0.25% and may not announce QE tapering during its meeting on September 21-22, 2021

The Fed is expected to maintain its policy rate within a range of 0.0-0.25%, and may not announce its QE tapering program at the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee meeting on September 21-22, 2021. In this case, there will be no change from what the market has already anticipated: that the Fed w... Read more

14 Sep 2021

Econ Digest

Home care services: Option during COVID-19

KResearch assesses that spending on home care services in Thailand will likely reach THB2.2-2.3 billion during 2021, representing a growth of 2.4%YoY. Although the market is being supported by an additional number of service providers, a more diverse range of services and the COVID-19 pandemic, whic... Read more

9 Sep 2021

Econ Digest

The rising number of COVID-19 cases is set to generate double the amount of infectious waste compared with pre-COVID-19 periods

The persistent COVID-19 pandemic in Thailand and the rising number of daily cases are set to generate an increased amount of infectious waste during the remainder of 2021. KResearch projects that the amount of infectious waste, mostly stemming from disease prevention and control, will reach roughly ... Read more

3 Sep 2021

Econ Digest

Export value of Thai mangosteens in 2021 is expected to grow 14.6-18.8%

The export value of Thai mangosteens during the first 7 months of 2021 grew by 21.8% from the same period last year. Although export volumes have declined due to a supply disruption caused by a shortage of labor to harvest produce as a result of the Covid-19 outbreak, the output to the market during... Read more

26 Aug 2021

Econ Digest

Market for home medical and assistive living devices for the elderly…growing with the aging society

KResearch projects that the value of home medical and assistive living devices for the elderly in Thailand will be between THB8-9 billion in 2021, accounting for 8-10% of the total value of Thailand’s medical equipment and devices market. Most of the market value will come from the commercial secto... Read more

16 Aug 2021

Econ Digest

Prolonged COVID-19 causes private hospitals reliant on medical tourism to encounter difficulty

Thailand was a leader in the medical tourism market in Asia before COVID-19 emerged. The number of medical tourists, especially those coming for health check-ups, cosmetic surgery, dentistry, orthopedic surgery and cardiac surgery, was on a rising trend. Medical tourism generated medical revenue of ... Read more

3 Aug 2021

Econ Digest

The MPC likely to keep the policy rate steady at 0.5% at its August 4 meeting, to preserve policy space in case of further economic deterioration.

KResearch expects the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) to keep the policy steady at 0.5% at its meeting on August 4, 2021 to support Thailand’s economic recovery. Due to the rising risk of the COVID-19 pandemic and the soaring number of infections, the government must extend and adopt stricter contai... Read more

29 Jul 2021

Econ Digest

Global economic recovery may boost Thailand’s exports to grow 11.5% in 2021

In June 2021, Thai exports hit their highest level in 11 years with robust growth of 43.82%YoY, above market expectations of 38.1% growth. While Thai exports in the first half of 2021 grew 15.53% YoY, the level was not high in comparison to the export growth of other regional countries, w... Read more

23 Jul 2021

Econ Digest

Snack business in 2021 faces eroding consumer purchasing power and soaring cost

KResearch projects that the market value of snack business will reach THB37.5 billion in 2021, representing a contraction of 4.0%YoY, against the 2.6% growth reported for 2020, due to the prolonged COVID-19 pandemic has caused consumers to be thrift and spend cautiously. As snacks are generally perc... Read more

19 Jul 2021

Econ Digest

COVID-19 outbreak drags down Thailand’s GDP growth forecast in 2021 to 1.0%

KResearch has revised the growth forecast for the Thai economy in 2021 down to 1.0%, from its previous forecast of 1.8%, because a more severe COVID-19 outbreak than previously estimated would lead to the need for stricter COVID-19 containment measures, with more of a negative impact on business sec... Read more

14 Jul 2021

Econ Digest

The Baht continues to weaken and could hit THB33.00 per USD before year-end 2021

The Baht has weakened sharply, as authorities have had to cope with the Delta variant amid heightened risks from the third wave of the COVID-19 pandemic that has proven to be difficult to control. The Baht hit a 15-month low at THB32.73 per USD during trading sessions on July 9, 2021, and risks pose... Read more

13 Jul 2021

Econ Digest

KR-ECI on the decline, reflecting that Thai households are concerned about the rising cost of living

The KR Household Economic Condition Index (KR-ECI) 2021 fell from 37.3 in May to 36.7 in June, while the 3-month Expected KR-ECI in June 2021 also dropped from 39.4 to 38.9 over the same period, suggesting that households were still concerned about the rising cost of living. Uncertainties about COVI... Read more

8 Jul 2021

Econ Digest

Export value for Thai durian hit record high as the demand from Chinese market is still strong

The export value of Thai durian reached a monthly record high of USD934.9 million in May 2021, with growth of 95.3%YoY, ranking in second place among Thailand’s key export agricultural products. Going forward, there will still be more opportunities to set new records. Thai durian has performed well ... Read more

1 Jul 2021

Econ Digest

China’s role in post-pandemic CLMV amid ongoing intense economic influence

China’s economic role in the CLMV has substantially increased over the past years, particularly in trade via a number of strategies, aimed at building its economic influence both physical connectivity and institutional connectivity, which has contributed to the acceleration of trade between CLMV and... Read more

30 Jun 2021

Econ Digest

One month of partial lockdown in six provinces may cause a net loss of at least THB40 billion

The government has announced partial lockdown measures, including the prohibition of construction work, primarily at large construction projects for at least 30 days in the maximum and strict controlled zones (dark red) of six provinces, namely Bangkok, Nakhon Pathom, Nonthaburi, Pathum Thani, Samut... Read more

29 Jun 2021

Econ Digest

ตลาดซื้อบ้าน ฟุบต่อปีที่ 3 “แผนกระตุ้นฯ-โควิด-วัคซีน” ตัวแปรการฟื้นตัว

คาดกิจกรรมการซื้อที่อยู่อาศัยในกรุงเทพฯและปริมณฑลปี 2564 หดตัวต่อเนื่องเป็นปีที่ 3 โดยมีตัวแปรการฟื้นตัวที่สำคัญคือสถานการณ์โควิด19 ความคืบหน้าในการฉีดวัคซีน และแผนกระตุ้นเศรษฐกิจ ... Read more

28 Jun 2021

Econ Digest

CLMV Countries may enjoy varying benefits from global economic recovery

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has revised upward its 2021 growth forecast for the global economy to 6.0% from the prior estimate of 5.5% to reflect its optimism on solid recovery in post-pandemic 2021. The recovery will be led by large economies, particularly the US and China, which may in t... Read more

25 Jun 2021

Econ Digest

ส่งออก แรงขับเคลื่อนหลัก เศรษฐกิจไทยปี 64 เดือน พ.ค. ขยายตัวสูงสุดในรอบเกือบ 11 ปี คาดทั้งปีโต 9.0%

ส่งออกไทยเดือนพ.ค. 64 ขยายตัวสูงสุดในรอบเกือบ 11 ปีที่ 41.59% YoY และเมื่อหักสินค้าเกี่ยวเนื่องกับน้ำมัน ทองคำ และอาวุธ ยุทธปัจจัย ส่งออกไทยเดือนพ.ค. ขยายตัวที่ 45.87% YoY ส่งผลให้การส่งออกไทย 5 เดือนแรกปีนี้ขยายตัว 10.78% YoY และเมื่อหักสินค้าเกี่ยวเนื่องกับน้ำมัน ทองคำ และอาวุธ ยุทธปัจจัย การส่งออ... Read more

24 Jun 2021

Econ Digest

Nano-finance business in 2021 slowed down by COVID-19 pandemic, waiting for economic recovery

Nano-finance has continued to grow since its first launch in 2015 but slowed down in 2020 due to the COVID-19 outbreaks. The major credit providers have suspended new lending due to the costs of customer screening and debt collection, resulting in a reduction in outstanding loan balance to THB17,441... Read more

22 Jun 2021

Econ Digest

MPC is expected to hold interest rate unchanged at 0.5%

KResearch expects that the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will keep its policy rate on hold at 0.50% during the meeting on June 23, 2021, in order to support Thailand's economic recovery amid low inflationary pressures. The Thai economy remains fraught with risks from the COVID-19 outbreak with a c... Read more

18 Jun 2021

Econ Digest

COVID-19 pandemic reverses global supply chain: foreign investment flows to Thailand is expected to increase by USD1.1-1.4 billion

The global outbreak of COVID-19 and the intensifying trade and technology wars between the US and China have prompted multinational companies in various industries to recognize the vulnerability of the global supply chain and to diversify the concentration risk in China. ... Read more

16 Jun 2021

Econ Digest

The Fed is expected to hold its policy rate steady at 0.0-0.25% during its meeting on June 15-16, 2021

KResearch projects that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will maintain its policy rate within the range of 0.0-0.25% at its meeting on June 15-16, 2021. ... Read more

15 Jun 2021

Econ Digest

Chinese carmakers’ gradual investment in Thailand set to create opportunities to expand export markets for cars made in Thailand

KResearch has assessed that Thai car exports in 2021 should improve from the previous year, thanks to the economic recovery of major trading partners in Oceania and Asia. At the same time, an increasing number of Japanese car manufacturers are using Thailand as a production base for export markets, ... Read more

10 Jun 2021

Econ Digest

Auto chip shortage…Automakers adjust plans to slow down production of over 44,000 vehicles in Thailand

Since the end of 2020, the global automotive industry has continued to experience chip shortages, mainly stemming from the structural vulnerability of the automotive chip manufacturing industry. Multiple reasons for fluctuation in chip supply and demand have added to the shortage, including COVID-19... Read more

9 Jun 2021

Econ Digest

Time for adjustment! The national EV strategic plan could drive the Thai automotive industry to become a ZEV production base

The National Electric Vehicle Policy Committee has set a challenging new target to achieve 100% of Thailand’s total vehicle production capacity as zero-emission vehicles (ZEVs) within 2035, to establish Thailand as one of the world’s key ZEV production bases. KResearch expects that this move will su... Read more

2 Jun 2021

Econ Digest

Unlock hemp and expand opportunities for beverage industry

After the Thai government approved the commercial use of hemp, effective from March 29, 2021, downstream industries have welcomed the decision and accelerated the planning of utilization and development of value-added products utilizing hemp. In particular, the food and beverage market has begun to ... Read more

1 Jun 2021

Econ Digest

“New School Year” made parents worried,educational expenses during the 2021 may shrink by 6.6%

KResearch recently conducted a survey on views of parents towards the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic during the 2021 school year. The poll was made on a random sample of 600 persons in the Bangkok Metropolitan area. The survey suggests that 88.5% of the parents are concerned and have no confidence if the... Read more

31 May 2021

Econ Digest

Demand for liquidity in public and private sectors accelerates in 2021, but remains manageable

While the COVID-19 outbreak will continue to prolong and delay the economic recovery, factors affecting liquidity in Thailand’s financial system are increasing this year, both from the government’s need to increase spending to support the economy and from private funding through corporate bonds and ... Read more

28 May 2021

Econ Digest

Build a savings portfolio to beat inflation

Thailand’s inflation data began to rise in April 2021, causing many parties to pay more attention to this issue as it comes at a time when the economy has not recovered yet. The headline inflation (CPI) rose to 3.41% in April this year, in line with inflation trends of many countries, although the a... Read more

27 May 2021

Econ Digest

Sweetness remains, Thailand’s sugar tax hike on hold this October

Competition in the beverage industry has continued to intensify recently, as evidenced by the launch of new products and the entry of new operators, which have affected the overhead costs of business. In addition, the global uncertainty surrounding the COVID-19 situation and the new wave of COVID-19... Read more

24 May 2021

Econ Digest

Additional borrowing decree of THB700 billion to enhance flexibility for the government to revitalize economy

The Cabinet recently has resolved to approve an executive decree to borrow an additional THB700 billion on the top of the previous THB1 trillion loan. This additional borrowing decree will help enhance the government’s flexibility to revitalize the country’s economy. The actual use of the new loan w... Read more

21 May 2021

Econ Digest

Rising inflation in contrast to weak economy affects real returns from savings and investments

Like many countries around the world, Thailand is now facing accelerating inflation. Thailand’s inflation rose 3.41%YoY in April 2021, which accelerated from -0.08%YoY in March 2021. Although the rising inflation in April 2021 was caused by the low base from last year due to the impact of the first ... Read more

20 May 2021

Econ Digest

Thai economy shrinks for the fifth consecutive quarter; relief measures remain important to alleviate household expense burdens

The Thai economy in the first quarter of 2021 shrank 2.6%YoY, less than the market forecast of -3.3%, driven mainly by the global economic recovery and domestic stimulus packages.... Read more

19 May 2021

Econ Digest

The Fed may need to implement QE tapering ahead of schedule as US inflation surges above market forecast

US inflation surged above market forecasts in April 2021: headline inflation rose 4.2%YoY while core inflation reached 3.0%YoY. Such increases were driven by improving domestic demand following accelerated vaccination efforts and continuous issuance of stimulus packages. On the other hand, supplies ... Read more

18 May 2021

Econ Digest

Third COVID-19 outbreak boosts growth in mobile banking and e-wallet transactions

The COVID-19 outbreak has accelerated the growth of mobile banking and e-wallet transactions. A survey conducted by KResearch found that Thai consumers conduct funds transfers and payments for goods and services 19 times per week via mobile banking and e-wallet applications, up from 17 times per wee... Read more

14 May 2021

Econ Digest

President Biden’s first 100 days: US economy set for strong recovery that Attract World Attention

On April 29, 2021, President Biden's 100th day address to the US Congress also holds significance for solving the COVID-19 crisis to restore the US economy, fiscal policy and international policy,especially stance towards China.... Read more

11 May 2021

Econ Digest

The third wave of COVID-19: A variable that may cause Thailand’s car sales to shrink 1.5% in 2021

KResearch expects that the third wave of the COVID-19 outbreak will cause domestic car sales in the second quarter of 2021 to be 150,000-155,000 units... Read more

10 May 2021

Econ Digest

Agricultural product prices likely be pressured by supply glut and the impact of COVID-19 during the remainder of 2021

Agricultural product prices in the first four months of 2021 were mostly favorable, especially the prices of rubber, cassava, sugar cane and oil palm, reflecting through Agricultural Price Index that rose approximately 10.4%. Supportive factor was the demand both at home and abroad despite facing th... Read more

5 May 2021

Econ Digest

Two Waves of COVID-19 may slash Thailand’s 2021 Inbound Tourists to 2.5 hundred thousand-1.2 million

KResearch projects that the two waves of COVID-19 within three months will have caused Thailand's number of inbound tourists to drop to 35,000 in the first half of 2021. Other pressure factors include the postponement of the tourism re-opening plan, limited availability of COVID-19 vaccines in Thail... Read more

4 May 2021

Econ Digest

MPC meeting on May 5, 2021: Policy rate to be maintained at 0.5%

KResearch expects that the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will keep its policy rate steady at 0.50% during the meeting scheduled for May 5, 2021 to support economic recovery... Read more

28 Apr 2021

Econ Digest

Consolidated financial statements of 9 banks in 1Q21 show that income from core businesses has yet to recover

KResearch has compiled key financial data from the consolidated financial statements of 9 commercial banks and their subsidiaries for the first quarter of 2021. The results reveal that these commercial banks and their subsidiaries recorded a net profit of THB46.071 billion, or a growth of 47.4%QoQ c... Read more

27 Apr 2021

Econ Digest

The Fed is expected to maintain policy rate of 0.0-0.25%at its meeting on April 27-28, 2021, and to maintain an accommodative monetary policy for the rest of the year.

KResearch projects that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will maintain its policy rate within the range of 0.0-0.25% at its meeting on April 27-28, 2021. While the US economy has shown signs of recovery following expedited vaccination efforts, with business activities able to return to normal amid the cons... Read more

26 Apr 2021

Econ Digest

Let’s plant hemp while waiting for cannabis to be unlocked

The Thai government has removed particular parts and extracts of cannabis and hemp from its list of illegal drugs (except for cannabis inflorescences and seeds), effective from December 15, 2020 onwards. This move has sparked widespread interest both from consumers and producers, and has brought up ... Read more

23 Apr 2021

Econ Digest

The share of Thailand’s xEV sales will account for more than half of total automobile sales in less than 10 years

Thailand's xEV vehicle registration in the first two months of 2021 was 9,164 units, or a growth of 42.6%YoY. KResearch expects that if the new outbreak of COVID-19 can be contained, in tandem with automobile manufacturers’ market promotion for xEVs being in the range of lower than THB1 million, the... Read more

23 Apr 2021

Econ Digest

Political turmoil may cause Myanmar’s economy to contract 8.5% in 2021

Amid positive signs seen in the global economic recovery, Myanmar is experiencing political turmoil at home. The country's image in the eye of Western nations is at peril after the US suspended the Trade and Investment Framework Agreement (TIFA) that it had entered into with Myanmar in 2013. This me... Read more

22 Apr 2021

Econ Digest

Chinese economy in 1Q21 grew 18.3%YoY, thanks to a low base in the previous year

China's economy in 1Q21 grew 18.3%YoY, this surge was primarily attributed to a low base in 1Q20. On a QoQ basis, which may better depict the present economic growth, China's economy grew by a mere 0.6% due to the fragility of private consumption, the uneven recovery of the manufacturing sector and ... Read more

21 Apr 2021

Econ Digest

Thailand’s 2021 GDP growth projected to slip to 1.8% due to the new wave of COVID-19

KResearch projects that the Thai economy will grow at slow rate of only 1.8% in 2021, against prior estimate of 2.6%, because the current COVID-19 pandemic in the country is much worse than the previous one. The increased concern over the domestic COVID-19 situation has prompted consumers to adjust ... Read more

20 Apr 2021

Econ Digest

Third Wave of COVID-19... Expected to Cause Loss of THB130 billion in Thailand’s Domestic Tourism Revenue

The latest figures from the Ministry of Tourism and Sports show that domestic tourism in Thailand surged by more than 30% in February 2021 compared to January 2021, when the country was hit hard by the second wave of COVID-19. Thailand’s domestic tourism market was again hit hard by the third outbre... Read more

19 Apr 2021

Econ Digest

COVID-19 vaccines will determine Thailand’s future

Thailand has reported a record daily rise in confirmed COVID-19 cases for several consecutive days after entering a new wave of the pandemic. On April 16, 2021, Thailand’s COVID-19 reproduction rate set a record high at 2.28%, which was higher than the world’s average rate at 1.11% and was also high... Read more

16 Apr 2021

Econ Digest

Third wave of epidemic affects confidence in household economic conditions

The KR-ECI rebounded to 40.4 in March 2021 from 39.5 in February 2021 due to the easing of outbreak control measures prompted by the improving COVID-19 situation, with the cancellation of all red zones and with all restaurants and entertainment venues being allowed to operate during specified shorte... Read more

12 Apr 2021

Econ Digest

Hit by COVID-19,Vietnam’s economy in 1Q21 grew below expectations

Vietnam's economy in 1Q21 grew 4.48 percent YoY, below expectations, owing to the impact of COVID-19 outbreak in early 2021. As a result, domestic consumption and economic activity have only seen limited recovery. Likewise, foreign direct investment (FDI) has also experienced a slowdown, particular... Read more

5 Apr 2021

Econ Digest

Persistently High Household Debt is expected in 2021 at 89-91% of GDP

According to the latest report on loans to household in 4Q20, household debt exceeded THB14 trillion as of the 2020 year-end, which is the highest ever recorded in 18 years. This figure amounts to 89.3 percent of 2020 GDP. In terms of growth, outstanding household debt, however, grew only 3.9 percen... Read more

1 Apr 2021

Econ Digest

Technology in restaurant business: The helper that goes beyond business fundamentals

The application of technologies in restaurant businesses: only paying attention to business fundamentals is not enough to cope with the rapidly changing business environment.... Read more

30 Mar 2021

Econ Digest

Do you know which Thai import and export commodities need to pass through the Suez Canal?

The Suez Canal is a fast channel for ocean cargo transportation between Asia and Europe which can save fuel costs and shorten transit time between the two regions. The incident in which the Ever Given, a huge cargo ship, ran aground on the Suez Canal causing a channel blockage will have a serious i... Read more

23 Mar 2021

Econ Digest

MPC Meeting on March 24, 2021: The MPC is expected to hold policy rate at 0.5% and focus on measures that effective address the issues rather than a policy rate cut

KResearch assesses that the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will likely keep its policy rate steady at 0.50% during the meeting scheduled for March 24, 2021 ... Read more

16 Mar 2021

Econ Digest

The Fed is expected to maintain policy rate at 0.0-0.25% during its meeting on March 16-17, 2021, aimed at supporting economic recovery

KResearch assesses that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will likely maintain its policy rate at 0.0-0.25% during the upcoming FOMC meeting that is slated for March 16-17, 2021. Although the US economy exhibits signs of recovery, it may take a while to fully bounce back, thus prompting the Fed to keep i... Read more

24 Feb 2021

Econ Digest

Thai exports in January 2021 grew in line with the global economy, 2021 Thai exports expected to grow at 3.0%

Thailand's outward trade posted steady growth over-month in January 2021 as the global economy began to recover. Excluding gold, Thai exports increased 6.3%, suggesting stronger demand for Thai products abroad, in particular automotive accessories, which surged 18.8%YoY. Shipments of work-from-home ... Read more

16 Feb 2021

Econ Digest

Thailand's policy interest rate lowered to near 0%, will QE be implemented in Thailand?

Quantitative easing (QE) is an unconventional form of monetary policy tool which is typically used by central banks of many countries and regions, including the United States, Europe, the UK and Japan, in helping address their economic woes after having to cut their policy interest rates to near 0%.... Read more

8 Feb 2021

Econ Digest

Myanmar’s economy projected to contract 2.5% after political upheaval

More dynamic relationships between Myanmar and Western powers have been imperative in the development of Myanmar's economy over the past decade. As a result, the country has reported relatively impressive economic growth on the back of increased foreign investment, thus helping bolster its exports a... Read more

29 Jan 2021

Econ Digest

Fed holds rates steady at 0.00-0.25% and continues to purchase bonds at a rate of USD120 billion per month

The Federal Reserve (Fed) ended its first meeting of 2021 on the night of January 27, 2021 (Thailand time) with the following highlights: ... Read more

27 Jan 2021

Econ Digest

Thai bond yields may gradually rise in 2021

The yields in the Thai bond market tend to gradually rise in 2021, especially medium term to under 10-year government bonds, due to two major factors: 1) the possibility of rising US treasury bond yields if the US is able to control the outbreak of COVID-19 and the approval of President Joe Biden’s ... Read more

26 Jan 2021

Econ Digest

FOMC Meeting on January 26-27, 2021: Fed expected to keep its monetary policy unchanged

KResearch projects that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will keep the US policy rate within the range of 0.00-0.25 percent, without announcing any additional monetary easing tools, at the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting to be held on January 26-27, 2021. While the Fed is expected to ... Read more

25 Jan 2021

Econ Digest

Thai exports face various challenges, with growth projected at 3.0% in 2021

The COVID-19 pandemic continues to persist worldwide, including in Thailand. In spite of this, hopes for COVID-19 vaccines, less stringent lockdown measures than the previous round of the pandemic and economic stimulus measures introduced by many countries supported Thai exports in December 2020 to ... Read more

22 Jan 2021

Econ Digest

Which direction are Thai bond yields going?

A new outbreak of COVID-19 that tends to become more severe has made it necessary for the authorities of many countries to urgently launch additional measures in order to help those affected and limit the risks that may occur to overall economic recovery. A clear example is that the US has released ... Read more

21 Jan 2021

Econ Digest

China's economic recovery plan in 2021 will focus on green and new infrastructure investment

The economy of China in the fourth quarter of 2020 grew by 6.5%YoY, amounting to full-year growth that exceeded projections, at 2.3% YoY. The figures reflect China's success in efficiently controlling the COVID-19 pandemic and implementing both monetary and fiscal stimuli in a timely and effective m... Read more

20 Jan 2021

Econ Digest

The US starts collecting AD duties on Thai vehicle tires

On December 30, 2020, the US Department of Commerce announced affirmative preliminary determinations in the antidumping duty (AD) investigations of passenger vehicle and light truck tires from Thailand, Taiwan, South Korea and Vietnam. Its final determinations in these cases are scheduled for mid-20... Read more

19 Jan 2021

Econ Digest

Brighter outlook for Thai agriculture in 2021, but close attention must also be paid to 3 risk factors, namely global competition, the Baht and COVID-19

Thai agriculture remained stable in 2020, supported by agricultural products prices that surged 4.5%YoY due to the drought that led to a huge drop in production in the first half of 2020. The exports of Thai agricultural products during the first 11 months of 2021 contracted only 3.9%YoY, putting le... Read more

18 Jan 2021

Econ Digest

Plant-based milk beverages provide vast opportunuities…meeting diverse needs

Soy milk is a common plant-based drink that is available in both freshly boiled and ready-to-drink bottled/boxed forms, and currently holds the largest market share in the plant-based milk beverage market. The soy milk beverage market has become increasingly competitive due to the entry of new opera... Read more

16 Jan 2021

Econ Digest

New investors must understand free float shares

During this period, investors in the stock market have probably heard the term “low free float shares” almost every day, because it is one of the suspicious factors that have caused the stock market to fluctuate so much recently. However, for new investors to learn more, they must first take a step ... Read more

15 Jan 2021

Econ Digest

Restaurant industry in 2021 is still highly risky

The restaurant industry in 2021 is still as highly risky as it was in 2020. The new wave of local COVID-19 transmissions, fierce competition among businesses and yet-to-recover purchasing power will affect any recovery of restaurants in 2021 to varying degrees. Full-service restaurants may recover o... Read more

14 Jan 2021

Econ Digest

Sugarcane harvesters… reduce PM 2.5 levels, add value to products

It is commonplace in Thailand to harvest sugarcane supplied to sugar mills by burning the sugarcane before cutting it, with an average of up to 65.5% of sugarcane being burned in the past 10 crop years. This practice increases local PM2.5 dust, in addition to resulting in payments to farmers being r... Read more

13 Jan 2021

Econ Digest

December KR-ECI fell for the first time in 4 months due to the new wave of the COVID-19 pandemic

Households were concerned about the overall economic and living conditions in December 2020 as well as for the following three months. The KR Household Economic Condition Index (KR-ECI) and the 3-month Expected KR-ECI fell from 41.0 and 41.1 in November 2020 to 40.2 and 40.7 respectively in December... Read more

12 Jan 2021

Econ Digest

Vietnam is listed as a currency manipulation country

The US designated Vietnam as a currency manipulation country, primarily due to Vietnam's interference in the Dong as evidenced by Vietnam’s net foreign currency purchases, which were equivalent to 5.1 percent of GDP, exceeding the benchmark set at 2.0 percent of GDP. The State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) ... Read more

11 Jan 2021

Econ Digest

BREXIT DEAL issue begins to ease... but COVID-19 pandemic remains severe

The United Kingdom (UK) and the European Union (EU) have finally reached an agreement prior to the end of the transition period in their post-BREXIT relationship. From January 1, 2021, both parties will continue to trade goods without import duties as before. KResearch views that the agreement will ... Read more

7 Jan 2021

Econ Digest

BOT introduces measures to stabilize the Baht and adjust balance in foreign exchange market ecosystem

Since the start of 2021, major global and Asian currencies, including the Chinese Yuan, have continued to strengthen while the US dollar has been facing sell-off, pressured by the Fed's quantitative easing and the US presidential transition. Meanwhile, the Thai Baht's value has surged past the level... Read more

7 Jan 2021

Econ Digest

Prospects…Thai air conditioner export

With exports of non-inverter air conditioners on a decline trend over the past year, Thailand has the opportunity to benefit from the increased demand for general inverter air conditioners in emerging countries. However going forward, in addition to its original competitor China, Thailand may face c... Read more

6 Jan 2021

Econ Digest

Auto hire purchase loans in 2021 are expected to recover in line with new car sales

The auto hire purchase industry is another area that has been affected by the COVID-19 pandemic. The outstanding balance of auto loans in the commercial banking system at the end of 3Q20 had grown at a slower pace of 3.5 percent. The slowdown resulted from a decrease in newly approved credit and a d... Read more

6 Jan 2021

Econ Digest

Private hospitals in 2021 have to adjust and prepare for competition and challenge

In the first 9 months of 2020, the revenue of listed private hospitals declined 14.2 percent (YoY) and the profit declined 54.8 percent (YoY). Under the assumptions of no second wave of local COVID-19 outbreak, of the government's gradual easing of travel restrictions to allow for more international... Read more

5 Jan 2021

Econ Digest

Thailand’s auto tire exports worrying…constrained by U.S. trade barriers

In recent years, it has become clear that the US has increasingly taken a variety of measures to protect its trade interests with its international trading partners. On 16th December 2020, the US Department of Treasury labeled Vietnam as a currency manipulator to benefit its exports in the report of... Read more

30 Dec 2020

Econ Digest

Thai Auto Industry 2021: With no further lockdowns, car sales may exceed 850,000 units

The domestic auto market has been severely affected by the COVID-19 pandemic. KResearch projects that sales in the Thai automotive industry in 2020 will reach 770,000 units, a contraction of 23.6% YOY. However, the trend for vehicle sales in Thailand will have a chance to rebound in 2021, provided t... Read more

29 Dec 2020

Econ Digest

New Year holidays 2021: Bangkok residents adjust travel plans

The new wave of the COVID-19 pandemic has dealt a blow to Thai tourism, which had just begun to bounce back. Although the government has issued measures to control the COVID-19 outbreak, it has yet to restrict cross-provincial travel. A KResearch survey shows that more than 54.8% of Bangkok resident... Read more

29 Dec 2020

Econ Digest

Construction costs continue to surge in the first half of 2021

KResearch views that overall construction costs may increase by approximately 1.03-1.33% per project in 2020, as COVID-19 preventive measures may drive up construction costs by 0.2-0.5% per project while labor costs will rise by another 0.83% per project due to labor shortages. ... Read more

28 Dec 2020

Econ Digest

Although COVID-19 vaccines are coming, the global demand for medical gloves will still reach 235 billion pieces

Thailand is the world's second largest exporter of rubber gloves. In the first ten months of 2020, the export value of Thai rubber gloves reached USD1.7251 billion or grew by 72%YoY, in which medical surgical gloves accounted for 15% of the total export value while other types of gloves (including g... Read more

25 Dec 2020

Econ Digest

Thai exports still face challenges in 2021

Thai exports exhibited improving signs in November 2020 by shrinking only 3.65%YoY compared with a 6.71%YoY contraction in October 2020. Excluding oil-related products, gold and arms, November exports contracted only 2.09%YoY.... Read more

23 Dec 2020

Econ Digest

Resurgence of COVID-19 May Lead to Roughly THB45 Billion in Losses within One Month

A new wave of COVID-19 originating from the shrimp market in Samut Sakhon province has led to an increase in infection cases and resulted in a lockdown in this province from December 19, 2020 to January 3, 2021. Infected individuals have been found to have spread to many areas in multiple provinces.... Read more

22 Dec 2020

Econ Digest

The impact of the southern floods in early December 2020 will continue until March 2021, dragging down the production of rubber and palm oil, causing income loss of more than THB6.6 billion.

KResearch assesses that southern rubber and palm oil growers may lose approximately THB6.6 billion in income due to the impact of flooding from December 2020 to March 2021. ... Read more

19 Dec 2020

Econ Digest

Monitoring List... the Thai Baht is monitored by the U.S.

The U.S. Department of the Treasury (USDT) publishes the report of the Macroeconomic and Foreign Exchange Policies of Major Trading Partners of the United States twice a year, in order to review and monitor its trading partners’ policy directions. The U.S. has set three conditions/criteria in determ... Read more

18 Dec 2020

Econ Digest

MPC meeting on December 23, 2020: Policy rate is likely to hold at 0.5% after the economy starts to recover

KResearch expects that the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will keep its policy rate steady at 0.50% during the meeting scheduled for December 23, 2020, since there are signs of gradual recovery in the Thai economy. Meanwhile, the economy is expected to benefit continuously from the Thai government’... Read more

14 Dec 2020

Econ Digest

The Fed is expected to hold its policy rate steady at 0.00-0.25% during its meeting on December 15-16, 2020 to maintain policy space for coping with COVID-19

KResearch assesses that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will likely keep its policy rate steady at 0.00-0.25% and will not announce additional monetary easing tools during the Federal Open Markets Committee (FOMC) meeting slated for December 15-16, 2020, ... Read more

10 Dec 2020

Econ Digest

Although Bangkok residents cut their budget for the 2021 New Year festival, the total spending will reach THB30 billion

A survey conducted by KResearch on spending behavior of Bangkok residents during the 2021 New Year festival shows that 42.5% of respondents are choosing to celebrate the festival in Bangkok to avoid traffic jams, as some respondents have been traveling during the long-holiday since the beginning of ... Read more

8 Dec 2020

Econ Digest

5 Questions for new gold investors

Gold has been one of the most profitable assets of 2020. On December 4, 2020, the spot gold price in the global market rose 21% from the end of last year to USD1,840 per ounce, while the domestic gold price rose 22% to THB26,250 per Baht(Thai unit of measurement). For new investors interested in inv... Read more

4 Dec 2020

Econ Digest

Thailand is striving towards an electric vehicle production base in the region

Although the latest EV promotion package which expired at the end of 2018 received a good response, reflected by the number of companies applying for investment promotion, only some of them have made actual investments, due to the impact of various factors such as the continuing limitations of globa... Read more

3 Dec 2020

Econ Digest

Guideline for upgrading of Thai pharmaceutical industry: promote investment and support research and development

The increase in Thailand’s total population and the proportion of the elderly population resulting in an aging society are pressures on the management of the public health system, and the government’s public health budget is expected to continuously increase. An analysis of Thailand’s the public hea... Read more

2 Dec 2020

Econ Digest

Trump suspended GSP privileges and Biden supports electric vehicles. It's time for Thai auto parts manufacturers to embrace BEVs.

The export of Thai auto parts to the US market must be changed now that Donald Trump has announced the suspension of GSP privileges, which went into effect January 1, 2021, and which brought back a 2.5% import tax after the tax was waived under GSP. The auto parts that have had GSP privileges suspen... Read more

26 Nov 2020

Econ Digest

Things to Know Before Opening an FCD Account

On November 20, 2020, the Bank of Thailand (BOT) issued measures aimed at easing pressure on Baht to help balance the flow of funds into and out of Thailand. One of the measures announced on the same day was regarding BOT’s foreign currency deposit (FCD) account, which allows Thais to deposit funds ... Read more

25 Nov 2020

Econ Digest

Myanmar … after Aung San Suu Kyi won her second term in office

Prior to the government under the leadership of Aung San Suu Kyi, the value of foreign investment in Myanmar averaged only USD2.083 billion per year, with China as the largest foreign investor in the country, aiming at investment in natural resources such as copper, iron and jade mining, etc. Since ... Read more

24 Nov 2020

Econ Digest

Thai exports falter after continuous recovery

While the global economy shows a continued recovery, Thai exports shrank by 6.71 YoY in October 2020 to USD19.37 billion, but minus related petroleum products, gold and munitions, exports fell by 4.89%, resulting in Thai exports shrinking by 7.26 percent YoY in the first 10 months.... Read more

23 Nov 2020

Econ Digest

The BOT introduces additional measures to manage the Baht and balance fund flows

There was an influx of capital flows in Thai stock and bond markets after the US Presidential election and amid hopes for COVID-19 vaccines. During November 1-19, 2020, such capital flows reached THB69.7 billion, representing the highest level in 17 months, while the Baht hit a new 10-month high of ... Read more

20 Nov 2020

Econ Digest

Indonesia set to become Thailand’s rival in BEV production as the world's largest nickel ore* producer

Electric vehicles (EVs) have increasingly made their presence felt within ASEAN; in particular, investment in EV production is growing fast in Thailand and Indonesia. Currently, Thailand has an edge over Indonesia in terms of EV manufacturing, thanks to its complete auto-parts supply chain and highe... Read more

18 Nov 2020

Econ Digest

Thai economy begins to recover in 3Q20… government measures expected to drive continued GDP recovery in 4Q20

The Thai economy in the third quarter of 2020 contracted at a better-than-market-expected rate of -8.0% YoY as economic activities recovered, partly due to a smaller-than-expected contraction in exports from pent-up demand after the easing of lockdown measures in Thailand and many other countries. M... Read more

18 Nov 2020

Econ Digest

Thai Baht appreciated 3.4% after foreign capital flowed into Thai stock and bond markets with the highest volume in 17 months in the wake of Biden’s victory in the US presidential election

Preliminary results show that Joe Biden from the Democratic Party has been elected the 46th President of the US, leading to a major shift in investment portfolios around the world. Thai stock and bond markets are among Asian money and capital markets that benefited from this shift of investment. ... Read more

18 Nov 2020

Econ Digest

KR-ECI increased for four straight months in October, supported by higher income and employment in the agricultural sector

The KR Household Economic Condition Index (KR-ECI) increased from 38.1 in September 2020 to 39.5 in October of the same year... Read more

17 Nov 2020

Econ Digest

MPC meeting on November 18, 2020: Policy rate likely on hold at 0.5% in order to maintain policy space in case of necessity

KResearch expects that the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will keep its policy rate steady at 0.50% during the meeting scheduled for November 18, 2020 ... Read more

16 Nov 2020

Econ Digest

Guidelines for Food Delivery Businesses

Food Delivery is one of the most popular and attractive industries during and after the spreading of COVID-19. It has grown due to changes in consumer behavior and investment by domestic and foreign food delivery platform operators. KResearch projects that the number of food deliveries for the whole... Read more

13 Nov 2020

Econ Digest

Be prepared...Tackling the new standard of water footprint

In the world of agricultural production, products that require an efficient water footprint are becoming increasingly important and will play an ever more significant role in agriculture in the future. Products with a low water footprint will gain more attention from consumers who are aware of water... Read more

11 Nov 2020

Econ Digest

Factors to be considered in new investment era Must be beyond risks and returns

In 2020, we have seen fluctuations in asset prices around the world, including gold, stock and alternative assets such as Bitcoin. Although all assets have faced heavy selloffs from investors seeking liquidity during the COVID-19 pandemic, the prices of various assets have gradually recovered after ... Read more

10 Nov 2020

Econ Digest

The domestic tourism market: Thais favour mountainous natural attractions

Thailand's domestic tourism market has been continuing to grow after the COVID-19 situation in the country eased and the government launched measures to stimulate domestic tourism. Based on data provided by the Ministry of Tourism and Sports, the number of domestic tourists in the third quarter of 2... Read more

9 Nov 2020

Econ Digest

Thai industries to partially recover in 2021…but will fail to return to pre-COVID-19 levels

Under the assumptions that there will be no serious resurgence of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic in Thailand, that the majority of people in Thailand will receive COVID-19 vaccines in late 2021, and that the domestic political situation will not significantly impede the government’s budgetary d... Read more

5 Nov 2020

Econ Digest

Keep an eye on Thai exports to the US after the 2020 US election

Thai exports to the US in 2021 will mainly benefit from the recovery of the US economy, which is expected to have passed its lowest point this year. Meanwhile, the policies of the new US leader will become another factor that simultaneously drive the US economy and support Thai exports to accelerate... Read more

30 Oct 2020

Econ Digest

Beautiful accommodation and impressive spots for taking photos become main factors for current tourists in choosing accommodation

The hotel and accommodation industries are sectors of the tourism industry that have been hard hit by the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, and especially in the first half of 2020 have suffered a revenue loss of approximately THB256 billion due to the absence of foreign and Thai tourist arrivals. Th... Read more

28 Oct 2020

Econ Digest

The policy of promoting the use of domestic steel will boost domestic steel production while pushing up construction costs of government projects.

For the past several years, Thailand's steel industry has encountered challenges that stem from price competition against steel imports from China due mainly to steel oversupply in China’s market. Since 2014, Chinese steel manufacturers have cleared out their excessive stock via exports to markets i... Read more

27 Oct 2020

Econ Digest

Keep an eye on the 2020 US presidential election while assessing the direction of the US and Thai economies

Regarding the 2020 US presidential election held on November 3, 2020, KResearch views that if Joe Biden becomes the new President, the US economy may grow at least 3.0% in 2021, which would be higher than the projected growth of less than 2.0% in the case where Donald Trump secures his reelection du... Read more

26 Oct 2020

Econ Digest

Global demand has rebounded from the previous month, supporting Thai exports in September to shrink at a slower pace of 3.9%YoY

Thai exports in September 2020 stood at USD19.6213 billion, or a contraction of 3.9%YoY, amid a rise in global demand compared to the previous month. Thai exports over the first nine months shrank 7.3%YoY, driven by the exports of electronic products and electrical appliances that grew 11.6% after f... Read more

22 Oct 2020

Econ Digest

The Chinese economy in 3Q20 grew 4.9%YoY…thanks to domestic consumption and exportation of medical and electronic products

The Chinese economy in the third quarter of 2020 grew 4.9%YoY, continuing the positive trend from the second quarter of 2020 in which a 3.2% growth YoY was seen. This expansion can be attributed to the gradual recovery of private consumption, particularly retail sales that grew 3.3% YoY in September... Read more

19 Oct 2020

Econ Digest

“Shop Dee Mee Kuen” program will bolster the retail sector and stimulate spending during the year-end of 2020

The government has introduced a series of spending stimulus measures. Among them is the “Kon La Khreung” program (Let’s Go Halves or the government’s 3,000-Baht cash handout program) to help small daily necessity product retailers, such as “Blue Flag” stores, groceries and small retail shops. ... Read more

16 Oct 2020

Econ Digest

Cloud solutions services grow despite the COVID-19 crisis

After being hit by the COVID-19 pandemic, especially during the lockdown period, many business organizations in Thailand have implemented work-from-home measures. Therefore, the continuity of business activities has become an urgent task and will support cloud solutions services in 2020 to grow expo... Read more

15 Oct 2020

Econ Digest

Although September KR-ECI improved, households remain concerned about debt repayments

The KR Household Economic Condition Index (KR-ECI) in September 2020 stood at 38.1, improved slightly over that reported for August 2020, suggesting that Thai households were more optimistic about their living conditions. The 3-month Expected KR-ECI also increased to 39.7 in alignment with the gradu... Read more

14 Oct 2020

Econ Digest

Kin Jae Festival in Bangkok will be poorly attended due to reduced participation as a result of COVID-19 and economic conditions

Kin Jae (Vegan Food) Festival this year will fall on October 17-25, 2020. Normally, the festival is well received by regular consumers groups including Thai-Chinese people who eat vegan food as a religious practice, and new-generation consumers who eat vegan food for health purposes. However, sluggi... Read more

12 Oct 2020

Econ Digest

Global tourism may not recover until 2024

The coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic has caused unprecedented losses for tourism activities around the world. In the first half of 2020, the number of international tourists decreased by more than 439 million compared with the same period last year, and the loss in international tourism revenue was a... Read more

9 Oct 2020

Econ Digest

“Shop Dee Mee Kuen” program will boost consumption in the final quarter of 2020

The government has launched its “Shop Dee Mee Kuen” program (Shop and Payback), which offers taxpayers income tax deductions when spending up to THB30,000, in order to stimulate consumption over the 70 day period from October 23rd to December 31st 2020. KResearch expects that the program will help b... Read more

8 Oct 2020

Econ Digest

Digital personal loans increase accessibility to loans for Thai people

Under the Digital Personal Loan Business Rules issued by the Bank of Thailand on September 15, 2020, lenders can use alternative data, e.g. receipts from water bills, electricity bills and telephone bills, as well as online spending information, to assess the borrowers’ ability or willingness to rep... Read more

7 Oct 2020

Econ Digest

China adopts stockpiling policy, triggering global agricultural commodity price tensions

In September 2020, China sent positive signals regarding its 14th Five-Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development (2021-2025), which will be implemented starting in 2021. In particular, the issue of increasing food reserves as a source of food security again at an accelerated pace may le... Read more

6 Oct 2020

Econ Digest

The medical equipment and device industry will become a sunrise industry despite the improving COVID-19 situation

The total market value of Thailand’s medical equipment and device industry in 2019 exceeded THB90 billion. Medical equipment and devices are divided into: 1. Disposable medical supplies such as medical gloves, syringes and catheters; 2. Durable medical supplies such as hospital beds and wheelchairs;... Read more

5 Oct 2020

Econ Digest

Beware! The importation of used electronics may turn into the importation of electronic waste

The Ministry of Commerce has announced the Notification Regarding the Prohibition of the Importation of Electronic Waste into the Kingdom B.E. 2563, effective from September 15, 2020, in an effort to save the environment and protect public safety. ... Read more

5 Oct 2020

Econ Digest

Skyrocketing household debt amid a shrinking economy

The latest report from the Bank of Thailand revealed that Thailand’s 2Q20 household debt had risen following the disruption of economic activities during the COVID-19 pandemic. The outstanding household debt hit an 18-year high of 83.8% of the GDP, rising from 80.1% of the GDP recorded during 1Q20. ... Read more

3 Oct 2020

Econ Digest

Money and capital markets may become volatile…Close attention must be paid to the US President’s illness

Money and capital markets fluctuated following the news that US President Donald Trump had been diagnosed with coronavirus (COVID-19). Risky assets experienced sell-offs, while the direction of the US Dollar was mixed (it largely depreciated against the Yen but appreciated against other currencies).... Read more

2 Oct 2020

Econ Digest

“Let’s Go Halves” program: to reduce cost burdens for consumers and increase sales volumes for retail stores

The new stimulus package called “Kon La Khreung” (Let’s Go Halves or the government’s 3,000-Baht cash handout program), effective October-December 2020, sets conditions that differ from previous spending stimulus measures. In addition to the subsidy that is capped at 10 million people and at THB3,00... Read more