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5 Nov 2020

Econ Digest

Keep an eye on Thai exports to the US after the 2020 US election

        Thai exports to the US in 2021 will mainly benefit from the recovery of the US economy, which is expected to have passed its lowest point this year. Meanwhile, the policies of the new US leader will become another factor that simultaneously drive the US economy and support Thai exports to accelerate. KResearch views that Thai exports to the US are set to make a rapid turnaround with a 10-12% growth in 2021 with an export value of USD36.7-37.3 billion if Joe Biden leads the country, while Thai exports under President Donald Trump’s policies may experience limited growth at below 5% with an export value of approximately USD35 billion.  
 
         KResearch views that the following groups of exports will have the best potential in cracking the US market after the election: 1) Essential consumer goods, particularly food such as canned/processed seafood, rice, canned fruit, pet food and agricultural products, will continue to their robust growth next year, regardless of which candidate will be in power; 2) luxury goods such as gems and jewelry, automobiles, electrical appliances and furniture will likely benefit more from Joe Biden’s economic stimulus policies; 3)intermediate goods for production will be supported by both the US economic recovery and the policies of Joe Biden, which put emphasis on investment in basic infrastructure and clean energy, including the expansion of the 5G telecommunications network, thus boosting demand for steel and related products, solar panels and diodes, as well as computers and electronics. Furthermore, policies proposed by the Democrat Party will also allow Thai products to benefit indirectly from a resurgence in US purchasing power, which will undoubtedly boost demand for consumer goods in every category – including demand for Thai intermediate goods from manufacturing countries that deliver the goods to consumers in the US.

          However, no matter who will become the next president of the US, their common ground is to isolate China. This means that investment in manufacturing sectors will continue to be diversified to other countries in the future in order to continuously reduce the risk, which will cause the overall trade between Thailand and China, especially in the supply chain related to technology products manufactured or assembled in China, to reduce accordingly.

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Econ Digest